What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data

What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data By Hardika Singh

Many Americans believe that the economy and their finances are worse than they really are. Meanwhile, from beef to mayo, consumers continue to spend more to buy less, and how Disney's Bob Iger squashed Wall Street agitator Nelson Peltz. Read on for this news and more.

Top News What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data

In The Wall Street Journal's latest poll of swing states, 74% of respondents said inflation has moved in the wrong direction in the past year. This assessment, which holds across all seven states, is startling, sobering-and simply not true. In the 12 months through February, inflation, according to the century-old consumer-price index, was 3.2%, compared with 6% a year earlier. Use a slightly different time horizon, or a slightly different measure (such as the index the Federal Reserve prefers ) and you get similar results. Take out food and energy-or for that matter look only at food and energy -and inflation is still down.

Hannon's Take Fresh Faith in Forecasts

Policymakers at the European Central Bank are placing renewed faith in the forecasts produced by their economists , a key step toward lowering borrowing costs and aiding an economic recovery. In common with its peers, the ECB was surprised by the surge in consumer prices as the Covid-19 pandemic entered its second year, and has since been wary of placing too much faith in projections that are based on standard economic models.

U.S. Economy How Far $100 Goes at the Grocery Store After Five Years of Food Inflation

Prices for hundreds of grocery items have increased more than 50% since 2019 as food companies raised their prices. Executives have said that higher prices were needed to offset their own rising costs for ingredients, transportation and labor. Some U.S. lawmakers and the Biden administration have criticized food companies for using tactics such as shrinkflation, in which companies shrink their products-but not their prices.

Financial Regulation SBF Is Going to Prison, but the Fight Over Money at FTX Drags On

Wayne Perdew caught the crypto bug in 2022. The farmer in Pierce, Colo., plowed about $60,000 into cryptocurrencies after a divorce led him to sell his house. He bought bitcoin and ether on FTX, attracted to the crypto exchange by a run of sports-sponsorship deals, including one that emblazoned FTX's logo on a Miami basketball arena.

Forward Guidance Friday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: Canada labor force survey

8:30 a.m.: U.S. employment report

9:15 a.m.: Fed's Barkin speaks to Greater Baltimore Committee

11 a.m.: Dallas Fed's Logan speaks to Duke University Department of Economics

12:15 p.m.: Fed's Bowman speaks at Shadow Open Market Committee meeting in New York

Monday

11 a.m.: New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations

Research U.S. Investment-Grade Bond Ratings Record More Upgrades Than Downgrades in March

The U.S. investment-grade bond segment had more ratings upgrades than downgrades in March, with a net upgrade of over $25 billion, Bank of America analysts said in a note. Net upgrades were lower than the strong reading of over $57 billion net upgrades in February but improved from January's net upgrades of just over $9 billion, the analysts said. "Sectors with most upgrades in March included banks/brokers, technology and tobacco, while sectors with most net downgrades in March were utilities, aerospace/defense and healthcare," BofA said. - Miriam Mukuru

Basis Points Mexican central bankers remained cautious about monetary easing in deciding last month to cut interest rates, saying future decisions should depend on how inflation performs, according to the minutes of the meeting published Thursday. - Anthony Harrup Activity in the eurozone's private sector returned to growth last month , led by southern European economies while Germany and France continue to lag, according to a survey of purchasing managers released Thursday. - Joshua Kirby German manufacturing orders edged up in February , reflecting a moderate rebound as demand for goods remains sluggish. - Ed Frankl About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ's global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Hardika Singh in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to [hardika.singh@wsj.com].

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-05-24 0716ET