The uptrend is not 'dead', and Wall Street is resourceful: buyers rushed to 'pay' for the first 'hiccup' of 2024, and even for the 1st decline of more than -1.5% in a few hours since the end of October.
US indices proved resilient, with initial gains (+0.3%) quickly tripling, then quadrupling by mid-session, with the S&P500 (+1.4% to 5,222) returning to its all-time highs by less than 0.7%.

In the end, the broad index gained +1.1% to 5,204.204 (-0.9% hebdo), the Dow Jones +0.80%, the Nasdaq index recovered 1.25% (after -1.45% the previous day, i.e. -0.9% hebdo).
The motto "buy all the dips" still seems to apply in New York, and the "titans" and champions of the "semis" were once again picked up, with Meta +3.2%, Western Digital +3.4%, Netflix +3.1%, Amazon and AMD +2.8%, Nvidia and Marvel Techno +2.5%, Microsoft +1.8%.

Still under pressure, Tesla fell -3.6% on rumors that it had abandoned plans to develop a low-cost Tesla at $25,000 (a niche occupied by its main Chinese competitor BYD)..... but shortly after the close the stock recovered +2.5% with the mention of a new project: the 'robotaxi'.

The publication of the US 'NFP' at 2.30 p.m. was eagerly awaited... and the US economy created more jobs than expected in March, according to the Labor Department's monthly report published on Friday.

The monthly 'NFP' report counted 303,000 non-agricultural jobs created last month in the US, compared with 270,000 (revised from 275,000) in February, while the consensus forecast by Reuters was for just 200,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March, from 3.9% the previous month (Reuters consensus unchanged at 3.9%).

The rise in average hourly earnings - a closely watched component - accelerated to +0.3% in March, after +0.2% in February (consensus of +0.3%), but its growth slowed slightly to 4.1% from +4.3% (annualized) the previous month, which coincides with the consensus of 4.1%.

It is probably this last point that has resuscitated Wall Street's optimism, since wages "are not slipping" - quite the contrary, after the acceleration observed in 2023.

It only took 24 hours for investors to digest Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's statements.

He warned that "if inflation continues to follow a pattern of declining rates and occasional spikes, the question will arise as to whether any rate cuts this year should be abandoned".

While some strategists see this as no more than a slight blip in an ongoing uptrend, others see it as a prelude to an inevitable correction.

Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James, warns: "The solid start to the year by the stock markets increases the risk of renewed volatility in the short term".

"The latter usually experience between three and four correction sequences of at least 5% per year, and the last one so far dates back to September 2023".

Bond markets remain 'heavy', with T-Bonds retesting the crucial 4.405% resistance (+10pts), the '2-yr' climbing to 4.751% (or +11pts) and a '30-yr' taking +8pts to 4.552%.

With 4.3900% breached, the scenario of a return to 4.500% is becoming increasingly plausible.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and declining Russian refining capacity continue to keep pressure on oil: Brent crude oil (+1.2%) set a new annual record at $91.6, while WTI also reached a high of $87.5 (+4% weekly).
The "geopolitical fact" continues to push gold up (+1%) above $2,330 (new zenith, i.e. +4% weekly), while silver breaks through $27 (+8% weekly).

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