In these columns, I occasionally play the game of balancing the positives and negatives that are driving the equity markets. It's an exercise in gauging the balance, or imbalance, of the forces at work.

In terms of factors dragging down the stock market, we find high interest rates weighing on the economy, the stalled Chinese economic engine, tensions over US debt and, more recently, renewed tensions in the Middle East, but also the fragility of the real estate market, consumer spending under pressure, high energy prices, bond yields whose risk/potential ratio is overshadowing equities, the cost of financing, which will lead to breakage among growth companies, or political uncertainties in several countries, led by the United States.

Meanwhile, we haven’t got much on the opposite side of the scale. One example is corporate earnings, which seem to be holding up well, even if a few cracks are appearing in the figures published for the third quarter. We should also mention the incredible resilience of employment, with unemployment rates remaining very low in most Western countries. And that's about it for the tangible elements, although we should no doubt add the natural optimism of investors, based on the principle that nothing can compete with the equity markets over the long term. With such an imbalance between the negative and the positive, it's easy to understand why financiers are focusing on monetary policy. For beyond all the above, the main lifeline remains the adjustment of interest rates. This is the market's main card in the event of a downturn. For reasons of posture and credibility, central banks are obviously reluctant to enter this arena, especially as they are still grappling with excessively high inflation. But lowering interest rates, or the mere possibility of lowering interest rates, remains a lethal weapon.

On this subject, the European Central Bank meets on Thursday. It is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. At least, that's what the vast majority of economists expect, and they're wondering when the ECB will reverse the trend on interest rates. The date of April 2024 is beginning to circulate. As for the United States, we'll have to wait until the following week to find out the Fed's official position. The market no longer believes in another rate hike, despite the imprecations of central bankers. Fed boss Jerome Powell is due to deliver a speech on Wednesday, but he is unlikely to address monetary issues, since the statutory period of silence that precedes the institution's decisions began on October 21. There will be plenty of macroeconomic announcements this week. Are corporate purchasing managers in good spirits in October? Find out on Tuesday with the PMI indicators for the major economies. On Wednesday, the German Ifo confidence index and US new home sales figures are due. The end of the week will be even hotter. Thursday sees the ECB's rate decision, followed by the first estimate of US Q3 GDP. PCE inflation and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index will round off proceedings on Friday.

On the corporate front, we have the results this week from Microsoft, Alphabet, Hermès and Novartis for Tuesday. Meta, Boeing and Porsche on Wednesday. Amazon and Intel on Thursday. Exxon Mobil and Sanofi on Friday. Plus a few hundred more.

Meanwhile, no one seems to dominate the race to become speaker at the House of Representatives. The very conservative Jim Jordan threw in the towel over the weekend after failing to get elected. Nine Republicans are in the race, in an attempt to end a stalemate that has lasted more than two weeks. Without a speaker, the chamber cannot move the legislative process forward.

The VIX index, which measures market tension, is climbing towards 22 points, its highest level since mid-March. A month ago, it was still at 13 points. It had climbed to 32 points following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Today's economic highlights:

Only one indicator today, the Chicago Fed's activity index.

The dollar is worth EUR 0.9425 and GBP 0.8215. The ounce of gold is trading at USD 1980. Oil rises slightly, with North Sea Brent at USD 92.12 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 87.99. The yield on 10-year US debt reached 4.98%. Bitcoin is trading at USD 30,600.

In corporate news:

  • Chevron announced on Monday the acquisition of Hess in an all-stock transaction worth $53 billion. Chevron is offering $171 for each Hess share, implying a premium of around 4.9% over the last share close. Chevron lost 1.6% before opening, Hess gains 3.1%.
  • Apple - Chinese e-commerce platforms are offering major promotions on Apple's iPhone 15, which analysts say is selling less well than the previous iPhone in the country. Apple shares were down 0.6% in pre-market trading.
  • Alphabet - Japan's competition authority said Monday it had opened an investigation into search engine Google for possible violation of anti-monopoly rules.
  • Cigna - A group of pharmacies filed a class action accusing Express Scripts, the pharmacy benefit management unit of the Cigna group, of colluding with another company to charge higher fees and reimburse pharmacies at lower rates.
  • Roche announced on Monday that it had acquired the Telavant treatment for inflammatory bowel disease for an initial sum of $7.1 billion from the Roivant Holdings and Pfizer groups. Roivan gained 17% before the opening.
  • Merck - Chinese drugmaker Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical announced on Monday that Merck had abandoned the joint development of two cancer drug candidates that have yet to enter clinical trials.
  • Farfetch - European authorities have approved Farfetch's purchase of a stake in its rival Yoox Net-A-Porter, owned by Richemont, the Swiss luxury group announced on Monday.
  • P10 - A former long-time Goldman Sachs executive, Luke Sarsfield, is to take over as CEO of the asset management company, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. P10 did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
  • Textainer - The container leasing company said on Sunday that US infrastructure investor Stonepeak would buy it for around $2.1 billion. Investors will receive $50 per share, a 46.41% premium to Friday's close. The company is valued at $7.4 billion, including debt, in the deal.
  • Biomarin Pharmaceutical - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Friday approved the expanded use of a Biomarin Pharmaceutical treatment to treat children under 5 suffering from the most common form of short-limbed dwarfism.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Amazon.com: Zacks downgrades to neutral from outperform with a target price of USD 148.
  • Ameren corp: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 80 to USD 77.
  • American electri: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 88 to USD 82.
  • Atmos energy: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 122 to USD 116.
  • Biomarin pharmac: Bernstein upgrades to market perform from underperform with a target price of USD 82.
  • Centerpoint ener: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 28 to USD 27.
  • Citizens financi: Wolfe Research upgrades to peerperform from underperform.
  • Cms energy corp: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 58 to USD 55.
  • Deliveroo plc: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 1.30 to GBP 1.25.
  • Diamondback ener: Citi downgrades to neutral from buy with a price target raised from USD 160 to USD 170.
  • Entergy corp: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 98 to USD 94.
  • Eog resources: Citi downgrades to neutral from buy with a price target reduced from USD 144 to USD 135.
  • Eversource energ: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 72 to USD 61.
  • Exelon corp: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 43 to USD 41.
  • Huntington banc: Wolfe Research upgrades to peerperform from underperform.
  • Marriott: HSBC initiates a buy recommendation with a target price of USD 233.
  • Pinterest: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold with a target price raised from USD 27 to USD 32.
  • Pioneer natural: Stifel downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 281 to USD 258.
  • Ppl corp: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 26 to USD 25.
  • Procter & gamble: Redburn Atlantic maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 159 to USD 161.
  • Prudential plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 1460 to GBX 1430.
  • Salesforce: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to neutral from overweight with a price target reduced from USD 268 to USD 232.
  • Sempra: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 78 to USD 76.
  • St. james's place: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperform rating with a price target reduced from GBX 1245 to GBX 935.
  • Thermo fisher: Bernstein maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 603 to USD 535.
  • Tullow oil: Jefferies upgrades to hold from underperform with a price target raised from GBX 25 to GBX 35.
  • Unilever plc: Redburn Atlantic maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from GBX 3900 to GBX 3820.
  • Unity software: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to neutral from overweight with a price target reduced from USD 48 to USD 30.
  • Vistry group plc: RBC Capital maintains its underperform recommendation with a price target reduced from GBX 875 to GBX 850.
  • Walgreens boots: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 27 to USD 30.
  • Waters corp: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 280 to USD 267.
  • Wec energy group: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 83 to USD 81.