1338 GMT - Despite some clear risks, Moonpig has many positive traits and given that shares are down 75% since its IPO, they are likely to be more than discounted given the current price, Liberum analysts say in a note. The company holds around 70% of the online greetings cards market and can count on an Ebitda margin of around 25% and GBP50 million of free-cash-flow a year, they say. However, the online greeting-card-and-gift platform's higher prices compared with peers and increasingly tougher competition could hit its growth, the U.K. brokerage says. Liberum starts its coverage on the stock with a buy rating. (michael.susin@wsj.com)

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Ferguson's FY 2023 Forecast Upgrade Unlikely to Move Consensus

1255 GMT - Ferguson's 2Q performance was broadly in line, with upgrades to its FY 2023 forecast unlikely to cause significant changes to consensus at the operating level, Citi's Ami Galla says in a note. The supplier of plumbing and heating products has modestly upgraded both interest expense and capex guidance ahead of market expectations, Galla notes. Therefore, investor focus will remain on the underlying volume trends across its end markets, continuing overhead inflation and incremental organic investments across its operations, Galla says. (michael.susin@wsj.com)

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UK Retailers Fall as Consumer Spending Squeeze Bites

1239 GMT - U.K. retailers fall after data showed consumers tightening their belts amid the cost-of-living crisis. U.K. total retail sales rose 5.2% in February, below the 6.7% increase in February 2022, according to the British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor. The outlook will stay tough and consumers are still limiting non-essential spending, KPMG says. "With overall inflation running around 10% and food inflation sitting nearer 20%, total February sales growth of just 5% will be eating hard into retail margins and masking the true state of the sector's health," KPMG's U.K. head of retail Paul Martin writes, adding that with increases in energy and other bills on the horizon, consumers will stay wary. Ocado, Burberry, Sainsbury's and Next are among the biggest top-flight fallers. (philip.waller@wsj.com)

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Henkel's 4Q Result Reveals Sequential Volume Deceleration

1147 GMT - Henkel's fourth-quarter result revealed a notable sequential deceleration in group volumes which fell 9% in the last quarter of 2022 from a 3.4% decline the previous quarter, UBS analysts Guillaume Delmas and Kate Rusanova say in a research note. Volumes at its laundry and home-care unit fell nearly 15% in 4Q compared with a 7.5% decline in 3Q, while beauty care volumes fell 15% in 4Q down from 11% in 3Q, UBS says. The German chemical company nevertheless managed 6.0% organic sales growth in Q4, exceeding consensus expectations, driven by its adhesives unit which grew nearly 12% organically compared with consensus of 9.1% growth, UBS says. Adhesive volumes mix in 4Q fell 3.2% compared with 1% growth in the previous quarter, UBS says. Shares trade 2.3% lower to EUR67.62.(pierre.bertrand@wsj.com)

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HSBC Seen Returning 40% of Market Cap in Dividends, Buybacks

1146 GMT - HSBC has a short runway to a long flight of buybacks, Jefferies says in a note, adding that it sees the bank announcing the first new cycle of share buybacks with its first quarter results early May. Alongside the resumption of quarterly dividends and a special dividend from the Canada disposal, the brokerage expects a $2.5 billion program at 1Q, followed by a further $2.5 billion one at 2Q and a $5 billion buyback at the end of the year. "Our call is that HSBC can return up to 40% of its market cap through dividends and buybacks between [2023-25,]" Jefferies analysts say, keeping a buy rating on the stock while raising its target price to 900 pence from 770 pence. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

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Outlook for Consumer Spending Deteriorates in Developed Economies

1141 GMT - Consumer spending in the G-7 group is expected to flatline this year and to recover modestly in 2024, better than the pattern seen in the global financial crisis but a weak outlook anyway, Oxford Economics lead economist Adam Slater says in a note. "While some key drivers of spending such as energy prices have improved, other factors such as rate hikes, weak income growth, declining household wealth, the exhaustion of reopening effects, and a reluctance to draw down excess savings point in the opposite direction," he says. Some factors could support spending, such as a rapid decline in inflation that would allow central banks to reduce rates, although this would come with economic activity weakening sharply too, Slater says. (xavier.fontdegloria@wsj.com)

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Harmony Energy Income Trust's Portfolio Activity Seen Boosting Growth, Returns

1141 GMT - Harmony Energy Income Trust's near-term portfolio activity contributes to strong forecast net asset value growth as the energy-storage investment company expects to treble its operational capacity by the end of 2023, Berenberg says in a note, reinitiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating. "We believe the focus on higher-value assets in higher-value markets provides Harmony the opportunity to generate higher relative returns and should support a premium to NAV," say analysts James Carmichael and Daniel Bothe. They add that their price target, set at 140 pence, implies potential for shareholder returns of around 20% over the next 12 months. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

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Ashtead Shrugs Off Macro Concerns, But Caution Still Advised for Investors

1137 GMT - Ashtead has put forward a persuasive case as to why it expects its business to be more resilient materially than in previous downturns, RBC Capital Markets analysts Karl Green and Andrew Brooke say ina note. The equipment-hire group cites a more consolidated market, the significant expansion of highly diverse specialty revenues and an increased customer appreciation of the benefits of rentals over ownership, the analysts say. However, despite the proliferation of mega-projects which currently represent 30% of construction starts, the stock currently trades slightly above what analysts see as fair value. "Given some of the historically most reliable macro indicators presage a recession sooner rather than later, caution is warranted for the marginal investor," the analysts say. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

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Greggs's Robust Performance Fails to Impress Investors

1130 GMT - Greggs's current performance, with nearly 20% like-for-like sales increase, didn't impress investors, showing that the stock market already priced in a number of good news into the share price, AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould says in a note as shares are down 0.7%. "The company's record over a long period provides confidence they know what they're doing and Greggs can lay claim to being one of Britain's best-run businesses," Mould adds. However, the brand--known for its cheap, hot, filling food offering--could face new challenges when economic conditions improve and people have a bit more money to spare, he says. (michael.susin@wsj.com)

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dotDigital Has Opportunity for Stronger Growth, Margin Expansion

1121 GMT - dotDigital Group offers an attractive profitable and cash-generative model, as well as an enticing opportunity for stronger growth and margin expansion, finnCap analyst Andrew Darley says in a research note. The marketing-software company also has organic opportunities which are likely to benefit from M&A,and the new chairman & CFO should add further energy to the board, he says. Disruption at the higher-growth APAC and North American businesses--caused by staff changes--has now passed and the cost base has stabilized along with the deployment of staff to restore strong growth, Darley adds. finnCap reiterates its 150-pence target price on the stock. Shares trade up 0.3% at 97.30 pence. (kyle.morris@dowjones.com)

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Just Group's Shares Remain Inexpensive

1114 GMT - Just Group shares trade at a significant discount to peers, says J.P. Morgan Cazenove in a note after the provider of retirement-income products and services posted stronger-than-expected results for 2022 and issued guidance for 2023. "Coupled with management's strong growth outlook for both bulk and retail annuities, we feel the shares are just too inexpensive and we expect them to outperform," say analysts Farooq Hanif and Bingdi Fan. They add that the company's solvency II capital ratio of 199% now puts it in-line with its U.K. life peers. JPM rates the stock overweight. Shares rise 9.5% at 89.65 pence. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

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Foxtons's Shares Enjoy Positive Reaction to 2022 Results

1104 GMT - Foxtons's shares saw a small rise after reporting a higher-than-expected bottom line for 2022, and an upbeat assessment of its outlook for the housing market, Interactive Investor says. The U.K. real-estate agency's shares have had a strong start to 2023, regaining ground to the tune of over 40% pricing amid expectations that U.K. interest rates are inching close to their peak and inflation is starting to ease, Interactive head of investment Victoria Scholar writes. "After a period of weakness for the stock between February 2021 and October 2022, a revival in risk-appetite has helped to boost shares in recent months as investors price in the prospect of a recovery in housing demand," Scholar says. Shares are up 1.9% at 42.0 pence. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

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UK House Prices Rose in February, Beating Expectations of Drop, Halifax Says

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03-07-23 0928ET