A tumble in capital markets and rise in the Dollar to close this past week has set traders' fear and speculation alight. Is a seismic market move underway or is this nervous energy after a long bout of quiet?
US Dollar Forecast – What Kind of Dollar Rally Arises from ’Hike of Necessity’, Full Risk Off?
The Dollar – like most other markets’ benchmarks – has caught a glimpse of volatility after the seasonal transition, but still trades in a broader range. Participation and conviction are still absolute necessities to reviving a trend - whether for the Greenback or investor sentiment, bullish or bearish.
British Pound Forecast –British Pound Teeters but isn’t done Rallying Just Yet
The British Pound matched its highest levels since the UK Referendum on the heels of strong industry survey data, but a late-week US Dollar recovery meant the GBP/USD finished lower for the first week in three. Further GBP volatility seems likely ahead of key economic data releases and a potentially significant Bank of England interest rate announcement due in the days ahead.
Japanese Yen Forecast –USD/JPY Short-Term Recovery to Gain on Upbeat US Data, Hawkish Fed
The key developments coming out of the U.S. economy may drive USD/JPY higher next week as Federal Reserve officials talk up bets for a 2016 rate-hike, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains under pressure to further embark on its easing cycle as the central bank prepares its ‘comprehensive assessment’ of the economy.
Australian Dollar Forecast –Australian Dollar May Suffer Deeper Losses on Fed Rate Hike Bets
The Australian Dollar may suffer deeper losses as swirling Fed rate hike speculation undermines the relative appeal of the yield-sensitive currency.
New Zealand Dollar Forecast –If the Global Yield Hunt Remains, So Does Kiwi’s Upside
The week ended on a sour note for high-yielding currencies like Emerging Markets & the New Zealand Dollar. Mid-Week, the New Zealand Dollar got a nice bump thanks to stronger China Data. The Chinese data was enough to push NZDUSD to a 2016 high of 0.7488. However, the end of the week led to a
Chinese Yuan Forecast – USD/CNH Eyes Upper Bounds on Fed Hike Odds
The volatility in Yuan rates elevated this week: the USD/CNH broke the support of 6.6832 that was held last week and found new support around 6.6650. In terms of the upper band, the pair rose towards the psychological level of 6.7000 once again on Friday.
Gold Forecast –Gold Prices to Face Central Bank Volatility as Sentiment Stretches
Gold prices softer this week with the precious metal off 0.17% to trade at 1318 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Heading into the holiday weekend the near-term risk remains for further losses before making a more significant low in early September trade.
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