By Kirk Maltais


-Soybeans for May delivery rose 1.3% to $11.94 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, with short-covering supporting soybeans after Conab's report showed a cut in the outlook for Brazilian soybeans.

-Wheat for May delivery rose 0.3% to $5.49 a bushel.

-Corn for May delivery were unchanged at $4.41 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Lower Outlook: Brazil's crop agency Conab made cuts to its outlook for both corn and soybeans production in 2023/24 - reducing its soybean outlook to 146.9 million tons and its corn outlook down to 112.7 million tons. In its report Tuesday, Conab attributed the further decline in expected crop output to weather that has been 'variable and unfavorable in the main producing regions.' For soybeans in particular, low rainfall in many areas has cut into crop production, the agency said. The further cuts are gradually tightening the global supply and demand picture for grains.

Cutting Back: CBOT grains were higher to start the day, but gradually pulled, said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. "Profit taking is noted," said Blohm, noting that the effects of Conab's report lost steam through the day. "Profit taking to the downside may continue to develop since those technical targets were hit earlier in the trade session," said Blohm. Traders still anticipate a large short-covering spurt before the start of the U.S. growing season, but it has yet to occur.


INSIGHT


Surging Sales: Russian wheat export prices continue to drop back, in turn perpetuating more sales out of the Black Sea. Last week, prices on Russian shipments fell back to roughly $200 per ton last week, Russian consultancy SovEcon said in a note. The firm adds that shipments through March 12 rose to 2.8 million tons in the month, up from 1.9 million tons seen in February. Pressure through the past month appears to have come from competition from French wheat sources, although Russian wheat appears to be reclaiming more business. "Russian wheat offers had to follow to keep its competitive edge," said the firm.

Fueling the Fire: Daily ethanol production in the U.S. is expected to turn lower for the week ended March 8, according to analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week. Analysts project that daily production will land anywhere between 1.033 million to 1.057 million barrels a day, which is mostly down from the 1.057 million barrels a day reported by the EIA last week. Meanwhile, ethanol stocks are expected to remain over the 26 million barrels mark. Grain traders have interpreted recent weeks of EIA data as showing an increased flow of ethanol, which in turn has supported corn demand.


AHEAD


-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-12-24 1524ET