OPENING CALL
Stock futures pointed to a slight rebound on Friday ahead of the jobs report for March.
The stakes are high for a stock-market rally that's faltered this week as investors assess the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal, on average, look for nonfarm payrolls to show a rise of 200,000 in March, with the unemployment rate expected to tick down from 3.9% to 3.8%. Growth in hourly wages is expected to slow to a year-over-year rate of 4.1%, from 4.3% in February.
While either a "too hot" or "too cold" jobs figure is often sufficient to spark a market selloff, the biggest danger on Friday is firmly tilted toward a stronger-than-expected reading, Sevens Report Research said.
"Investors are on edge the Fed may delay rate cuts from June until later in the summer [or late in 2024] if we get another hot employment report, " it said.
"If that occurs, expect a partial repeat of Tuesday."
Premarket Movers
Apple will be laying off more than 600 workers following the tech giant's decision to cancel its electric-car project. Shares rose 0.2%.
HubSpot was up 1.4% after the stock jumped 5% on Thursday following a report from Reuters that said Alphabet has been talking to its advisers about making an offer for the marketing software company.
Tesla was up 0.5%. Shares rose to as high as $177.19 on Thursday, recouping losses that hit the stock following the first-quarter delivery report.
Post Close Movers
Bio-Path Holdings said in a filing it had reached a deal for an at-the-market share offering. Shares were down 6.3%.
Kura Sushi's sales rose sharply in the fiscal second quarter, topping analysts' estimates. Shares rose 7.1%.
Watch For:
Employment Report for March; Canada Labour Force Survey for March; Chevron investor day
Today's Headlines/Must Reads:
- China Shock 2.0 Sparks Global Backlash Against Flood of Cheap Goods
- The Hot Sale Going on at Department Stores: Their Shares
- California Businesses Take On Gavin Newsom Over Tax Hikes
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar was firmer on concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could spread to Iran-and a consequent rise in oil prices-and after Federal Reserve officials cast doubt on rate-cut prospects.
In particular, Neel Kashkari said if inflation continued to move sideways he could question whether rate cuts were needed at all. This comment was notable given the latest oil-price rise, Deutsche Bank said.
Focus turns to U.S. jobs data which could add to the rate-cut debate, although "substantial surprises" may be needed to impact Fed policy, Deutsche Bank said.
The euro could extend its gains against the dollar if U.S. payrolls data show a rise of below 200,000, ING said.
This would add to recent signs that the U.S. jobs market is softening, leaving the Federal Reserve "in a comfortable position to start cutting [interest rates] in the summer."
A sub-200k U.S. payrolls print should pave the way for the euro to rise back towards the 100-day moving average around $1.0875, ING said.
Bonds:
SEB Research said 10-year Treasury yields are expected to trade rangebound at 4%-4.5% in the second quarter with focus on the upper half of the range unless softer signals emerge from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Bund yield, meanwhile, is expected to trade in a 2.2%-2.5% range, it said.
For the 10-year Bund yield to decline towards 2%, European Central Bank expectations would need to soften dramatically, "which we regard with 170bp of rate cuts already discounted for the coming two years."
Energy:
Brent crude hit $91 a barrel as worries of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East and intensifying attacks against energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine have raised concerns over global supplies, at a time when the physical market is already showing signs of tightness.
Metals:
Base metals and gold were weaker as the market mood sours ahead of U.S. jobs data, with Swissquote Bank saying higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and hotter-than-expected wages growth could potentially delay the Federal Reserve's plan for interest-rate cuts.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Samsung to Fortify U.S. Chip Revival by Swelling Its Texas Investment to $44 Billion
Samsung Electronics plans to more than double its total semiconductor investment in Texas to roughly $44 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, a significant breakthrough in the U.S.'s quest to make more of the world's cutting-edge chips.
The South Korean company's new spending will be concentrated in Taylor, Texas, where Samsung is building a semiconductor hub and has other nearby existing operations, the people said. The additions include a new chip-making factory, and a facility for advanced packaging and research and development.
Fulfillment Startup Stord Expands With Logistics Acquisition
Fulfillment services provider Stord is acquiring another third-party logistics company as slowing e-commerce growth pushes firms to find new ways to boost revenue.
Stord, which provides end-to-end fulfillment services to help merchants compete on shipping speeds with big retailers such as Amazon.com and Walmart, said on Friday it has purchased ProPack Logistics, a company that provides warehousing for small- to medium-size businesses.
Japanese Government Watching Currency Movements Closely, Prime Minister Says
TOKYO-Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said his government wouldn't rule out any measures in dealing with foreign-exchange rates, responding to a question about the yen's recent weakness.
In a group interview with Western media organizations Friday, Kishida said his government was watching foreign-exchange moves closely and believed that excessive moves were undesirable.
German Factory Orders Rose Slightly in February
German manufacturing orders edged up in February, reflecting only a moderate rebound as demand for goods remains sluggish.
Orders were 0.2% higher than the prior month, German statistics office Destatis said Friday, a little lower than the 0.5% uptick expected by a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
China Is Targeting U.S. Voters and Taiwan With AI-Powered Disinformation
SAN FRANCISCO-Online actors linked to the Chinese government are increasingly leveraging artificial intelligence to target voters in the U.S., Taiwan and elsewhere with disinformation, according to new cybersecurity research and U.S. officials.
The Chinese-linked campaigns laundered false information through fake accounts on social-media platforms, seeking to identify divisive domestic political issues and potentially influence elections. The tactics identified in a new cyber-threat report published Friday by Microsoft are among the first uncovered that directly tie the use of generative AI tools to a covert state-sponsored online influence operation against foreign voters. They also demonstrate more-advanced methods than previously seen.
Why Immigration Is Now the No. 1 Issue for Voters
The economy has always been the top issue at the ballot box for 65-year-old Garfield Cousins. But this year Cousins, an independent voter in an Atlanta suburb, said the sustained surge of migrants at the southern border will for the first time drive his decision in a presidential election.
While illegal border crossings have repeatedly set records over the past few years, polls show a more recent sharp increase in the number of voters, like Cousins, who rank immigration as their top concern-even above the economy and inflation. Voters say they worry the migrant influx is affecting other aspects of life-from crime and fentanyl to national security and government spending-as Washington has been unable to resolve the problem.
Biden to Make Second Attempt at Large-Scale Student Loan Forgiveness
WASHINGTON-The Biden administration is poised to issue a proposal aimed at reducing or eliminating student loan balances for millions of borrowers, according to people familiar with the matter, marking President Biden's second attempt at large-scale loan forgiveness.
The regulations, which are set to be issued as soon as next week, come after the Supreme Court last year overturned the administration's first debt cancellation plan, which would have wiped away up to $20,000 in student debt for borrowers making less than $125,000 a year.
Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings:
None scheduled
Economic Calendar [ET]:
0830 Mar Labour Force Survey
1000 Mar Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
Stocks to Watch:
Visionary Holdings Names Marc Kealey as Vice Chairman
Expected Major Events for Friday
05:00/JPN: Feb Indexes of Business Conditions - Preliminary Release
06:00/GER: Feb Foreign trade price indices
06:00/GER: Feb Manufacturing orders
06:00/GER: Feb Manufacturing turnover
06:00/UK: Mar Halifax House Price Index
06:00/UK: 1Q Halifax House Price Index: UK Regional Breakdown quarterly release
06:45/FRA: Feb Industrial production index
08:30/UK: Mar Narrow money (Notes & Coin) and reserve balances
08:30/UK: Mar S&P Global UK Construction PMI
09:00/ITA: 4Q General Govt Quarterly Accounts
12:30/CAN: Mar Labour Force Survey
12:30/US: Mar U.S. Employment Report
14:00/CAN: Mar Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
19:00/US: Feb Consumer Credit
All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Friday
374Water Inc (SCWO) is expected to report for 4Q.
ACELYRIN Inc (SLRN) is expected to report $-0.93 for 4Q.
Advent Technologies Holdings Inc (ADN) is expected to report for 4Q.
Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) is expected to report $-0.03 for 3Q.
Bird Global Inc (BRDSQ) is expected to report for 4Q.
Byrna Technologies Inc (BYRN,BYRN-L) is expected to report $-0.09 for 1Q.
Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc (CSSE) is expected to report $0.02 for 4Q.
ContraFect Corp (CFRXQ) is expected to report for 4Q.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
04-05-24 0623ET
