The New York Stock Exchange seems a little short of inspiration after the euphoric phase at the end of the previous week: the trend actually reversed in the afternoon, with the S&P500 dropping from +0.3% to -0.3% (-0.5% in the last hour of trading) to finish at 5,203, and the Nasdaq Composite, which was well on its way to a record closing price of 16,475, ending at the day's low of 16,315 (-0.4%).475, ended at the day's low of 16.315 (-0.4%).

Some managers are wondering whether Jerome Powell's comments last Wednesday were over-interpreted, and whether the Fed will really be able to deliver three rate cuts by the end of the year if inflation rebounds in the wake of oil (from $81.5 to $82 on WTI this Tuesday) or gas.

Even though the VIX has hardly flinched, Wall Street seems less serene with 48 hours to go before the end of the first quarter, but that's not too serious, since balance sheet wrapping should predominate and the rise in US indices seems to be in line with the previous 21 weeks of continuous progression since the end of October 2023, and especially since January 5 (Nasdaq soared +13% in 10 weeks, with no retracement).

In terms of the day's US statistics, investors took note of the durable goods orders figures, followed by the Conference Board's consumer confidence figures.

The Commerce Department reported US durable goods orders up 1.4% in February on the previous month, following a 6.9% fall in January. However, excluding the transportation sector, orders rose by only 0.5%.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index came in at 104.7 this month, compared with 104.8 in February. While the consumer sentiment component measuring the current situation improved to 151 in March, the expectations component fell sharply to 73.8.

Other important indicators will follow, such as the latest estimate of US fourth-quarter GDP due on Thursday, but the highlight of the week will be the February household income and expenditure statistics on Friday. This publication, whose price component is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, will refine forecasts for the Fed's forthcoming decisions.

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