By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for May delivery fell 2.1% to $5.33 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, in response to China canceling previously announced export sales, which traders took as a sign of future U.S. export weakness.

-Corn for May delivery fell 1.5% to $4.34 1/2 a bushel.

-Soybeans for May delivery fell 0.1% to $11.95 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Stop Sign: CBOT wheat fell today on talk of China canceling purchases of wheat exports from multiple destinations - which traders took as evidence of export market weakness going forward. "China's cancellations of wheat contracts are continuing, and could now affect several origins in addition to U.S. wheat," said AgriTel in a note. Today's export sales report from the USDA showed limp wheat sales for the week, although they were not as low as expected by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Stubborn Wall: CBOT grains that attempted to rally this morning have been met with tough resistance from sellers and algorithmic trading designed to automatically act at certain price points. The levels of resistance are pretty close to where they're trading at now, said Brian Pullam of Linn & Associates. For soybeans, Pullam forecasts selling pressure for futures between $12 and $12.15 a bushel--versus the $11.97 a bushel they're trading at now. Resistance on corn is seen between $4.45 to $4.50 a bushel, versus the $4.34 they're trading at now.

Ample Rain: CBOT grains turned lower in afternoon trading, due to weather forecasts for South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina. Ample rainfall is expected in many growing areas, which in turn will support soil moisture as farmers transition from harvesting their soybean crops to planting their safrinha corn crop. "The market is watching South American weather," Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group said. "New money is making its way into the market, some hedge fund managers are seeing value at these levels heading into planting season."


INSIGHT


Changing Climate: Odds that the current El Niño climate will change this spring are up to 83%, said the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in an update today. Climate is expected to transition between April and June to a neutral climate system, NOAA said. The agency gives a 62% chance of a La Niña system developing by June to August. How the climate changes over spring into the summer is important to U.S. growers, with the planting season beginning for farmers in April.

Within Forecasts: U.S. grain exports reported by the USDA landed within the expectations of analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The USDA reported Thursday that for the week ended March 7, wheat sales totaled 165,100 metric tons across the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years, corn sales totaled 1.28 million tons, and soybeans totaled 470,300 tons. All three of these totals fell within the estimates from surveyed analysts. Corn sales fell on the high end of forecasts, which were within the range of 800,000 tons to 1.4 million tons.


AHEAD


-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-14-24 1530ET