Like the CAC40 and E-Stioxx50, the bond markets ended the day at (or close to) equilibrium.

Volatility remained close to zero, and volumes were anecdotal, which is not surprising in the absence of any catalysts, especially from American operators (celebrating President's Day).

Our OATs and Bunds remained heavy (slightly in the red throughout the session) with yields marginally off by +1Pt at 2.89%, Italian Bunds and BTPs showing the same spread at 2.41%, and 3898% respectively.
Once again, British Gilts ended up the red lantern, stretching +4pts to 4.15%.

Our OATs did not react to Bruno Le Maire's comments on TF1's '20H' on Sunday: the French Minister of the Economy and Finance announced this weekend a downward revision of the country's growth forecasts for 2024, from 1.4% to 1% (as did the IMF, but the OECD expects no more than 0.6%, while the consensus of economists is for 0.8%).
As a result, the French government will have to make 'ten billion euros in additional savings' (including 800Mn in budget cuts for 'my renovation bonus' and 1MdE in cuts to 'development aid').

The first important date for the bond sector will be Wednesday evening, with the publication of the 'minutes' of the January meeting, which saw the Fed keep rates unchanged.

Expectations of a rate cut in the US have recently been sharply revised downwards in the wake of good figures on growth, employment and inflation.
Note that several members of the Fed will be speaking at the end of the week.

As for US figures (likely to have an impact on rates), we'll have to wait until Thursday to discover the preliminary results of S&P Global's surveys of private sector purchasing managers (PMI).



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