CLASQUIN #TPchange
Release date: 22 March 2024
Clasquin Hold
Baptiste de Leudeville Equity Research Analyst +33 1 53 65 36 55
France | Support services
Beta Profile:
MCap: EUR286.6m
Target Price: Current Price: Up/downside: Market data:
EUR142.00 (132.00)
EUR125.50 13.1%
21 March 2024
Change in TP: Change in Sales: Change in Adj EBIT: Change in Adj. EPS:
7.6% none 23E/none 24E none 23E/none 24E none 23E/none 24E
Bloomberg: ALCLA FP
Reuters: ALCLA.PAFree float 45.0%
Avg. daily volume (EURm) 0.1
YTD abs performance 1.6%
52-week high/low (EUR)
130.00/57.40
Attractive price set
FY to 31/12 (EUR)
12/23E 12/24E 12/25E
Sales (m)
Why this report?
Yves Revol and SAS have agreed on a transaction price of EUR142 per share. Once the transaction is done (expected by the end of the current year), a public tender offer will follow at a similar price. We think the price is attractive for minority shareholders. We align our TP with the set price.
EBITDA adj (m) EBIT adj (m)
Net profit adj (m) Net financial debt (m) FCF (m)
Key findings
EPS adj. and ful. dil. Consensus EPS Net dividend
▪ CEO and founder Yves Revol agreed to sell his 42% stake in Clasquin at EUR142 per share to SAS, a subsidiary of MSC. Key top managers have committed to tender 8.5% of the share capital. A public tender offer will follow.
FY to 31/12
12/23E 12/24E 12/25E
▪ This is a new premium of 13% versus the last closing price (+60% compared to the first announcement made on 4 December).
▪ Implied transaction multiples indicate nearly 10x EV/EBITDA, 12x EV/EBIT, and 18x P/E on 2023 reported figures (only slightly short of K+N multiples).
P/E adj and ful. dil. EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT FCF yield Dividend yield ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA Gearing
20.8
23.6 23.1
10.9
11.7 11.4
14.5
15.9 15.5
0.3%
3.8% 3.5%
2.4%
2.1% 2.2%
0.7
0.6 0.5
1.8%
-2.8% -6.6%
▪ We believe EUR142 is a solid price. If the public tender goes through (approvals from the competent regulatory authorities are required), we advise readers to accept the offer.
ROIC EV/IC
22.4%
16.4% 15.9%
3.7
3.5 3.3
▪ The company will hold a presentation this morning.
Deconstructing the forecasts
▪ Clasquin released very strong results the day before. EBIT of EUR29.5m, exceeding our forecasts by 27%.
Investment case
Valuation methodology
n Clasquin is a top-quality company that primarily bases its success on differentiated and highly attractive positioning in the freight forwarding industry. Clasquin has been implementing a well-functioning growth model with success, as evidenced by a robust 14% gross profit CAGR since 2015.
n DCF (9.0% WACC, 3% terminal growth, 16% LT EBIT/GP).
Risks to our rating
n Improving supply chain conditions create less favourable pricing environment.
n Freight capacity exceeding demand.
n Successful strategy execution: 1) well-led international expansion, 2) development of niche expertise and verticals (wine & spirits, art shipping, etc.) 3) smart M&A, 4) addition of value-added services for customers.
n Decreasing consumption and world trade.
n In 2021-22, Clasquin took advantage of powerful recovery in global demand and massive disruption of supply chains. We expect some kind of normalisation in 2023-24.
Catalysts
n Surge in freight rates due to high demand and tight supply chain conditions.
n Broadening of offering (logistics, supply chain, digital offer).
n Business ramp-up in fast-growing regions for trade.
Clasquin
844.0 | 855.1 | 886.7 |
30.9 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
23.2 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
13.9 | 12.3 | 12.6 |
1.1 | -1.9 | -5.0 |
0.8 | 10.8 | 10.0 |
6.04 | 5.31 | 5.44 |
7.90 | 7.33 | 7.20 |
3.05 | 2.68 | 2.75 |
Company description
Clasquin is an air and sea freight forwarder with a focus on Asia/Europe flows.
Management
Hugues Morin, CEO Philippe Lons, CFO
Laurence Ilhe, General Secretary
Key shareholders
Free float 45.00%
Yves Revol 41.90%
Employees 12.60%
Others 0.50%
Key data charts
Price performance
Sales split by region
Sales split by division
11.1% 57%
FCF
Sales and EBITDA margin
1,000.0 Sales - CAGR 3Y (based on last est.):
900.0
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.00.0% 21
18
19
20
Sales (m) (LHS)
6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%
22 23E 24E 25EEBITDA margin
FCF and Capex to sales
SWOT analysis
Strengths
n International integrated network (US, Europe, Asia).
n Differentiated profile (family-owned business, medium-size company).
n Diversified and balanced customer base (first customer <3% of GP).
n Strong presence in China.
Weaknesses n Limited presence in the US.
n Lower volume shipped, GP/volume, and conversion rate than competitors.
Opportunities
n Disruption of global supply chain.
n Development of niche expertise /verticals (e.g. wine, fine arts).
n Broadening of offering (overseas logistics, consulting, etc.).
Threats
n Slowdown in global consumption and world trade.
n Collapse in freight rates.
n Relocation of production in Europe.
Price performanceSales split by regionSales split by divisionFCFSales and EBITDA marginFCF and Capex to sales
Valuation table
Market data as of: 21 March 2024
FY to 31/12 (EUR) | 12/16 | 12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/20 | 12/21 | 12/22 | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
Per share data (EUR) | ||||||||||
EPS adjusted | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
% Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.5% | 32.2% | 241.9% | 25.7% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS adjusted and fully diluted | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 7.53 | 9.45 | 6.04 | 5.31 | 5.44 |
% Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.1% | 31.8% | 240.8% | 25.5% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS reported | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
% Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.5% | 32.2% | 241.9% | 25.7% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS Consensus | 7.90 | 7.33 | 7.20 | |||||||
Cash flow per share | 0.58 | 1.04 | 1.92 | 7.01 | 0.91 | 6.79 | 29.29 | 1.67 | 6.03 | 5.70 |
Book value per share | 8.78 | 8.57 | 9.31 | 9.53 | 11.68 | 17.07 | 22.97 | 23.29 | 26.39 | 30.00 |
DPS | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 6.50 | 3.05 | 2.68 | 2.75 |
Number of shares, YE (m) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Nbr of shares, fully diluted, YE (m) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Share price | ||||||||||
Latest price / year end | 28.4 | 36.0 | 30.0 | 35.0 | 36.7 | 76.0 | 59.6 | 123.5 | 125.5 | 125.5 |
52 week high | 35.0 | 38.2 | 42.5 | 38.4 | 41.2 | 76.0 | 75.8 | 125.0 | 130.0 | |
52 week low | 23.5 | 27.3 | 30.0 | 29.7 | 18.5 | 36.5 | 45.6 | 56.0 | 122.5 | |
Average price (Year) | 29.6 | 33.2 | 36.5 | 34.6 | 30.7 | 53.0 | 60.9 | 76.4 | 125.5 | 125.5 |
Enterprise value (EURm) | ||||||||||
Market capitalisation | 68.2 | 76.4 | 84.1 | 79.7 | 70.7 | 121.2 | 139.2 | 286.6 | 286.6 | 286.6 |
Net financial debt | 11.6 | 12.7 | 16.0 | 29.3 | 19.8 | 15.5 | -28.9 | 1.1 | -1.9 | -5.0 |
Pension provisions | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
IFRS 16 debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
Market value of minorities | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
MV of equity affiliates (net of tax) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Others | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
Enterprise value | 82.8 | 93.2 | 103.9 | 134.2 | 113.8 | 166.5 | 159.1 | 336.5 | 333.5 | 330.4 |
Valuation | ||||||||||
P/E adjusted | 42.9 | 30.7 | 30.1 | 20.6 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 20.6 | 23.4 | 22.8 |
P/E adjusted and fully diluted | 42.9 | 30.7 | 30.1 | 20.6 | 13.9 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 20.8 | 23.6 | 23.1 |
P/E consensus | 15.9 | 17.1 | 17.4 | |||||||
P/BV | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
P/CF | 50.8 | 31.9 | 19.0 | 4.9 | 33.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 75.1 | 20.8 | 22.0 |
Dividend yield (%) | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
Share buybacks over market cap (%) | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Attributable FCF yield (%) | -3.2% | -1.6% | 1.0% | 17.1% | 0.8% | 11.2% | 44.0% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
ROE (%) | 7.6% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 17.9% | 21.0% | 52.7% | 47.6% | 26.4% | 21.6% | 19.5% |
ROIC (%) | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 29.0% | 35.2% | 22.4% | 16.4% | 15.9% |
EV/Sales | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.37 |
EV/EBITDA adj. | 11.7 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 11.4 |
EV/EBIT adj. | 20.6 | 17.1 | 18.0 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 14.5 | 15.9 | 15.5 |
EV/NOPAT | 35.8 | 28.5 | 29.2 | 27.8 | 17.6 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 19.9 | 21.9 | 21.3 |
EV/IC | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
ROIC/WACC | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
EV/IC over ROIC/WACC | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
3 |
Income statement
FY to 31/12 (EUR) | 12/16 | 12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/20 | 12/21 | 12/22 | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
Sales | 235.0 | 290.6 | 308.3 | 331.3 | 392.0 | 752.2 | 877.1 | 844.0 | 855.1 | 886.7 |
Sales % Change | 0.3% | 23.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 18.3% | 91.9% | 16.6% | -3.8% | 1.3% | 3.7% |
Gross profit | 57.5 | 62.9 | 68.9 | 76.7 | 76.2 | 121.9 | 140.0 | 134.7 | 136.5 | 141.5 |
Gross profit margin (%) | 24.5% | 21.6% | 22.3% | 23.2% | 19.4% | 16.2% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
EBITDA reported | 7.1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 38.2 | 40.3 | 30.9 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
EBITDA adjusted | 7.1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 38.2 | 40.3 | 30.9 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
EBITDA adjusted % Change | -13.8% | 3.7% | 25.7% | 49.7% | 20.3% | 129.0% | 5.5% | -23.2% | -7.5% | 1.4% |
Depreciation and amortisation | -2.0 | -1.9 | -2.8 | -5.6 | -7.0 | -10.8 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -7.7 |
Goodwill impairment | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other financial result and associates | -1.1 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
EBIT reported | 4.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 27.3 | 34.0 | 23.2 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
EBIT adjusted | 4.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 27.3 | 34.0 | 23.2 | 20.9 | 21.3 |
EBIT margin (%) | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
EBIT adjusted % Change | -36.2% | 35.5% | 6.3% | 42.9% | 16.7% | 182.9% | 24.9% | -31.8% | -9.9% | 1.9% |
Net financial items | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Associates | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Others | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -1.7 | -1.2 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
Earnings before tax | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 25.1 | 32.6 | 21.8 | 19.5 | 19.9 |
Tax | -1.5 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -6.1 | -8.9 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -5.4 |
Tax rate (%) | 42% | 40% | 38% | 41% | 33% | 25% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
Net profit from continuing op. | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 18.9 | 23.7 | 15.9 | 14.2 | 14.5 |
Net profit from disc. activities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net profit before minorities | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 18.9 | 23.7 | 15.9 | 14.2 | 14.5 |
Minorities | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
Net profit reported | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 17.4 | 21.8 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 12.6 |
Adjustments | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net profit adjusted | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 17.4 | 21.8 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 12.6 |
Net profit margin (%) | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
Net profit adjusted % Change | -52.5% | 56.5% | 12.2% | 38.6% | 32.2% | 239.7% | 25.4% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
EPS reported (EUR) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
EPS adjusted (EUR) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.22 | 7.60 | 9.55 | 6.10 | 5.37 | 5.50 |
EPS adj. and fully diluted (EUR) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.21 | 7.53 | 9.45 | 6.04 | 5.31 | 5.44 |
EPS adj. and fully diluted % Change | -52.4% | 56.5% | 12.3% | 38.1% | 31.8% | 240.8% | 25.5% | -36.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
DPS (EUR) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 6.50 | 3.05 | 2.68 | 2.75 |
DPS % Change | -36.0% | 0.0% | -18.8% | -chg | +chg | 161.5% | 91.2% | -53.1% | -12.0% | 2.4% |
Payout ratio (%) | 116% | 74% | 54% | 0% | 59% | 45% | 69% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
Consensus Sales (EURm) | 562.1 | 596.8 | 626.9 | |||||||
Consensus EBITDA (EURm) | 33.8 | 34.9 | 35.4 | |||||||
Consensus EBIT (EURm) | 26.0 | 26.6 | 26.1 | |||||||
Consensus EPS (EUR) | 7.90 | 7.33 | 7.20 | |||||||
4 |
Cash flow statement
Market data as of: 21 March 2024
FY to 31/12 (EUR) | 12/16 | 12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/20 | 12/21 | 12/22 | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
Net profit before minorities | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 18.9 | 23.7 | 15.9 | 14.2 | 14.5 |
Depreciation and amortisation | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
Goodwill impairment | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Change in working capital | -2.7 | -2.7 | -1.6 | 5.5 | -11.6 | -17.8 | 35.2 | -20.4 | -8.8 | -9.8 |
Others | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
Levered post tax CF before capex | 1.3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 16.2 | 2.1 | 15.5 | 66.9 | 3.8 | 13.8 | 13.0 |
% Change | -83.7% | 78.4% | 84.7% | 264.7% | -87.0% | 638.3% | 330.3% | -94.3% | 261.0% | -5.5% |
Capex | -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.6 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -5.6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 |
Free cash flow | -2.2 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 13.7 | 0.6 | 13.6 | 61.3 | 0.8 | 10.8 | 10.0 |
% Change | -chg | +chg | +chg | 1544.9% | -95.8% | 2269.2% | 349.7% | -98.7% | 1222.1% | -7.0% |
Acquisitions | -0.6 | 0.0 | -1.9 | -7.1 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -2.2 | -15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Divestments | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Dividend paid | -2.9 | -1.9 | -2.6 | -1.7 | -0.6 | -3.2 | -9.0 | -15.1 | -7.1 | -6.3 |
Share buy back | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Capital increases | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Others | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -1.2 | -2.2 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
Change in net financial debt | 9.9 | 6.5 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 2.2 | -9.2 | -49.0 | 30.0 | -3.0 | -3.1 |
Change in cash and cash equiv. | 1.5 | -1.7 | 3.0 | 5.3 | -2.7 | 11.6 | 18.6 | -30.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
Attributable FCF | -2.2 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 13.7 | 0.6 | 13.6 | 61.3 | 0.8 | 10.8 | 10.0 |
Cash flow per share (EUR) | 0.58 | 1.04 | 1.92 | 7.01 | 0.91 | 6.79 | 29.29 | 1.67 | 6.03 | 5.70 |
% Change | -83.7% | 78.4% | 84.9% | 264.4% | -87.0% | 643.1% | 331.2% | -94.3% | 261.0% | -5.5% |
FCF per share (EUR) | -0.96 | -0.52 | 0.36 | 5.93 | 0.25 | 5.95 | 26.82 | 0.36 | 4.72 | 4.39 |
% Change | -chg | +chg | +chg | 1543.5% | -95.8% | 2284.7% | 350.6% | -98.7% | 1222.1% | -7.0% |
Capex / Sales (%) | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
Capex / D&A (%) | 180.7% | 188.4% | 126.9% | 45.0% | 22.0% | 17.9% | 73.3% | 39.0% | 39.0% | 39.0% |
Cash flow / Sales (%) | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 7.6% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
FCF / Sales (%) | -0.9% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
FCF Yield (%) | -3.2% | -1.6% | 1.0% | 17.1% | 0.8% | 11.2% | 44.0% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
Unlevered FCF Yield (%) | -2.5% | -1.1% | 0.9% | 10.3% | 1.0% | 8.6% | 38.8% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
5 |
Balance sheet
FY to 31/12 (EUR) | 12/16 | 12/17 | 12/18 | 12/19 | 12/20 | 12/21 | 12/22 | 12/23E | 12/24E | 12/25E |
Cash and cash equivalents | 21.9 | 20.2 | 23.2 | 28.5 | 25.8 | 37.4 | 56.0 | 26.0 | 29.1 | 32.2 |
Inventories | -5.0 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Accounts receivable | 65.5 | 73.6 | 79.9 | 79.8 | 88.3 | 180.2 | 115.9 | 136.3 | 207.1 | 286.3 |
Other current assets | 3.4 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 18.2 | 35.2 | 18.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 14.2 | 19.7 |
Current assets | 85.8 | 95.3 | 106.9 | 124.5 | 148.2 | 236.3 | 181.2 | 171.7 | 250.3 | 338.1 |
Tangible assets | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 16.9 | 28.6 | 25.4 | 22.3 | 19.2 |
Goodwill | 15.0 | 14.7 | 16.3 | 24.5 | 23.7 | 26.7 | 29.8 | 44.8 | 44.8 | 44.8 |
Other Intangible assets | 4.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
Financial assets | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other non-current assets | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Non-current assets | 27.0 | 27.4 | 30.3 | 47.8 | 45.9 | 51.6 | 67.3 | 77.6 | 72.9 | 68.2 |
Short term debt | 14.0 | 18.6 | 25.0 | 39.5 | 8.2 | 17.8 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Accounts payable | 49.9 | 53.5 | 61.6 | 73.0 | 86.3 | 126.7 | 89.6 | 89.6 | 136.2 | 188.4 |
Other short term liabilities | 10.0 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 0.8 | 18.3 | 40.6 | 39.1 | 39.1 | 59.4 | 82.1 |
Current liabilities | 73.8 | 85.0 | 97.4 | 113.3 | 112.8 | 185.1 | 137.4 | 137.4 | 204.3 | 279.2 |
Long term debt | 19.6 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 18.3 | 37.3 | 35.1 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.4 |
Pension provisions | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
IFRS16 Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
Other long term provisions | -5.0 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other long term liabilities | 1.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
Non-current liabilities | 15.8 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 32.2 | 50.4 | 57.5 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 51.2 |
Shareholders' equity | 20.2 | 19.7 | 21.4 | 21.9 | 26.9 | 39.1 | 52.5 | 53.2 | 60.3 | 68.5 |
Minority interests | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 |
Total equity | 23.2 | 22.9 | 24.5 | 26.8 | 30.9 | 45.4 | 59.9 | 60.6 | 67.7 | 76.0 |
Balance sheet total | 112.8 | 122.7 | 137.2 | 172.3 | 194.2 | 288.0 | 248.6 | 249.3 | 323.3 | 406.4 |
% Change | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 25.6% | 12.7% | 48.3% | -13.7% | 0.3% | 29.7% | 25.7% |
Book value per share (EUR) | 8.78 | 8.57 | 9.31 | 9.53 | 11.68 | 17.07 | 22.97 | 23.29 | 26.39 | 30.00 |
% Change | -6.9% | -2.4% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 22.6% | 46.1% | 34.6% | 1.4% | 13.3% | 13.7% |
Net financial debt | 11.6 | 12.7 | 16.0 | 29.3 | 19.8 | 15.5 | -28.9 | 1.1 | -1.9 | -5.0 |
IFRS16 Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
Pension provisions | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Others | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
Net debt | 11.6 | 13.6 | 16.8 | 49.7 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 12.5 | 42.4 | 39.4 | 36.3 |
Net fi. debt (+IFRS16) / EBITDA (x) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Trade working capital | 10.6 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 53.5 | 26.2 | 46.6 | 70.8 | 98.0 |
Net working capital | 4.0 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 22.1 | 17.9 | 31.6 | -3.5 | 16.9 | 25.7 | 35.5 |
NWC/Sales | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | -0.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
Inventories/sales | -2.1% | -1.4% | -1.0% | -0.6% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Invested capital | 28.3 | 33.3 | 39.0 | 67.7 | 61.0 | 80.7 | 59.9 | 90.6 | 94.7 | 99.8 |
Net fin. debt / FCF (x) | -5.3 | -10.7 | 19.2 | 2.1 | 34.4 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Gearing (%) | 50.0% | 55.7% | 65.2% | 109.2% | 63.9% | 34.1% | -48.2% | 1.8% | -2.8% | -6.6% |
Goodwill / Equity (%) | 64.6% | 64.4% | 66.7% | 91.3% | 76.6% | 58.7% | 49.8% | 74.0% | 66.2% | 59.0% |
6 |
Research ratings and important disclosures
The term "KEPLER CHEUVREUX" shall, unless the context otherwise requires, mean each of KEPLER CHEUVREUX and its affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies (see "Regulators" table below).
The investment recommendation(s) referred to in this report was (were) completed on 22/03/2024 07:24 (GMT) and was first disseminated on 22/03/2024 07:36 (GMT).
Unless otherwise stated, all prices are aligned with the "Market Data date" on the front page of this report.
Disclosure checklist - Potential conflict of interests
Company Name | ISIN | Disclosure |
Clasquin | FR0004152882 | KEPLER CHEUVREUX and the issuer have agreed that KEPLER CHEUVREUX will produce and disseminate investment |
research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer |
Organizational and administrative arrangements to avoid and prevent conflicts of interests
KEPLER CHEUVREUX promotes and disseminates independent investment research and have implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The KEPLER CHEUVREUX research analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of KEPLER CHEUVREUX Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research analysts and staff involved in securities trading for the account of KEPLER CHEUVREUX or clients to ensure that price sensitive information is handled according to applicable laws and regulations.
It is Kepler Cheuvreux' policy not to disclose the rating to the issuer before publication and dissemination. Nevertheless, this document, in whole or in part, and with the exclusion of ratings, target prices and any other information that could lead to determine its valuation, may have been provided to the issuer prior to publication and dissemination, solely with the aim of verifying factual accuracy.
Please refer towww.keplercheuvreux.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest management.
Analyst disclosures
The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity/Credit Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover.
Name of the Research Analyst(s): Baptiste de Leudeville
Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) listed on the front-page of this report, principally responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report hereby certifies that, with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the equity research analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst(s) also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that equity research analyst in this research report.
Each Equity/Credit Research Analyst certifies that he is acting independently and impartially from KEPLER CHEUVREUX shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any KEPLER CHEUVREUX activities.
Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of the research report attest that no part of the analyst's(s') compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed by the research analyst(s) in the research report. The research analyst's(s') compensation is, however, determined by the overall economic performance of KEPLER CHEUVREUX.
Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are employees of KEPLER CHEUVREUX, which is a non-US affiliate and parent company of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity/Credit Research Analysts employed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX, are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, may not be associated persons of Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Research ratings
Kepler Cheuvreux rating split as of 22 March 2024
Rating Breakdown | A | B |
Buy | 55% | 61% |
Hold | 32% | 28% |
Reduce | 10% | 7% |
Not Rated/Under Review/Accept Offer | 3% | 4% |
Total | 100% | 100% |
Source: Kepler Cheuvreux | ||
A: % of all research recommendations | ||
B: % of issuers to which material services of investment firms are supplied | ||
12 months rating history |
The below table shows the history of recommendations and target prices changes issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX research department (Equity and Credit) over a 12 months period.
Company Name | Date | Business Line | Rating | Target Price | Closing Price |
Clasquin (EUR) | 04/05/2023 05:51 | Equity Research | Hold | 76.00 | 70.20 |
28/07/2023 06:54 | Equity Research | Hold | 84.00 | 78.60 | |
14/09/2023 06:22 | Equity Research | Hold | 88.00 | 85.00 | |
06/12/2023 05:50 | Equity Research | Hold | 132.00 | 125.00 |
Credit research does not issue target prices. Left intentionally blank.
Please refer to the following linkhttps://research.keplercheuvreux.com/disclosure/stock/ for a full list of investment recommendations issued over the last 12 months by the author(s) and contributor(s) of this report on any financial instruments.
Equity research
Rating system
KEPLER CHEUVREUX equity research ratings and target prices are issued in absolute terms, not relative to any given benchmark. A rating on a stock is set after assessing the twelve months expected upside or downside of the stock derived from the analyst's fair value (target price) and in the light of the risk profile of the company. Ratings are defined as follows:
Buy: The minimum expected upside is 10% over next 12 months (the minimum required upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile). Hold: The expected upside is below 10% (the expected upside could be higher in light of the company's risk profile).
Reduce: There is an expected downside.
Accept offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offer price is considered to be fairly valuing the shares. Reject offer: In the context of a total or partial take-over bid, squeeze-out or similar share purchase proposals, the offered price is considered to be undervaluing the shares.
Under review: An event occurred with an expected significant impact on our target price and we cannot issue a recommendation before having processed that new information and/or without a new share price reference.
Not rated: The stock is not covered.
Restricted: A recommendation, target price and/or financial forecast is not disclosed further to compliance and/or other regulatory considerations. Due to share prices volatility, ratings and target prices may occasionally and temporarily be inconsistent with the above definition.
Valuation methodology and risks
Unless otherwise stated in this report, target prices and investment recommendations are determined based on fundamental research methodologies and relies on commonly used valuation methodologies such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), valuation multiples comparison with history and peers, Dividend Discount Model (DDM).
Valuation methodologies and models can be highly dependent on macroeconomic factors (such as the price of commodities, exchange rates and interest rates) as well as other external factors including taxation, regulation and geopolitical changes (such as tax policy changes, strikes or war). In addition, investors' confidence and market sentiment can affect the valuation of companies. The valuation is also based on expectations that might change rapidly and without notice, depending on developments specific to individual industries. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe.
Unless otherwise stated, models used are proprietary. Additional information about the proprietary models used in this report is accessible on request.
KEPLER CHEUVREUX' equity research policy is to update research rating when it deems appropriate in the light of new findings, markets development and any relevant information that can impact the analyst's view and opinion.
Regulators
Location | Regulator | Abbreviation |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX S.A - France | Autorité des Marchés Financiers | AMF |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Sucursal en España | Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores | CNMV |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Frankfurt branch | Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht | BaFin |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Milan branch | Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa | CONSOB |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Amsterdam branch | Autoriteit Financiële Markten | AFM |
Kepler Capital Markets SA - Switzerland, Zurich branch | Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority | FINMA |
Kepler Capital Markets, Inc. | Financial Industry Regulatory Authority | FINRA |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, London branch | Financial Conduct Authority | FCA |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Vienna branch | Austrian Financial Services Authority | FMA |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Stockholm Branch | Finansinspektionen | FI |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX Oslo Branch | Finanstilsynet | NFSA |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX, Bruxelles Branch | Autorité des Services et Marchés Financiers | FSMA |
KEPLER CHEUVREUX is authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel and Autorité des Marchés Financiers.
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Legal and disclosure information
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KCM, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of KEPLER CHEUVREUX. KEPLER CHEUVREUX , registered on the Paris Register of Companies with the number 413 064 841 (1997 B 10253), whose registered office is located at 112 avenue Kléber, 75016 Paris, is authorised and regulated by both Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (ACP) and Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF).
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Italy: This document is issued by KEPLER CHEUVREUX Milan branch, authorised in France by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) and the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (ACP) and registered in Italy by the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) and is distributed by KEPLER CHEUVREUX. This document is for Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only as defined by the CONSOB Regulation 16190/2007 (art. 26 and art. 58).Other classes of persons should not rely on this document. Reports on issuers of financial instruments listed by Article 180, paragraph 1, letter a) of the Italian Consolidated Act on Financial Services (Legislative Decree No. 58 of 24/2/1998, as amended from time to time) must comply with the requirements envisaged by articles 69 to 69-novies of CONSOB Regulation 11971/1999. According to these provisions KEPLER CHEUVREUX warns on the significant interests of KEPLER CHEUVREUX indicated in Annex 1 hereof, confirms that there are not significant financial interests of KEPLER CHEUVREUX in relation to the securities object of this report as well as other circumstance or relationship with the issuer of the securities object of this report (including but not limited to conflict of interest, significant shareholdings held in or by the issuer and other significant interests held by KEPLER CHEUVREUX or other entities controlling or subject to control by KEPLER CHEUVREUX in relation to the issuer which may affect the impartiality of this document]. Equities discussed herein are covered on a continuous basis with regular reports at results release. Reports are released on the date shown on cover and distributed via print and email. KEPLER CHEUVREUX branch di Milano analysts is not affiliated with any professional groups or organisations. All estimates are by KEPLER CHEUVREUX unless otherwise stated.
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