All eyes were on the US central bank at the beginning of the month, with investors hoping that inflation data (CPI and PPI) would bring some relief. But that was forgetting the perfidy of the economic statistics. Although they were generally in line with expectations, for the moment they have done absolutely nothing to move the lines. Inflation is slowing down, but it is still well above the Fed's target and, most importantly, it is moving within the different components. A year ago, with the crisis in Ukraine, energy was the main driver of inflation. Then came services, wages and now food.

Indeed, expectations about future monetary policy are running high. At the time of writing, the status quo is overwhelmingly in favor (88.6% according to the CME Fedwatch tool) while a rate cut this summer is still expected. Yet, according to a Goldman Sachs study, "the Fed has rarely followed a pause with [rate] cuts within six months when the labor market was tight." In plain English, the Fed could indeed pause for a few months before beginning a new round of rate hikes, especially if the labor market remains as buoyant as it is now.

Until the situation is resolved, the U.S. 10-year yield remains hopelessly within its horizontal consolidation channel of 3.31/3.64% bounds. This is where the parallel with black powder comes in. We will wait quietly for the direction of the exit before positioning ourselves via ETFs - or futures for the ambitious - and playing the explosive effect of channel exits.