By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for May delivery fell 0.8% to $5.43 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with the downward momentum seen in grains longer-term expected to continue until U.S. planting officially begins next month.

-Corn for May delivery fell 0.1% to $4.41 1/4 a bushel.

-Soybeans for May delivery were virtually unchanged at $11.96 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Kept in Place: The risk-off stance towards grains in recent months stayed in place today, said Joel Karlin of Ocean State Research - with futures treading water until the planting season gets underway. These factors include mediocre demand for U.S. exports, issues with China's economy, and record South American production--with cuts made to Brazil's outlook being balanced by more Argentina crops. "Conab figures were somewhat friendly, but well anticipated by the trade," said Karlin. Early planting of corn in some areas in the U.S. is also putting a strain on those futures, although it's not clear how widespread that planting is.

Screech to a Halt: Momentum stemming from yesterday's Conab report - which showed cuts to corn and soybean production in Brazil - looks to have run its course. "Profit taking [is] occurring for grains this morning after prices tested overhead technical resistance levels yesterday," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. The USDA's WASDE report last week didn't adjust the outlook for South American crop production as low as other private estimates have taken it.


INSIGHT


Back to Basics: Data about Brazilian and Argentinian crops has been a main driver of CBOT grains in recent months, but traders are largely turning their attention to what the early days of spring planting in the U.S. will look like. "Traders are keenly monitoring weather as the Northern Hemisphere growing season commences," said AgResource in a note. The firm adds that the USDA will begin issuing its weekly Crop Progress reports tracking the health and progress of U.S. crops on April 1.

Looking for a Record: Ahead of the USDA's Prospective Planting report at the end of the month, ag brokerage Allendale Inc. said that producers it surveyed estimated 2024 corn production at a record 15.52 billion bushels. That's with planted acreage of 93.47 million acres, down from last year, but with a trendline yield of 181.9 bushels an acre, more than 4 bushels an acre higher than the yield seen last year. Planted acreage projected by Allendale is over 2 million acres more than forecast by the USDA last month.

Stocks on the Drop: After spending two weeks with inventories above the 26 million-barrel mark, ethanol stocks receded, according to data from the EIA. In its weekly report, the agency said that ethanol stocks for the week through March 8 totaled 25.78 million barrels. That's down from 26.05 million barrels recorded the previous week, and lower than anticipated by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones--who had forecast stocks to land between 26.09 million barrels and 26.35 million barrels. Stocks were expected to keep rising for the week, before the weather warms up and more traveling begins, said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note.


AHEAD


-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-13-24 1511ET