By Scott DiSavino Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed after giving up earlier gains of over 5% on Thursday following a federal report showing last week's storage withdrawal was massive but in line with analysts estimates. Earlier in the session, prices were up on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected and the slow return of output after wells and other equipment froze in last week's Arctic freeze. Even though it will be cooler than previously expected, meteorologists forecast the weather would remain warmer than normal through early February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a much bigger than usual 326 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Jan. 19 due to extreme cold last week. That cold boosted gas demand to a daily record high and cut both gas output and liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas to a one-year low. That was the biggest weekly withdrawal since utilities pulled 338 bcf of gas out of storage during a brutal freeze in February 2021 and the all-time record withdrawal of 359 bcf in January 2018. Last week's withdrawal was close to the 321-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 86 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 148 bcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.7 cent, or 0.3%, to $2.634 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:40 a.m. EST (1540 GMT). SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 103.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record of 108.0 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, U.S. gas output was on track to jump by 13.7 bcfd from Jan. 17-25 to a preliminary 104.2 bcfd on Thursday. That, however, was not enough to make up for the 17.2 bcfd output drop from Jan. 8-16 to a 12-month low of 90.5 bcfd on Jan. 16, due primarily to freeze-offs and other cold weather events. Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than normal from now through at least Feb. 9. With less frigid temperatures coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 144.7 bcfd this week to 125.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. That compares with a daily record demand of 168.4 bcfd on Jan. 16 during the arctic freeze. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average of 5.8 bcfd so far in January, up from 4.7 bcfd in December, but remained well below the monthly record of 7.0 bcfd in August. Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise in the coming months once U.S.-based New Fortress Energy's LNG export plant in Altamira in Mexico starts pulling in U.S. gas to liquefy for export. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.8 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. But on a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise by about 4.8 bcfd from Jan. 17-25 to a preliminary 14.0 bcfd on Thursday after dropping by 5.8 bcfd from Jan. 13-16 to a one-year low of 9.2 bcfd on Jan. 16 during last week's freeze. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jan 19 Jan 12 Jan 19 average Actual Actual Jan 19 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -326 -154 -86 -148 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,856 3,182 2,746 2,714 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 5.2% 11.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2023 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.82 2.64 3.42 2.66 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 8.84 9.18 19.79 13.04 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 9.58 9.34 24.34 14.39 14.31 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 326 311 455 432 433 U.S. GFS CDDs 3 4 4 4 3 U.S. GFS TDDs 329 315 459 436 436 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2019-2023) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 97.3 103.0 103.8 101.2 93.8 U.S. Imports from Canada8 9.4 10.0 8.8 9.1 9.3 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 Total U.S. Supply 106.7 113.0 112.6 111.4 103.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 1.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.3 U.S. LNG Exports 12.4 13.7 14.1 12.5 8.9 U.S. Commercial 22.3 18.2 13.8 16.7 16.6 U.S. Residential 39.2 30.9 21.8 28.2 28.6 U.S. Power Plant 37.1 38.8 34.6 32.3 29.5 U.S. Industrial 27.9 26.2 24.8 25.6 25.6 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.6 3.3 2.7 3.6 2.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 135.0 122.6 103.1 111.3 108.7 Total U.S. Demand 154.9 144.7 125.5 131.9 125.6 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 80 80 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 80 80 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 81 81 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jan 26 Jan 19 Jan 12 Jan 5 Dec 29 Wind 8 10 14 8 11 Solar 2 2 2 2 2 Hydro 5 6 6 6 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 39 38 42 40 Coal 23 23 19 19 16 Nuclear 18 17 19 20 22 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub2.45 2.15 Transco Z6 New York 1.85 2.15 PG&E Citygate 3.98 3.69 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.71 1.68 Chicago Citygate 2.25 2.08 Algonquin Citygate 2.51 2.75 SoCal Citygate 3.41 3.31 Waha Hub 2.16 1.68 AECO 1.48 1.35 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 32.25 42.50 PJM West 30.50 28.25 Ercot North 27.75 35.00 Mid C 61.00 98.33 Palo Verde 41.00 58.43 SP-15 46.50 55.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Jonathan Oatis)
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182.4 USD | -7.24% | -13.88% | 39.7B | ||
90.04 PTS | -3.17% | -3.17% | - | ||
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17.03 USD | -0.23% | +1.07% | 36.39B | ||
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