Euro / US Dollar (EUR/USD) : USD 1.20 as a target
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07/26/2012 | 05:21am
Opinion : Bearish under 1.2188 USD
Target price : 1.198 USD Potential: 1.40%
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Spain and Greece, combined with Moody's, depress investors despite the temporary reprieve granted to the Euro by an official of the ECB.
The European Finance Ministers agreed to provide up to 100 billion euros in financial assistance for the Spanish banking sector. Even though the bailout funds (EFSF / ESM) were expected to finance directly institutions in difficulty at the time of the last European summit, Madrid will finally bear risks. Moreover, while the Iberian government just lowered its growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014, the debt could increase after the bailout request from the region of Valencia, which is short of cash and prompting Catalonia to investigate this possibility and leading long-term rates above 7.50%, a new record.
The hypothesis of an international aid to Spain now becomes credible. Meanwhile, officials from the Troika are back in Athens to discuss the reforms needed in return for the bailout money. The press spread rumors, based on European sources: according to "Der Spiegel", the IMF wants to stop aid to Greece ; Reuters adds that the peninsula might need a new debt restructuring.
Moody's also punished Euro. It lowered outlook on Luxembourg, Netherlands and especially Germany, where manufacturing activity has contracted at its lowest level for three years.
And even if Edward Nowotny, a member of the ECB, said the ESM could easily increase its capacity by obtaining a banking license, risk aversion predominates.
Graphically, thanks to the technical rebound, mainly due to short covering, the security returns close to a major threshold at USD 1.2188. This scenario offers an interesting trading opportunity: investors can anticipate a break of USD 1.20, level below which a stop hunting strategy might work.
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Mathieu Burbau
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