This last session before the '4 Witches' is probably not the one most managers were dreaming of to maximize their quarterly performance... but neither will Wall Street's modest downturn on Thursday dampen their performance since January 1.

The main regret stems from the fact that the 3 main US indices could have collectively set new all-time highs at the opening (this is what had been in the air in electronic trading since the start of the morning, with gains of +0.5 to +0.6%), but the 'PPI' publication spoiled everything.
The prevailing euphoria (Paris gained +1% to 8.218Pts) faded at 1:30 p.m. with the Producer Price Index, which came in at +0.6% instead of the expected +0.3%.

US indices quickly wiped out half their potential gains and, shortly after a soft opening, fell back from +0.2% to -0.2% or -0.3%.
The scores then hovered around -0.3% throughout the session, and the close came without the situation having changed (in fact, it hasn't really changed since March 7).
The Dow Jones crumbled by -0.35%, the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite by -0.3%.

The Nasdaq -100 (also -0.3%) held on to the 18,000pt mark, but fell back in the wake of Tesla -4.1%, AMD -4%, Illumina -3.5%, On -3.4%, Nvidia -3.2%, Micron -2.9%.
The 'GAFAM' companies helped to contain the downturn in the major indices, with Alphabet +2.5%, Microsoft +2.4%, Amazon +1.2% and Apple +1.1%... only missing Meta with -0.7%.

The S&P500 was weighed down by homebuilders, notably Lennar -7.6%, Beazer Homes -6.9%, Pulte Group -4%, DR Horton -3.1%

Note that Adobe plunged -11% after the close with quarterly graphics software sales figures at the bottom of the range and a contribution from 'AI' not up to expectations.

The fault lies with US producer prices, which rose twice as much as expected compared with the previous month, and by 0.4% excluding food, energy and commercial services.

According to the Labor Department, the increase stood at 1.6% gross annualized and 2.8% excluding food, energy and commercial services last month, compared with annual rates of 1% and 2.7% respectively in January.

No surprise, however, for US retail sales, which rebounded by 0.6% sequentially in February, broadly in line with market expectations, following a 1.1% decline the previous month (revised from an initial estimate of -0.8%).

The Commerce Department, which publishes these figures, points out that excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), US retail sales rose by 0.3% last month, following a 0.8% decline in January.
Finally, the Labor Department announced 209,000 new US jobless claims for the week of March 4, a figure down by 1,000 (below the margin of uncertainty) on the previous week's revised figure (210,000 instead of the 217,000 initially announced).

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came out at 208,000 for the same week, an anecdotal decline of 500 on the previous week's revised average.

The bond market's reaction to the PPI and retail sales figures was negative: US T-Bonds tightened by +10pts to 4.295%, and the 30-year bond posted +9pts to 4.435%... which may explain the mood on real estate stocks, as borrowing conditions deteriorated by +15pts in 48 hours.

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