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TOTAL : Anticipation of a pull back on EUR 37

02/11/2013 | 03:18am
Opinion : Bullish above EUR 37
Target price : EUR 39.5 Potential: 2.92%
Stop loss: EUR 36.5
Integrated Oil & Gas

In the past few sessions, TOTAL share price has suffered from a sharp fall and is now coming back on significant level support.

From a fundamental viewpoint, TOTAL is undervalued in terms of enterprise value. Based on the current price, its market capitalization, minus its net debt, represents 0.56 times its revenues. This valuation is just 7.35 and 7.11 times the two next years earnings.

Currently the stock is oversold and, in the mid-term, it is trading in a bearish trend. In the short term, this trend is reversed upon contact with the EUR 37 area. TOTAL should be able to confirm its increase in the next trading sessions. This support is a trading opportunity in order to anticipate a technical rebound towards EUR 39.5 and by extension towards EUR 40.6.

Investors could take a long position near EUR 37 to target EUR 39.5. A stop loss will be set at EUR 36.5.

TOTAL : TOTAL : Anticipation of a pull back on EUR 37
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Financial Ratios

Size 2014e 2015e
Capitalization 111 095 M€ -
Entreprise Value (EV) 133 317 M€ 133 685 M€
Valuation 2014e 2015e
PER (Price / EPS) 10,3x 9,97x
Capitalization / Revenue 0,63x 0,65x
EV / Revenue 0,76x 0,78x
EV / EBITDA 4,57x 4,43x
Yield (DPS / Price) 5,33% 5,41%
Profitability 2014e 2015e
Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales) 10,6% 10,8%
operating Leverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales) -1,11x -0,26x
Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) 5,91% 6,31%
ROA (Net Profit / Asset) 7,18% 6,60%
ROE (Net Profit / Equities) 12,9% 12,4%
Rate of Dividend 55,0% 53,9%
Balance Sheet Analysis 2014e 2015e
CAPEX / Sales   11,1% 10,9%
Cash Flow / Sales (Taux d'autofinancement) 11,7% 12,8%
Capital Intensity (Assets / Sales) 0,82x 0,96x
Financial Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA) 0,76x 0,75x
Income Statement Evolution
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