Morgan Stanley anticipates little impact on its forecasts for Origin Energy from the draft Default Market Offer for FY25 issued by the Australian Energy Regulator.

The draft sees modest bill reductions across SA and Eastern NSW, but not Western NSW and SEQ, explain the analysts.

Origin Energy had previously flagged the key headwind from wholesale cost allowances in NSW falling by circa -$15/MWh year-on-year.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $8.88 are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Sector: Utilities.

Target price is $8.88.Current Price is $9.11. Difference: ($0.23) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately -3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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