Regularly in these columns, we mention the relationship between a currency's performance and its country's monetary policy: Jerome Powell's outbursts, followed by the ECB meeting, laid the foundations for EURUSD appreciation. On the one hand, the Fed Chairman clearly hinted at a possible rate cut at the June Monetary Policy Committee meeting. On the other, Christine Lagarde felt that, while the trajectory taken by inflation was encouraging, considering a rate cut was premature. In other words, there's an interesting window of opportunity of a few months, during which the dollar could lose some of its superb strength, particularly against the euro (but also against sterling).

For example, the EURUSD has broken out of the consolidation phase underway since the start of the year by breaking above 1.0805, and is already approaching intermediate resistance at 1.0980, before considering 1.1108. Sterling is ahead of schedule, as it is already breaking through its annual highs at 1.2800, with 1.2880 ahead of 1.309.

In the commodity currencies, the aussie is following the same trend since breaking above 0.6563, with 0.6684 in sight before 0.6853. The kiwi is lagging a little further behind, currently testing resistance at 0.6193, which, once overcome, would enable it to reach 0.6347.