BP plc : Could beat the consensus in first quartely
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04/17/2012 | 06:34am
Opinion : Bullish above 430 GBp
Target price : 500 GBp
Stop loss: 410 GBp
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LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
Integrated Oil / Gas |
In the month after golf Mexico’s disaster the share fell more than 50%. From this point the company gained more than 45% but the way to come back on the 2010’s highest is still long. The bullish movement was supported also by oil prices’ high level, especially concerning London Brent oil.
BP will report Q1 2012 results on 1 May before market. Since 2000, the company used to beat the consensus with the biggest surprise on the Q1. In fact in the first quarterlies BP has beaten the consensus in average with surprise rate of 9%, according to JP Morgan data. Thomson Reuters’ consensus attends first quarterly revenues of $87 893 millions with diluted earnings per share of $0.29. The company trades at 6.3x Thomson Reuters’ 2012 earnings per share estimate.
On the short-term the stock is within a bearish trend. This trend is under pressure by 20-periods moving average’s movement. In daily data, the share is testing the GBp 442 short-term support. Also in weekly data, the share offers a good point of entry ; in fact it trades close to long-term support and in the area where 50 periods moving average crosses that 100 periods.
We suggest to take a long position on the stock with a target price around 500 GBp, long-term resistance in both daily and weekly data. Seen lasts first quarterly, we could forecast a good next earnings release, but is necessary to pay attention to previous competitors’ publications, as Exxon on 26 April.
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Valuation |
2013e |
2014e |
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PER (Price / EPS)
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4,68x |
8,13x |
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Capitalization / Revenue
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0,40x |
0,41x |
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EV / Revenue
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0,46x |
0,48x |
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EV / EBITDA
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3,97x |
3,92x |
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Yield (DPS / Price)
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5,03% |
5,42% |
| Profitability |
2013e |
2014e |
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Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales)
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7,54% |
8,38% |
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operating laverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales)
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-0,28x |
- |
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Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue)
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8,57% |
5,10% |
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ROA (Net Profit / Asset)
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7,96% |
9,00% |
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ROE (Net Profit / Equities)
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13,2% |
13,1% |
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Rate of Dividend
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23,6% |
44,1% |
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