It's been a week of virtually nothing, for T-Bonds, Bunds and OATs alike, which ended the week with less than a 1 basis point spread from one Friday to the next.
It has to be said that the week was virtually devoid of any high-profile publications or interventions by central bankers (the BoE, which met on Thursday, did not act as a "game changer".
Economic indicators return next week, and more volatility is in store for the fixed-income markets.
Yields neither eased nor deteriorated this week... but it was a festival of funicular rises on stock indices, which multiplied absolute records: what do equity managers anticipate that bond markets don't?

Equities are euphoric, while Treasuries are looking a little grey: Bunds (2.52%) and OATs (3.0250%) are feeling the pinch with +2 basis points, while Italian BTPs are up +1.5 basis points at 3.863%.
Fixed-income managers, who were betting on the European Central Bank (ECB) easing rates by 25 basis points next month, seem a little less sure of themselves.... and much less so than equity managers.

Across the Channel, Gilts added +4.5pts to 4.213%... which did not prevent the FT-100 from setting a 6th consecutive all-time record and a 12th record in 14 sessions.

In the United States, yields on ten-year US Treasury bonds rose by +5.7pts to 4.505%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose by +6pts to 4.867%.

This tension seems to have nothing to do with the US consumer confidence index published by the University of Michigan.
US household sentiment fell by almost -10Pts in May, to 67.4: its lowest level for six months, according to preliminary figures from the University of Michigan survey released this Friday (analysts were forecasting a much smaller decline, to around 76.2).

In detail, the current conditions component dropped to 68.8 from 79 last month, while the expectations component fell to 66.5 from 76 in April.




Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.