In unison, the financial markets hit new record highs this week, still riding the artificial intelligence momentum and now benefiting from expectations of a rate cut on both sides of the Atlantic in June. Jerome Powell initially supported this scenario in his speeches to Congress, before Christine Lagarde followed suit after lowering her growth and inflation forecasts for the eurozone in 2024. Appetite for risky assets therefore remains intact, all the more so as the monthly US employment report seems to support this scenario, despite better-than-expected job creation.
Weekly variations*
DOW JONES INDUST...
38722.69  -0.93%
Chart DOW JONES INDUST...
NASDAQ 100
18018.45  -1.55%
Chart NASDAQ 100
FTSE 100
7659.74  -0.30%
Chart FTSE 100
GOLD
2176.92$  +4.49%
Chart GOLD
WTI
77.77$  -2.23%
Chart WTI
EURO / US DOLLAR
1.09$  +0.88%
Chart EURO / US DOLLAR
This week's gainers and losers
Gainers:
  • HPE (+17%): Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported disappointing results, with EPS down 24% and revenues down 14% for the quarter, as well as uninspiring forecasts. But the market focused on the good news: the American group, like its counterpart Dell, is set to capitalize on the fervor linked to AI (the magic word) to sell more optimized servers. Both giants are also anticipating greater inroads into the telecoms sector.
  • Super Micro Computer (+26%): The Californian server manufacturer Super Micro Computer soared following the announcement of its forthcoming inclusion in the S&P 500 index. This news extended an upward trend that began at the start of the year with a gain of +326%. This rally reflects investors' confidence in Super Micro, particularly in the context of a booming market for the artificial intelligence sector. 
  • Celsius (+13%): The energy drinks manufacturer delighted the markets. Its quarterly and annual results were better than expected. Over the year, revenues doubled and the company posted a handsome profit, compared with a loss last year. Several analysts have raised their price target on the stock, which gained more than 63% since the beginning of the year. 
  • Kroger (+13%), Target (+10%), Burlington Stores (+8%): Consumer stocks are back in the black, as evidenced by the US consumer confidence indicators released this week. Despite inflation, all three US retailers reported stronger-than-expected results for the quarter just ended (with improved profits and gross margins), and an encouraging outlook for the year ahead. At Burlington, sales are even up 14% over the last 3 months. 
  • Lyft (+15%): The passenger transport and delivery company is soaring on the back of a projection by analysts RBC Capital Markets. The firm believes that if Lyft and Doordash were to join forces, they would be able to compete with Uber, creating a balanced duopoly that would benefit the market. The analyst strongly raised his recommendation and price target on both stocks, and the market did the rest.
Losers:
  • Foot Locker (-30%): A major setback for the sporting goods retailer, which this week published disappointing quarterly results and a timid outlook. Adjusted earnings for the quarter fell sharply and the loss widened. The retailer then pushed back its profitability target to 2028, raised the possibility of lower annual sales, and, as a final blow to shareholders, announced that it was extending the suspension of its dividend, in order to concentrate on investments.
  • Gitlab (-21%): The American group specializing in IT development services did not fall short of expectations. Sales and earnings for the quarter were up, exceeding expectations, and the loss was reduced. However, the market still punished the group's timid forecasts for the current quarter and year, which do not reflect the contributions of artificial intelligence (yes, the magic word was missing to please Wall Street), but rather a future slowdown in the economy.     
  • Li auto (-16%), Tesla (-12%), Vinfast Auto (-9%): A tough week for electric vehicle manufacturers. In China, all manufacturers combined, EV sales are down 21% year-on-year and 46% in February. The global outlook is equally gloomy, with demand weakened by the declining economy and a new preference for hybrids. Competition is intensifying, with price-cutting giant BYD gaining market share on all its little buddies. 
  • Sofi (-17%): The American fintech dropped this week after announcing its aim to offer $750 million of senior convertible debt in a private placement, maturing in 2029. The share price has fallen by nearly 25% since the beginning of the year. 
  • Entain (-18%): Double downturn for the British online gambling and betting group. At the time of publication of its annual results, it reported a severely increased net loss (to £928.6 million), widened by rising expenses. The group also unveiled a mixed outlook, overshadowed by forthcoming regulatory developments: the implementation of wagering caps on online slot games in the UK and stricter deposit limits in the Netherlands.
Chart Commodities
Commodities
  • Energy: Oil prices stalled overall, despite a busy week on the oil news front. For a start, it was OPEC, and more specifically Saudi Arabia, that caused a stir, not because the cartel extended its production quotas, but because the Saudi Kingdom raised its official selling prices to its Asian customers. Let's stay in Asia with China, which unveiled its latest trade figures, showing oil imports up year-on-year, but with a trend towards slower growth month-on-month. We end this world tour with the United States, where weekly inventories continue to rise, albeit modestly. In terms of prices, Brent crude is trading at around USD 82.50, while WTI is trading at around USD 78.
  • Metals: What can we learn from China's latest economic data? Metal imports and exports are fairly robust, a sign that industrial demand is improving. Metal prices are reacting positively: a tonne of copper is trading at USD 8,600 in London, aluminum is up to USD 2,250 and zinc is gaining ground at USD 2,530. Nevertheless, the star of the moment is among precious metals. We are of course referring to gold, which posted a third consecutive week of gains to USD 2172. Dollar-denominated gold hit an all-time high thanks to bets on lower interest rates, which favors the precious metal, an asset which, by definition, delivers no yield.
  • Agricultural products: In Chicago, the euphoria seen on stock markets was far from over, as grain prices continued to slide. Wheat broke through its 2023 low and is now trading at around USD 525, a level not seen since 2020. Corn put up more resistance, rising to 440 cents a bushel. Elsewhere, cocoa remains high at USD 6,500 per tonne.
Chart Commodities
Macroeconomics
  • Atmosphere: Good boy! Jerome Powell played its part well at his double testimony before the US Congress. It's important not to rush into anything, while being aware of the risks of an overly restrictive policy on the health of the US economy. In short, he left the door open to a first rate cut in June, which is all the market was waiting for. Meanwhile, employment continues to be resilient. The US created 275k non-agricultural jobs in February, against an estimate of 200K. On the other hand, the unemployment rate was slightly higher than expected at 3.90% vs. 3.70%. Overall, these data were well received: the 10-year yield continued to ease on Friday afternoon, and is now testing 4.07%. Outside the US, China once again blew hot and cold: the targets set by the authorities for 2024 are rather ambitious, but the market finds it hard to see how they can be achieved unless Beijing introduces more promising public policies. In Europe, the ECB has left rates unchanged and looks set to start cutting them in June. 
  • Crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to soar this week, and even had the luxury of breaking through its all-time high. On Tuesday, the digital currency momentarily reached $69,250, beating its previous record of November 2021, when bitcoin reached $68,900 at its peak. This performance was largely due to the constant influx of capital into Bitcoin Spot ETFs. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF now has over $12 billion in assets under management. Bitcoin is up over 7% since Monday, and is currently trading at around $68,000. This enthusiasm for the market leader is spreading to other crypto-currencies, including Ethereum (ETH) at +13.5%, which is also approaching its all-time high, Solana (SOL) at +14% and assets such as Floki memecoins (FLOKI) at +56% and Shiba Inu (SHIB) at 64%.
Historical Chart
No news is good news
All things being equal, the timing for the first Fed and ECB rate cuts is drawing closer. As long as this statement remains relevant, investors have little cause for alarm. In the meantime, it's off again for a round of US statistics next week, with price data (inflation and February producer prices) and consumer indicators (retail sales, University of Michigan consumer confidence). The supply of earnings reports is drying up, but there are still a few big names due to report next week such as Gitlab, Williams-Sonoma, Adobe and On Holding.
Things to read this week
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Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir: AI, the weapon of war of the future?Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir: AI, the weapon of war of the future?
-- Palantir CEO Alex Karp highlights the progress made with Project Titan , highlighting the changing perception in the US government of the importance of... Read more
*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday.
The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.