Wall Street: last-minute trend reversal
Some managers are wondering whether Jerome Powell's comments last Wednesday were over-interpreted, and whether the FED will really be able to deliver 3 rate cuts by the end of the year if inflation rebounds in the wake of oil ($81.5 to $82 on WTI this Tuesday) or gas.
Even though the VIX has hardly budged, Wall Street seems less serene with 48 hours to go before the end of the 1st quarter, but that's not too serious, as balance sheet wrapping should predominate, and the rise in US indices seems to be in line with the previous 21 weeks of continuous progression since the end of October 2023, and especially since January 5 (Nasdaq soared +13% in 10 weeks, with no retracement).
Investors have just taken note of the Conference Board's durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures.
The confidence index calculated by the employers' organization came in at 104.7 this month, compared with 104.8 in February.
While the consumer sentiment component measuring the current situation improved to 151, from 147.6 last month, the expectations component fell sharply to 73.8 from 76.3 in February.
The Commerce Department reports US durable goods orders up 1.4% last month on the previous month, following a sequential drop of 6.9% in January (revised from an initial estimate of 6.1%).
However, excluding the usually erratic transportation sector, where orders rebounded by 3.3% in February, US durable goods orders rose by just 0.5% over the period.
Other important indicators will follow, such as the latest estimate of US fourth-quarter GDP due on Thursday, but the highlight of the week will be the February household income and spending statistics.
This publication, whose price component is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, will refine forecasts for the Fed's forthcoming decisions.
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