By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for March delivery fell 1% to $5.61 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, with ample global supplies forecast by the USDA for 2024/25 continuing to be a pressure point for wheat.

-Corn for March delivery fell 0.3% to $4.16 1/2 a bushel.

-Soybeans for March delivery rose 1% to $11.73 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Tricky Outlook: Traders continued to react to the USDA's new outlook for 2024/25 wheat on Friday, putting those futures under pressure all day. "The USDA paints a rosy picture for U.S. wheat supplies, which in itself should put downward pressure on wheat prices," said Commerzbank in a note. However, the firm adds, initial outlooks that the USDA issues as part of its Agricultural Outlook Forum are subject to change. "The WASDE report in May should provide a better assessment when information on spring plantings and survey-based estimates of farmers' planting intentions are available," said Commerzbank.

Back to Brazil: With the USDA Agricultural Ag Forum ending Friday, grain traders are switching their focus back to Brazilian crops, particularly how big the output of soybeans will be. "As the Brazilian soybean harvest pushes beyond 50% there will be more clarity on the final crop," AgResource said in a note. One private firm projects soybeans between 130-135 million metric tons, which is lower than Conab's last projection of 149 million metric tons. "The size of the '24 Brazilian soybean crop has an important statistical impact on U.S. 2024/25 exports."


INSIGHT


Early Start: A factor being watched by traders and providing some support for corn is anecdotes of farmers applying fertilizer early, in response to abnormal temperatures thawing out fields. "Dry soils and seasonally warm temperatures have triggered light fieldwork and fertilizer application in February," said Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. This kind of early fieldwork is being seen mostly in states like Kansas.

Disruption on the Sea: The fighting in the Middle East has created a strain in shipments going through the Suez Canal, and that strain could grow worse if a solution isn't found soon, said Alexander Karavaytsev of IGC. Speaking at the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum, Karavaytsev said "insurance premiums have increased, and some underwriters have pulled out to see how the situation will pan out." If this continues, then exports out of Russia may soon be replaced by North and South American exports, particularly for wheat, according to Karavaytsev.


AHEAD


-The USDA and the Chicago Board of Trade will be closed in observance of Presidents Day, reopening on Tuesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Tuesday.

-The USDA will release its annual summary of Chickens and Eggs at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.

-Andersons Inc. will releases its fourth-quarter earnings report at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-16-24 1507ET