NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 8 (Reuters) - Industry analysts spent much of 2023 deciding whether new-crop Chicago corn futures were tracking more closely with 2012 or 2013, though 2013 was certainly the better analog in the end.

December 2024 futures are now inevitably being compared with 2014, which featured some of the sharpest ever mid-year declines.

While prices and some fundamentals look similar, there are also key differences between market conditions in 2014 versus 2024 that may help guide expectations for the coming months.

PRICES

Through the first four months of the year, new-crop CBOT December corn futures averaged $4.73 per bushel, nearly identical to the January-April 2014 new-crop average of $4.76, not adjusted for inflation. Both averages are between 15% and 18% lower than in the same periods in the prior years.

But directionally, things look different. December 2024 corn has dropped as much as 11% since the beginning of January, bottoming on Feb. 26. Yearly losses totaled 4% through Wednesday.

New-crop corn was unchanged in January 2014 but jumped nearly 5% in February. December 2014 futures hit their annual high in early April, notching maximum year-to-date gains of 15%. Yearly gains as of May 8 totaled 14% in 2014.

December 2024 corn has not yet returned to its annual high of $5.02-1/4 per bushel set on Jan. 2 but came close on Tuesday, topping at $4.91-1/4.

SPECULATORS

From late 2022 throughout 2023, money managers’ views on CBOT corn futures and options tracked very similarly with the same period in 2012-2013. But 2024 totally diverged from 2014.

In late February 2024, funds forged a record corn net short of 341,000 contracts after eight weeks of heavy selling. However, funds were net buyers of corn for 13 consecutive weeks to start out 2014, going from a moderate net short of 95,000 contracts to a net long of 276,000 in that span.

Money managers had cut their net short to 218,000 contracts by the end of April 2024.

SUPPLY GROWTH

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will issue its first official 2024-25 outlooks on Friday, though a tentative one was published in February. That showed 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks rising 17% on the year to a 37-year high, following a 60% increase in 2023-24 and a decline of 1% in 2022-23.

In February 2014, USDA pegged 2014-15 U.S. corn ending stocks up 43% on the year compared with an 80% increase in 2013-14 and a 17% decline in 2012-13, a year featuring catastrophic drought.

Analysts expect USDA on Friday will place 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks up 9% from 2023-24. In May 2014, USDA’s first 2014-15 print was up 51% on the year, identical to trade estimates.

U.S. EXPORTS

Compared with expectations, overseas demand for U.S. corn was on fire in early 2014. USDA between January and May 2014 boosted 2013-14 U.S. export estimates by 31% (450 million bushels), a practically unheard-of increase for that period.

USDA’s 2023-24 U.S. corn export outlook has been unchanged since December at 2.1 billion bushels. In 2013-14, U.S. corn exports accounted for 37% of the world total versus an expected 27% this year, though Brazil increased its share to 26% from 16% during that decade.

SOUTH AMERICA

USDA in the first two months of 2014 reduced Argentina’s 2013-14 corn crop by 8% on warm weather, and Argentine and Brazilian production combined was set to fall more than 10% from the prior season.

Slightly higher Argentine corn production was realized later in 2014, though USDA’s 2013-14 Brazilian estimate went through four consecutive upgrades between April and July, gaining a total of 11% (8 million metric tons).

A decade later, Brazil’s corn crop has expanded by more than 50% and Argentina’s potential has nearly doubled. But dry weather has cut 2023-24 Brazilian crop estimates, and pest damage could cause large reductions in Argentina.

As of April, USDA pegged 2023-24 corn production among the two countries up a combined 3.5% on the year, though analysts see that margin falling to 1% on Friday. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Editing by Michael Perry)