The FOREX trend, and the Dollar in particular, appears paradoxical, with the greenback stalling slightly (-0.1% to 103.78 for the $-Index, but the Euro gaining 0.25% to 1.0860, the Pound +0.35%), while yields are easing in Europe (-3.5Pts on our OATs to 2.8650% and -1.2Pts on Bunds to 2.4000%), while T-Bonds are tightening by +5Pts to 4.230%.

But the most volatile currency of the day is the Yen, which is down 0.3% against the $ and -0.5% against the Euro at 163.50.
The Turkish Lira has also reached a new low, falling -0.85% against the Dollar (to 31.55) and -1.05 against the Euro.

The Dollar is thus weakening 48 hours ahead of Jerome Powell's speech and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary meeting on Thursday (a 'status quo' is widely anticipated).
The ECB's Governing Council is likely to continue to be vigilant regarding the disinflation process underway on the Old Continent, and to postpone the debate on the first rate cuts... which in any case will not occur until the FED has 'drawn first blood'.

The Dollar is also weakening 4 days ahead of the US employment figures (NFP Friday): the consensus is for an average of 200.000 job creations in February after January's fireworks display, which resulted in 353,000 new positions, i.e. double the market's forecasts.

Note the feverish rise in Bitcoin (+6%), which is close to its absolute records (around $66,640), and in the ounce of gold, which resolutely broke the $2,100 barrier ($2,115, the December 2023 record equaled) and erased the $2,077 resistance level.

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