Talking Points:
- USD/JPY Struggles to Clear 102.00; Bearish RSI Momentum Remains in Play
- Gold Tests Former Support; Still Treated as Commodity Rather Than Currency
- USDOLLAR Coming Up Against Trendline Resistance Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC
Index | Last | High | Low | Daily Change (%) | Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index | 10492.83 | 10495.01 | 10467.13 | 0.22 | 120.32% |
USD/JPY:
- Continues to threaten near-term resistance (101.80-102.00); JPY pairs in focus as EU prepares more sanctions on Russia.
- With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retaining the bearish trend carried over from the previous year, USD/JPY remains at risk for a lower-high as long as it holds below the July high (102.25).
- Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Koji Ishida sees 2% inflation target being achieved in the middle of the projected period; looks as though we will hear more of the same from Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at the August 8 policy meeting.
Gold:
- Downside targets remain favored as Gold carves lower-high in July & fails to retain bullish RSI momentum.
- Favor ‘selling bounces’ in bullion as it struggles to push back above former support around 1306-1310; Gold still being treated as a commodity rather than an alternative currency as it mimics the price action in Silver.
- Next key downside objective comes in around 1277, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the July 2013 advance.
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Read More:
Price & Time: What Is Going On With Gold?
EUR/USD Bearish Sub-1.3475; EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY May Have Other Ideas
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
- Another close above the 10,470 pivot to generate larger correction in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index; next topside target comes in around 10,508-509.
- Will watch channel resistance from here, but the bullish RSI momentum suggests a further advance for the greenback.
- U.S. 2Q GDP & Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may set the tone for August trade given recent strength in Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures.
- Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
- Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)
Release | GMT | Expected | Actual |
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (MAY) | 13:00 | 0.30% | -0.31% |
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAY) | 13:00 | 9.90% | 9.34% |
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAY) | 13:00 | 171.25 | 170.64 |
Consumer Confidence (JUL) | 14:00 | 85.4 | 90.9 |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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