What’s inside:
- Silver and gold breaking down
- Lower parallel breached, looking for break of recent swing low at 17.13
- Keeping an eye on gold for cues as it is the weaker of the two
Silver prices are in the process of rolling over, with the lower parallel we have been watching as support giving way to sellers in the past few hours. This significantly enhances the odds that the lower high we have been watching develop has been put in place.
Watching gold: It is the weaker of the two precious metals, so interest is high on seeing how it leads to the downside. So far, so good for silver shorts. Gold is breaking down below a more meaningful level of support at the time of this writing. A series of lower highs and flat bottoms (descending wedge) we have been watching unfold suggested it would, but this morning selling through horizontal support at 1275 is providing confirmation. We are looking for a move under 1260 in the short-term at the least, sub-1250 looks probable with a little time.
These developments on the smaller time-frame in precious metals are coming following the sharp daily reversals we saw last week from significant overhead levels. It’s a case of the smaller time-frame confirming the larger time-frame.
The break in silver below the lower parallel opens the path up for a move towards and below the 6/16 swing low at 17.13. The expectation is that it will break, leading to another leg lower off last week’s peak before potentially finding good short-term support in the 16.70/16.90 region. Gold is already amidst its next leg lower.
Silver [Gold] 2-hr
Sustained trade above the recent swing high at 17.62 will complicate the case for lower prices, while a breakout above 18 will altogether force us to consider alternatives.
Head’s up: Today and tomorrow the Fed Chairwoman – Janet Yellen – will be testifying before Congress, with a start time at 14:00 GMT.
See trader positioning in real-time with SSI.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX, and/or email him directly at probinson@fxcm.com.
original source
