Many elements put forward a general slowdown in global demand for oil. Recent macroeconomic data in China are going in this direction, and the demand for black gold in the country should be gradually reduced.
On June 11th, OPEC has revised downward its estimate of global demand for 2013. The next day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced its forecast across the globe by 80,000 barrels per day (2013).
A resurgence of the dollar, thanks to its safe-haven status, could also cause a mechanical effect of lower oil prices.
Technically, Brent prices are consolidating within a very narrow USD 100/105 trading range, since mid-April. There is no trend emerging and the volatility is low. However, the trend remains bearish as long as prices stay below the 20-period moving average.
Our last month short scenario is still valid. Investors will have held their short positions with a stop-loss above USD 109 and two downside targets respectively positioned at USD 98 and USD 91.