The debate on inflation and the expected cut in key interest rates is still raging. The publication of an ISM manufacturing index for March, which was in expansionary territory for the first time in 16 months, set off a firestorm that has since been fanned by several of America's leading monetary authorities. Even those classified as more doves than hawks seem more wary of future rate cuts. Thus, before the release of the employment report last Friday, the odds of a rate cut in June had fallen to 60% from over 75% just two weeks ago.

And what about employment?

The US created 303k non-agricultural jobs in March, against a forecast of 214k. On the other hand, both the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings came out in line with expectations, at +3.8% and +4.1% annualized respectively.

Instead of fueling the scenario of a soft landing for the US economy, investors now see any resilience as an impediment to a rapid easing of key interest rates. The immediate effect is to put pressure on world stock markets, with government bond yields refusing to give up ground. For example, the US 10-year yield had the luxury of briefly breaching 4.35% to touch 4.40/43%. The chart structure remains constructive above 4.07%, even if, in an ideal world, upside potential should be limited to the 4.55/60% threshold, whose breach alone would call into question our long-term bearish scenario.