Stifel has raised its recommendation on BASF from 'hold' to 'buy', with a price target raised from €47 to €59.

The analyst believes that the modest forecast for 2024 and the weak trading conditions announced for Q1-24 have already been incorporated into the share price.

Stifel now anticipates 'gradual but steady signs of improvement'.

The broker indicates that 2024 will remain a difficult year, but that trends are reversing, with mid-cycle targets indicating upside potential.

For 2024, Stifel estimates that EBITDA margins for Verbund should be 17%, >23% for Agro and >15% for Coatings.

Adding Automotive Catalysts, the ambition derives from a Group EBITDA of €13 billion, according to Stifel's calculations, compared with €7.7 billion in 2023.

Furthermore, 'we assume that the Group's EBITDA can reach 9.5 billion euros in 2025 and 11 billion euros in 2026', concludes the analyst, referring in particular to the contribution to this performance of Verbund's new site in Zhanjiang.

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