CLASQUIN #TPchange
Release date: 14 September 2023 | ||
Clasquin Hold | +33 1 53 65 36 55 | |
Baptiste de Leudeville | ||
Equity Research Analyst | ||
France | Support services | Beta Profile: | MCap: EUR194.1m |
Target Price: | EUR88.00 (84.00) | Change in TP: | 4.8% |
Current Price: | EUR85.00 | Change in Sales: | -1.5%23E/-1.3% 24E |
Up/downside: | 3.5% | Change in Adj EBIT: | 7.3% 23E/-1.9% 24E |
Market data: | 13 September 2023 | Change in Adj. EPS: | 8.9% 23E/-2.3% 24E |
High profitability in Q2, we raise estimates
Why this report?
Half-year reported earnings are in line with our forecasts. We note the strong QOQ development of earnings between Q1 and Q2. At the Q2 run rate, Clasquin is likely to do better in 2023 than we previously expected. We raise our EBIT estimates by 7% for 2023 on strong Q2 momentum.
Key findings
- Half-yearearnings in line with forecast (EUR11m adj. EBIT). Significant decline in profit versus exceptional 2022 comps in a context of normalising freight rates.
- Disregarding the base effect and comparing absolute numbers to the pre-covid period, earnings came in at a strong level.
- We raise our estimates after Clasquin reports a strong QOQ improvement in earnings between Q1 and Q2 (+124% QOQ increase in adj. EBIT, +10pps in conversion ratio).
Deconstructing the forecasts - We are looking at a 4% decrease in GP in 2023 and 32% decrease in EBIT as business conditions normalise.
Bloomberg: ALCLA FP | Reuters: ALCLA.PA | ||
Free float | 45.0% | ||
Avg. daily volume (EURm) | 0.1 | ||
YTD abs performance | 42.6% | ||
52-week high/low (EUR) | 89.60/45.60 | ||
FY to 31/12 (EUR) | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
Sales (m) | 844.0 | 855.1 | 886.7 |
EBITDA adj (m) | 30.9 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
EBIT adj (m) | 23.2 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
Net profit adj (m) | 13.9 | 12.3 | 12.6 |
Net financial debt (m) | 9.5 | 5.2 | -7.7 |
FCF (m) | -7.6 | 10.7 | 18.6 |
EPS adj. and ful. dil. | 6.04 | 5.31 | 5.44 |
Consensus EPS | 5.66 | 6.26 | 6.70 |
Net dividend | 2.44 | 2.15 | 2.20 |
FY to 31/12 | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
P/E adj and ful. dil. | 14.1 | 16.0 | 15.6 |
EV/EBITDA | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.7 |
EV/EBIT | 10.3 | 11.3 | 10.4 |
FCF yield | -3.9% | 5.5% | 9.6% |
Dividend yield | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Gearing | 15.7% | 7.6% | -9.8% |
ROIC | 21.2% | 15.0% | 15.3% |
EV/IC | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Investment case
- Clasquin is a top-quality company that primarily bases its success on differentiated and highly attractive positioning in the freight forwarding industry. Clasquin has been implementing a well-functioning growth model with success, as evidenced by a robust 14% gross profit CAGR since 2015.
- Successful strategy execution: 1) well-led international expansion, 2) development of niche expertise and verticals (wine & spirits, art shipping, etc.) 3) smart M&A, 4) addition of value-added services for customers.
- In 2021-22, Clasquin took advantage of the powerful recovery in global demand and the massive disruption of supply chains. We expect some kind of normalisation in 2023-24.
Catalysts - Surge in freight rates due to high demand and tight supply chain conditions.
- Broadening of offering (logistics, supply chain, digital offer).
- Business ramp-up in fast-growing regions for trade.
Clasquin
Valuation methodology
-
DCF (9.0% WACC, 3% terminal growth, 16% LT EBIT/GP).
Risks to our rating - Improving supply chain conditions create less favourable pricing environment.
- Freight capacity exceeding demand.
- Decreasing consumption and world trade.
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Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR88.00
H1 earnings roughly as expected
Clasquin reports EBITDA of EUR16.3m in H1, a decrease of 30% versus last year, and EBIT of EUR11m, down 43% from last year. Obviously, the half-year results must be read in relation to the exceptional H1 2022 numbers in the context of a very high disruption of supply chains globally and the exuberant level of freight rates. In absolute numbers, EUR11m EBIT is about three times higher than the one reported in 2018 and 2019, in the pre-covid period.
Table 1: H1 results summary (EURm)
H1 2023 | H1 2022 | H1 2023 KECH | ||
Gross profit | 67.4 | 71.7 | -6% | |
EBITDA | 16.3 | 23.4 | -30% | 15.5 |
% of GP | 24.2% | 32.6% | ||
EBIT, adj. | 11.0 | 19.3 | -43% | 11.1 |
% of GP | 16.3% | 26.9% | ||
Net profit | 6.6 | 12.9 | -49% | 7.3 |
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux
Strong growth acceleration in Q2 versus Q1
Clasquin states that earnings in Q2 have significantly increased from Q1, as indicated by an increase of 124% QOQ in adj. EBIT from EUR3.4m to EUR7.6m.
In terms of conversion ratio (EBIT/GP), it suggests 11% in Q1 and 20% in Q2. At the Q2 run-rate, it would mean EUR24m in adj. EBIT on a full-year basis, higher than the EUR21m we had in our model before raising our estimates.
Change in estimates
Based on the good momentum experienced in Q2, we take a more aggressive stance on our 2023 estimates. We raise our EBIT estimate for 2023 to EUR23.2m (8% upgrade).
Table 2: Change in 2023 estimates (EURm)
New | Old | Change | |
GP | 844 | 857 | -1% |
EBITDA | 30.9 | 29.3 | 6% |
EBIT adj. | 23.2 | 21.6 | 7% |
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux
The positive impact on our DCF amounts to EUR4 per share. We increase our TP from EUR84 to
EUR88.
keplercheuvreux.com
2
Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR88.00
Company description
Clasquin is an air and sea freight forwarder with a focus on Asia/Europe flows.
Management
Hugues Morin, CEO
Philippe Lons, CFO
Laurence Ilhe, General Secretary
Key shareholders
Free float | 45.00% |
Yves Revol | 41.90% |
Employees | 12.60% |
Others | 0.50% |
Key data charts
Price performance
90 | ||
85 | ||
80 | ||
75 | ||
70 | ||
65 | ||
60 | ||
55 | ||
50 | ||
45 | ||
Sep 22 | Mar 23 | Sep 23 |
Price | DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased) | |
FCF |
Sales split by region | Sales split by division | ||
France | |||
16.2% | Air Freight | 15% | |
EMEA (ex France) | 28% | ||
47.7% | |||
Asia Pacific | 25.0% | Sea Freight | |
America | 11.1% | 57% | |
Others
Sales and EBITDA margin | FCF and Capex to sales |
70.0 | 50.0% | |||||||||
60.0 | 40.0% | |||||||||
50.0 | ||||||||||
40.0 | 30.0% | |||||||||
30.0 | 20.0% | |||||||||
20.0 | ||||||||||
10.0 | 10.0% | |||||||||
0.0 | 0.0% | |||||||||
-10.0 | ||||||||||
-20.0 | -10.0% | |||||||||
18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23E | 24E | 25E |
Att. FCF (m) (LHS) | Att. FCF Yield | |
1,000.0 | Sales - CAGR 3Y (based on last est.): | 6.0% | 8% | ||||||
900.0 | 5.0% | 7% | |||||||
800.0 | 6% | ||||||||
700.0 | 4.0% | 5% | |||||||
600.0 | 4% | ||||||||
500.0 | 3.0% | 3% | |||||||
400.0 | 2.0% | 2% | |||||||
300.0 | 1% | ||||||||
200.0 | 1.0% | 0% | |||||||
100.0 | -1% | ||||||||
0.0 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23E | 24E | 0.0% | -2% |
25E | |||||||||
Sales (m) (LHS) | EBITDA margin |
1% | |||||||
1% | |||||||
1% | |||||||
1% | |||||||
1% | |||||||
0% | |||||||
0% | |||||||
18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23E | 24E | 0% |
25E |
FCF to sales (LHS) | Capex to sales | |
SWOT analysis
Strengths
- International integrated network (US, Europe, Asia).
- Differentiated profile (family-owned business, medium-size company).
- Diversified and balanced customer base (first customer <3% of GP).
-
Strong presence in China.
Opportunities - Disruption of global supply chain.
- Development of niche expertise /verticals (e.g. wine, fine arts).
- Broadening of offering (overseas logistics, consulting, etc.).
Weaknesses
- Limited presence in the US.
- Lower volume shipped, GP/volume, and conversion rate than competitors.
Threats
- Slowdown in global consumption and world trade.
- Collapse in freight rates.
- Relocation of production in Europe.
keplercheuvreux.com
3
Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR88.00
Valuation table | Market data as of: 13 September 2023 | |||||||||
FY to 31/12 (EUR) | 12/16 | 12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/20 | 12/21 | 12/22 | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
Per share data (EUR) | ||||||||||
EPS adjusted | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
% Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.5% | 32.2% | 241.9% | 25.7% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS adjusted and fully diluted | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 7.53 | 9.45 | 6.04 | 5.31 | 5.44 |
% Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.1% | 31.8% | 240.8% | 25.5% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS reported | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
% Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.5% | 32.2% | 241.9% | 25.7% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS Consensus | 5.66 | 6.26 | 6.70 | |||||||
Cash flow per share | 0.58 | 1.04 | 1.92 | 7.01 | 0.91 | 6.79 | 29.29 | -2.03 | 5.98 | 9.44 |
Book value per share | 8.78 | 8.57 | 9.31 | 9.53 | 11.68 | 17.07 | 22.97 | 23.29 | 27.02 | 31.17 |
DPS | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 6.50 | 2.44 | 2.15 | 2.20 |
Number of shares, YE (m) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Nbr of shares, fully diluted, YE (m) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Share price | ||||||||||
Latest price / year end | 28.4 | 36.0 | 30.0 | 35.0 | 36.7 | 76.0 | 59.6 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 |
52 week high | 35.0 | 38.2 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 41.2 | 76.0 | 75.8 | 89.6 | ||
52 week low | 23.5 | 27.3 | 30.0 | 29.7 | 18.5 | 36.5 | 45.6 | 56.0 | ||
Average price (Year) | 29.6 | 33.2 | 36.5 | 34.6 | 30.7 | 53.0 | 60.9 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 |
Enterprise value (EURm) | ||||||||||
Market capitalisation | 68.2 | 76.4 | 84.1 | 79.7 | 70.7 | 121.2 | 139.2 | 194.1 | 194.1 | 194.1 |
Net financial debt | 11.6 | 12.7 | 16.0 | 29.3 | 19.8 | 15.5 | -28.9 | 9.5 | 5.2 | -7.7 |
Pension provisions | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
IFRS 16 debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
Market value of minorities | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
MV of equity affiliates (net of tax) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Others | -1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
Enterprise value | 81.4 | 94.1 | 104.8 | 127.5 | 106.0 | 162.9 | 146.6 | 240.0 | 235.7 | 222.7 |
Valuation | ||||||||||
P/E adjusted | 42.9 | 30.7 | 30.1 | 20.6 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 13.9 | 15.8 | 15.5 |
P/E adjusted and fully diluted | 42.9 | 30.7 | 30.1 | 20.6 | 13.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 14.1 | 16.0 | 15.6 |
P/E consensus | 15.0 | 13.6 | 12.7 | |||||||
P/BV | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
P/CF | 50.8 | 31.9 | 19.0 | 4.9 | 33.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | na | 14.2 | 9.0 |
Dividend yield (%) | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
FCF yield (%) | -3.2% | -1.6% | 1.0% | 17.1% | 0.8% | 11.2% | 44.0% | -3.9% | 5.5% | 9.6% |
ROE (%) | 7.6% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 17.9% | 21.0% | 52.7% | 47.6% | 26.4% | 21.3% | 18.9% |
ROIC (%) | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 29.0% | 35.2% | 21.2% | 15.0% | 15.3% |
EV/Sales | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
EV/EBITDA adj. | 11.5 | 12.8 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 7.7 |
EV/EBIT adj. | 20.3 | 17.3 | 18.1 | 15.4 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 10.4 |
EV/NOPAT | 35.2 | 28.8 | 29.4 | 26.4 | 16.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 14.4 |
EV/IC | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
ROIC/WACC | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
EV/IC over ROIC/WACC | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
keplercheuvreux.com
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Clasquin Hold | Target Price: EUR88.00
Income statement
FY to 31/12 (EUR) | 12/16 | 12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/20 | 12/21 | 12/22 | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
Sales | 235.0 | 290.6 | 308.3 | 331.3 | 392.0 | 752.2 | 877.1 | 844.0 | 855.1 | 886.7 |
Gross profit | 57.5 | 62.9 | 68.9 | 76.7 | 76.2 | 121.9 | 140.0 | 134.7 | 136.5 | 141.5 |
EBITDA reported | 7.1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 38.2 | 40.3 | 30.9 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
EBITDA adjusted | 7.1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 38.2 | 40.3 | 30.9 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
Depreciation and amortisation | -2.0 | -1.9 | -2.8 | -5.6 | -7.0 | -10.8 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -7.7 |
Goodwill impairment | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other financial result and associates | -1.1 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
EBIT reported | 4.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 27.3 | 34.0 | 23.2 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
EBIT adjusted | 4.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 27.3 | 34.0 | 23.2 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
Net financial items | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Associates | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Others | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -1.7 | -1.2 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
Earnings before tax | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 25.1 | 32.6 | 21.8 | 19.5 | 19.9 |
Tax | -1.5 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -6.1 | -8.9 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -5.4 |
Net profit from continuing op. | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 18.9 | 23.7 | 15.9 | 14.2 | 14.5 |
Net profit from disc. activities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net profit before minorities | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 18.9 | 23.7 | 15.9 | 14.2 | 14.5 |
Minorities | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
Net profit reported | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 17.4 | 21.8 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 12.6 |
Adjustments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net profit adjusted | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 17.4 | 21.8 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 12.6 |
Sales % Change | 0.3% | 23.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 18.3% | 91.9% | 16.6% | -3.8% | 1.3% | 3.7% |
EBITDA reported % Change | -13.8% | 3.7% | 25.7% | 49.7% | 20.3% | 129.0% | 5.5% | -23.2% | -7.5% | 1.4% |
EBITDA adjusted % Change | -13.8% | 3.7% | 25.7% | 49.7% | 20.3% | 129.0% | 5.5% | -23.2% | -7.5% | 1.4% |
EBIT reported % Change | -36.2% | 35.5% | 6.3% | 42.9% | 16.7% | 182.9% | 24.9% | -31.8% | -9.9% | 1.9% |
EBIT adjusted % Change | -36.2% | 35.5% | 6.3% | 42.9% | 16.7% | 182.9% | 24.9% | -31.8% | -9.9% | 1.9% |
Earnings before tax % Change | -42.4% | 35.7% | 14.2% | 38.4% | 5.9% | 210.3% | 30.2% | -33.1% | -10.6% | 2.1% |
Net profit from cont. op. % Change | -51.6% | 41.4% | 17.1% | 31.6% | 21.7% | 248.4% | 25.4% | -33.1% | -10.6% | 2.1% |
Net profit reported % Change | -52.5% | 56.5% | 12.2% | 38.6% | 32.2% | 239.7% | 25.4% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
Net profit adjusted % Change | -52.5% | 56.5% | 12.2% | 38.6% | 32.2% | 239.7% | 25.4% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
Gross profit margin (%) | 24.5% | 21.6% | 22.3% | 23.2% | 19.4% | 16.2% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
EBITDA margin (%) | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
EBIT margin (%) | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
Net profit margin (%) | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
Tax rate (%) | 42.4% | 39.9% | 38.4% | 41.5% | 32.8% | 24.5% | 27.3% | 27.3% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
Payout ratio (%) | 115.8% | 74.0% | 53.6% | 0.0% | 58.9% | 45.2% | 68.8% | 40.4% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
EPS reported (EUR) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
EPS adjusted (EUR) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
EPS adj and fully diluted (EUR) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 7.53 | 9.45 | 6.04 | 5.31 | 5.44 |
DPS (EUR) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 6.50 | 2.44 | 2.15 | 2.20 |
EPS reported % Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.5% | 32.2% | 241.9% | 25.7% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS adjusted % Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.5% | 32.2% | 241.9% | 25.7% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS adj and fully diluted % Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.1% | 31.8% | 240.8% | 25.5% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
DPS % Change | -36.0% | 0.0% | -18.8% | -chg | +chg | 161.5% | 91.2% | -62.4% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
Consensus Sales (EURm) | 712.8 | 757.3 | 793.9 | |||||||
Consensus EBITDA (EURm) | 28.9 | 32.1 | 34.8 | |||||||
Consensus EBIT (EURm) | 20.6 | 23.1 | 22.8 | |||||||
Consensus EPS (EUR) | 5.66 | 6.26 | 6.70 |
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Clasquin SA published this content on 14 September 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 14 September 2023 10:24:11 UTC.
