By Talking Points
- EURAUD responds to key support 1.5020/57- bullish invalidation
- Weekly opening range breach shifts focus higher
- Event risk on tap from Australia & Eurozone over the next 48hours
EURAUD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Broader Technical Outlook
- EURAUD responds to key support zone 1.5020/56- Constructive above this mark
- Near-term focus on channel resistance- Breach targets 1.5448/53, 1.5596, 1.5778
- Support break invalidates scalp bias- support targets at 1.4823/73 (December Low)
- Momentum signature well supported ahead of 40-threshold-bullish(Topside trigger pending)
- Key Event Risk Ahead: Australian Employment report Wednesday, Eurozone CPI on Thursday
EURAUD Scalp Chart
Notes: We’ve been following the progression of this trade closely in DailyFX on Demand and the initial reaction off the 1.5020/56 key support zone and a subsequent break of the weekly opening range high has shifted our scalp focus to the topside on pair. The pair now looks for convictions on the breach above channel resistance with a move past/close above 1.5313 validating the breakout.
It’s worth noting that the monthly opening range low did give out yesterday but the snap-back of the recovery back within the initial range and a breach above the weekly high has me discounting the initial break. A support RSI trigger is pending and if triggered will take us out long-exposure in the near-term. Such a scenario shifts our immediate focus lower and we’ll let the oscillator reset with a pullbacks to offer favorable long triggers. Bottom line: looking to buy dips/breaks of resistance while above 1.5020.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Significance |
Resistance Target 1 | 30min | 1.5278 | 76.4% Retracement |
Resistance Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 1.5313 | 50% Fibonacci / Pivot |
Bearish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 1.5354/79 | Last Week’s High / 61.8% Retrace |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 1.5420 | Soft Resistance / Pivot |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | 1.5448/54 | Fib Confluence / May 2010 High / Jan ORH |
Break Target 3 | 30min | 1.5475 | 78.6% Retracement |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 1.5531 | 88.6% Retracement |
Break Target 5 | Daily / 30min | 1.5596 | 2014 High |
Break Target 6 | Daily | 1.5778 | 61.8% Fib Extension |
Support Target 1 | 30min | 1.5240/43 | 23.6% / 61.8% Exts / TL Dating 12/27 |
Support Target 2 | 30min | 1.5212 | Weekly ORH / Pivot |
Support Target 3 | 30min | 1.5170 | 38.2% Fib Extension |
Support Target 4 | 30min | 1.5114 | 50% Fib Ext / Jan 3 Low / Pivot |
Bullish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 1.5020/57 | 61.8% & 1.618% Fib Exts / Jan Low |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 1.4975 – 1.5005 | 38.2% Retrace / 78.6% Ext |
Break Target 2 | Daily | 1.4948 | 50DMA / Pivot |
Break Target 3 | Daily /30min | 1.4873 | 100% Fib Extension |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 135 | Profit Targets 31-34pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- Scalping the GBPNZD Reversal- Bias Bullish Above 1.9753
- NZDUSD Scalps On Deck- Watch 8300
- AUDUSD Scalps Eye Key Resistance- Weekly Opening Range in Focus
- Updated 2014 Scalp Targets- USD, EUR, CHF, CAD & Gold in Play
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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