Talking Points:
- EUR/USD November Range Remains in Focus Ahead of German, Euro-Zone CPI.
- USD/CAD Preserves Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of Canada 3Q GDP.
- USDOLLAR Slips to Fresh Weekly-Low; RSI Struggles to Push Back Into Overbought Territory.
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EUR/USD
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- EUR/USD may make another run at the monthly low (1.2356) as Germany’s & Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show a further slowdown in price growth.
- Despite growing speculation for a QE announcement at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) December 4 meeting, seems as though Governing Council will be more willing in 1Q 2015 as they prepare for the next take up of the targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (T-LTRO).
- DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd turned net-short EUR/USD on November 25, with the ratio currently holding at -1.28.
USD/CAD
- Long-term outlook for USD/CAD remains bullish as the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains reluctant to further normalize monetary policy; need a break of the bearish trend in price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to revert back to the approach of looking for opportunities to buy-dips.
- May see a larger pullback in USD/CAD as it retains the downward channel from earlier this month, but will retain a constructive outlook amid the string of failed attempts to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1220.
- Will continue to look for a long-term series of higher highs & lows, but need to see a move & closing price back above 1.1310 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1320 (61.8% expansion) to look for fresh highs in USD/CAD.
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Read More:
Price & Time: December Dollar Surprise?
EUR Short Covering Elusive as More Talk of QE Inspires Bears
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 11317.96 | 11358.43 | 11309.3 | -0.21 | 86.60% |
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index slips to fresh weekly low of 11,308 amid the lackluster data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy; remains vulnerable to month-end flows especially with the Thanksgiving holiday on tap.
- As the RSI struggles to hold in overbought territory, may see a larger USDOLLAR pullback going into the first full-week of December; will keep a close eye on the monthly opening range especially ahead of the Fed’s December 17 meeting.
- Fails attempts to close above 11,312 (78.6% retracement) to 11,351 (78.6% expansion) may spur a move back towards 11,120 (161.8% expansion) to 11,138 (61.8% expansion).
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Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 21) | 12:00 | -- | -4.3% |
Durable Goods Orders (OCT) | 13:30 | -0.6% | 0.4% |
Durable Goods ex Transportation (OCT) | 13:30 | 0.5% | -0.9% |
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (OCT) | 13:30 | 1.0% | -1.3% |
Non-Defense Capital Shipments ex Aircrafts (OCT) | 13:30 | 0.5% | -0.4% |
Personal Income (OCT) | 13:30 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Personal Spending (OCT) | 13:30 | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (OCT) | 13:30 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (OCT) | 13:30 | 1.4% | 1.4% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (OCT) | 13:30 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (OCT) | 13:30 | 1.5% | 1.6% |
Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 22) | 13:30 | 288K | 313K |
Continuing Claims (NOV 15) | 13:30 | 2350K | 2316K |
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (NOV) | 14:45 | 63.0 | 60.8 |
U. of Michigan Confidence (NOV F) | 14:55 | 90.0 | 88.8 |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) | 15:00 | 0.5% | -1.1% |
Pending Home Sales (YoY) (OCT) | 15:00 | 2.5% | 2.2% |
New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT) | 15:00 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
New Home Sales (OCT) | 15:00 | 471K | 458K |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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