Price & Time: Key Timing Relationships Coming Up For USD/CHF

Talking Points

• EUR/USD crawling along the year’s low
• AUD/USD rebounds off key retracement
• USD/CHF entering key cyclical period

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• EUR/USD remains weak and just above the lows of the year
• Our near-term trend bias islower in the euro while below 1.2990
• A close under 1.2820 is needed to re-instill downside momentum and open up a key pivot around last year’s low in the 1.2750 area
• An important turn window is eyed over the next few days
• A close over 1.2990 would turn us positive on the euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced long short positions while below 1.2990.

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• AUD/USD fell to its lowest level since early February yesterday before rebounding off the 78.6% retracement of the year’s range near .8835
• Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below .8980
• A close below 1.0930 is needed to trigger a more serious decline
• An important turn window closed yesterday
• A close over .8980 would turn us positive on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like holding only reduced short position while below .8980.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CHF

I have written a lot recently about the importance of the next few days for EUR/USD from a cyclical/timing perspective. Not surprisingly it also looks to be important for USD/CHF, but what makes the Swiss particularly interesting is that in addition to a few shared timing relationships with the euro it also has a few of its own aligning around the same time. The most notable perhaps is the 3.14 year interval from the 2011 low around the start of October. USD/CHF is also showing signs of fatigue via extremes in sentiment (DSI recently touched mid-single digits) and volume divergences. Key levels to monitor heading into this turn period look to be the 61.8% retracement of second half 2013 decline by .9440 and key Gann relationships at .9470 and .9540. Weakness under .9300 is needed to confirm that some sort of top is in place while continued strength past the first week of October would undermine this “cyclical resistance”.

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This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX