The Energy Information Administration in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday predicted a slight downturn in demand for renewable diesel this year, while predicting a slight uptick in demand for the biofuel in 2025.
The agency estimated U.S. renewable diesel demand this year will average 243,000 b/d, down 6,000 b/d from February, and set projected demand for the drop-in fuel in 2025 at an average of 307,000 b/d -- up 3,000 b/d from the month prior.
And it also decreased February's projection that renewable diesel production this year will average from 226,000 b/d to 218,000 b/d and kept last month's 2025 output forecast at 290,000 b/d.
Renewable diesel imports this year will average 25,000 b/d, up 1,000 b/d from the February report, EIA said. It kept its projection for 2025 imports at 17,000 b/d.
The agency said it expects domestic biodiesel demand in 2024 will average 103,000 b/d, up 2,000 b/d from projections in the February STEO. EIA also kept its 2025 demand forecast at 80,000 b/d. The 2023 estimate of 125,000 b/d in the February STEO was boosted to 126,000 b/d.
EIA also said it expects biodiesel production this year will average 100,000 b/d, up 1,000 b/d from what was projected in February, and it kept 2025 production at 87,000 b/d -- level with the month prior.
In addition, the report boosted by 1,000 b/d projected U.S. ethanol demand this year at 936,000 b/d, while also setting the 2025 demand projection 1,000 b/d lower than last month at 938,000 b/d.
EIA said it believes U.S. ethanol output this year will average 1.02 million b/d, level with February, and boosted the 2025 production estimate this month at 1.03 million b/d.
The agency cut by 1,000 b/d its supply and demand projection for "other biofuels" -- a category that includes sustainable aviation fuel and renewable naphtha -- to an average of 29,000 b/d this year. EIA expects supply and demand for each category to average 55,000 b/d next year, which is level with the February STEO.
EIA once again projected there will be no net imports of "other biofuels" in any of the forecast years.
The agency boosted the forecast for ethanol blended with gasoline this year at an average of 940,000 b/d. It said it expects ethanol blended with gasoline in 2025 will also average 940,000 b/d.
The report projected U.S. liquid fuel consumption this year will average 20.40 million b/d, up from the previous month's 20.39 million b/d forecast. The report also expects U.S. liquid fuel consumption will average 20.59 million b/d in 2025.
EIA said it expects global liquid fuels consumption this year will average 102.43 million b/d on a monthly basis, up from 102.42 million b/d last month.
This month's report put 2024 U.S. gasoline consumption at an average of 8.95 million b/d, up from 8.92 million b/d in February. Gasoline demand next year, the agency said, will average 8.91 million b/d.
This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Reporting by Patrick Newkumet, pnewkumet@opisnet.com; Editing by Jordan
Godwin, jgodwin@opisnet.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-12-24 1647ET
