Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates

NatWest Group Investor Relations

20 March 2024

NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates (Average)

Models as at 20 March 2024

Quarter

Full year

Q4'23

Q1'24E

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

Quarter

Full year

Q4'23 Q1'24E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E

Analysts included in consensus

9

12

12

12

NatWest Group

Group income statement, £m

Net interest income

2,638

2,541

11,049

10,232

10,712

11,248

Non-interest income

899

860

3,703

3,314

3,387

3,478

Total income

3,537

3,400

14,752

13,546

14,099

14,726

Other operating expenses

(2,041)

(1,894)

(7,641)

(7,677)

(7,827)

(7,993)

Litigaton and conduct

(113)

(67)

(355)

(279)

(260)

(250)

Operating expenses

(2,154)

(1,961)

(7,996)

(7,956)

(8,086)

(8,242)

Operating profit before impairment losses

1,383

1,439

6,756

5,590

6,012

6,484

Impairment losses

(126)

(191)

(578)

(777)

(994)

(1,071)

Operating profit/(loss) before tax

1,257

1,248

6,178

4,813

5,018

5,413

Tax (charge)/credit

5

(355)

(1,434)

(1,355)

(1,403)

(1,520)

Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations

1,262

894

4,744

3,458

3,615

3,893

Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax

26

(2)

(112)

(11)

(0)

(0)

Profit/(loss) for the period

1,288

892

4,632

3,447

3,615

3,893

Attributable to:

Ordinary shareholders

1,229

830

4,394

3,201

3,367

3,644

Other owners

60

61

242

248

249

250

Non-controlling interests

(1)

0

(4)

(1)

(1)

(1)

Notable items

Notable items in income

95

(4)

413

22

(11)

(8)

Net interest income notable items

(32)

0

(32)

0

0

0

Non-interest income notable items

127

(4)

445

22

(11)

(8)

Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items

2,670

2,541

11,081

10,232

10,712

11,248

Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items

772

863

3,258

3,292

3,398

3,486

Memo: Total income excluding all notable items

3,442

3,404

14,339

13,524

14,110

14,734

Notable items in expenses

0

0

0

0

0

0

Memo: Ulster direct costs

(69)

(25)

(275)

(94)

(38)

0

Analysts included in consensus

9

Group balance sheet and capital, £bn

Net loans to customers (amortised cost)

381.4

382.1

Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs)

524.7

523.6

Total assets

692.7

697.4

Customer deposits

431.4

422.2

Customer deposits across the 3 business segments*

419.1

410.9

Risk-weighted assets

183.0

184.5

Tangible equity

25.7

25.4

Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE)

24.4

25.6

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end

8,792

8,720

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average

8,816

8,786

Key metrics and ratios

Group net interest margin

1.99%

1.97%

Cost:income ratio

57.7%

55.7%

Loan impairment rate

0.13%

0.20%

Return on tangible equity

20.1%

12.9%

Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p)

20.5p

9.4p

Ordinary DPS (p)

11.5p

--

On-market buybacks (£m)

300

-

Directed buy-backs (£m)

-

-

Total buy-backs (£m)

300

-

Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p)

292p

292p

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio - transitional basis

13.4%

13.5%

Interest rate expectations

UK base rate (end of period)

5.25%

5.25%

UK base rate (average for the period)

5.25%

5.25%

12

12

12

381.4

388.5

398.4

408.4

520.6

526.6

533.4

541.9

692.7

702.3

713.4

723.4

431.4

433.3

438.6

445.4

419.1

418.7

424.4

432.4

183.0

189.5

199.3

204.5

25.7

26.4

27.8

29.4

24.7

25.8

27.1

28.6

8,792

8,249

7,854

7,493

9,164

8,507

8,045

7,667

2.12%

1.94%

2.01%

2.08%

51.8%

56.7%

55.5%

54.3%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.26%

17.8%

12.3%

12.4%

12.7%

47.9p

37.6p

41.8p

47.5p

17.0p

15.9p

17.2p

19.0p

800

266

309

477

1,259

969

788

659

2,059

1,235

1,006

1,041

292p

320p

354p

393p

13.4%

13.3%

13.1%

13.3%

5.25%

4.40%

3.45%

3.29%

4.69%

4.92%

3.87%

3.32%

*Customer deposits across the 3 businesses reflect Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional deposits. Group customer deposits also include Ulster Bank RoI and Treasury.

2

NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low)

Models as at 20 March 2024

Quarter

Q1'24

Analysts included in consensus

9

NatWest Group

Low

Average

High

Group income statement, £m

Net interest income

2,438

2,541

2,600

Non-interest income

773

860

938

Total income

3,335

3,400

3,493

Other operating expenses

(1,927)

(1,894)

(1,820)

Litigaton and conduct

(93)

(67)

(50)

Operating expenses

(1,999)

(1,961)

(1,882)

Operating profit before impairment losses

1,362

1,439

1,521

Impairment losses

(253)

(191)

(152)

Operating profit/(loss) before tax

1,160

1,248

1,339

Tax (charge)/credit

(390)

(355)

(319)

Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations

841

894

950

Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax

(13)

(2)

0

Profit/(loss) for the period

841

892

950

Attributable to:

Ordinary shareholders

776

830

888

Other owners

60

61

64

Non-controlling interests

(1)

0

3

Notable items

Full year

Full year

Full year

2024E

2025E

2026E

12

12

12

Low

Average

High

Low

Average

High

Low

Average

High

9,870

10,232

10,581

9,750

10,712

11,382

10,047

11,248

12,097

3,100

3,314

3,566

3,145

3,387

3,632

3,191

3,478

3,747

13,266

13,546

13,700

13,382

14,099

14,699

13,794

14,726

15,432

(7,766)

(7,677)

(7,621)

(7,976)

(7,827)

(7,654)

(8,182)

(7,993)

(7,688)

(370)

(279)

(208)

(350)

(260)

(200)

(350)

(250)

(200)

(8,136)

(7,956)

(7,846)

(8,276)

(8,086)

(7,870)

(8,462)

(8,242)

(7,896)

5,294

5,590

5,790

5,369

6,012

6,448

5,756

6,484

7,113

(1,025)

(777)

(697)

(1,328)

(994)

(850)

(1,368)

(1,071)

(914)

4,467

4,813

5,053

4,519

5,018

5,511

4,819

5,413

5,999

(1,497)

(1,355)

(1,214)

(1,603)

(1,403)

(1,130)

(1,756)

(1,520)

(1,205)

3,238

3,458

3,782

3,285

3,615

4,163

3,485

3,893

4,404

(75)

(11)

0

(5)

(0)

0

(5)

(0)

0

3,163

3,447

3,732

3,285

3,615

4,163

3,485

3,893

4,404

2,913

3,201

3,467

3,047

3,367

3,873

3,247

3,644

4,107

240

248

266

240

249

290

240

250

297

(4)

(1)

12

(4)

(1)

12

(4)

(1)

12

Notable items in income

(23)

(4)

0

Net interest income notable items

0

0

0

Non-interest income notable items

(23)

(4)

0

Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items

2,438

2,541

2,600

Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items

773

863

938

Memo: Total income excluding all notable items

3,335

3,404

3,493

Notable items in expenses

0

0

0

Memo: Ulster direct costs

(25)

(25)

(25)

(91)

22

288

0

0

0

(91)

22

288

9,870

10,232

10,581

3,100

3,292

3,474

13,226

13,524

13,700

0

0

0

(100)

(94)

(75)

(90)

(11)

0

(65)

(8)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

(90)

(11)

0

(65)

(8)

0

9,750

10,712

11,382

10,047

11,248

12,097

3,145

3,398

3,632

3,191

3,486

3,747

13,382

14,110

14,699

13,794

14,734

15,432

0

0

0

0

0

0

(100)

(38)

0

0

0

0

3

NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low)

Models as at 20 March 2024

Quarter

Q1'24

Analysts included in consensus

9

Group balance sheet and capital, £bn

Low

Average

High

Net loans to customers (amortised cost)

379.0

382.1

384.1

Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs)

509.4

523.6

528.6

Total assets

686.6

697.4

714.8

Customer deposits

410.5

422.2

435.3

Customer deposits across the 3 business segments*

398.5

410.9

423.0

Risk-weighted assets

183.1

184.5

186.3

Tangible equity

24.7

25.4

26.4

Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE)

25.2

25.6

26.0

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end

8,668

8,720

8,792

Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average

8,727

8,786

9,039

Key metrics and ratios

Group net interest margin

1.92%

1.97%

2.02%

Cost:income ratio

54.2%

55.7%

57.2%

Loan impairment rate

0.16%

0.20%

0.26%

Return on tangible equity

11.8%

12.9%

14.1%

Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p)

8.9p

9.4p

10.1p

Ordinary DPS (p)

--

--

--

On-market buybacks (£m)

-

-

-

Directed buy-backs (£m)

-

-

-

Total buy-backs (£m)

-

-

-

Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p)

283p

292p

304p

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio - transitional basis

13.3%

13.5%

13.7%

Interest rate expectations

UK base rate (end of period)

5.25%

5.25%

5.25%

UK base rate (average for the period)

5.25%

5.25%

5.25%

Full year

2024E

12

Low Average High

386.5 388.5 391.3

510.1 526.6 533.4

689.3 702.3 734.3

  1. 433.3 440.5

409.4 418.7 427.9

  1. 189.5 192.8

25.1

26.4

27.7

25.1

25.8

26.5

8,152

8,249

8,337

8,365

8,507

8,688

1.86%

1.94%

2.00%

55.6%

56.7%

58.1%

0.18%

0.20%

0.27%

11.2%

12.3%

13.4%

34.2p

37.6p

41.4p

14.0p

15.9p

18.0p

-

266

750

  1. 969 1,099
  1. 1,235 1,650
    306p 320p 337p

13.0%

13.3%

13.8%

3.75%

4.40%

4.75%

4.60%

4.92%

5.13%

Full year

2025E

12

Low Average High

393.5 398.4 404.4

510.6 533.4 545.3

687.4 713.4 756.1

  1. 438.6 448.8

411.3 424.4 434.9

  1. 199.3 201.9

26.1

27.8

28.9

25.6

27.1

28.3

7,640

7,854

8,251

7,815

8,045

8,280

1.79%

2.01%

2.14%

53.9%

55.5%

58.0%

0.21%

0.25%

0.34%

11.3%

12.4%

14.3%

37.1p

41.8p

49.6p

15.8p

17.2p

19.0p

-

309

1,400

  • 788 1,000
    500 1,006 1,400
    335p 354p 377p

12.8%

13.1%

13.3%

2.50%

3.45%

4.03%

3.32%

3.87%

4.38%

Full year

2026E

12

Low Average High

400.5 408.4 418.1

516.9 541.9 559.3

684.8 723.4 778.7

  1. 445.4 457.8

413.0 432.4 444.7

  1. 204.5 207.5

27.1

29.4

30.3

26.6

28.6

29.8

7,033

7,493

8,007

7,232

7,667

8,129

1.81%

2.08%

2.29%

52.0%

54.3%

57.1%

0.23%

0.26%

0.34%

11.3%

12.7%

14.3%

40.5p

47.5p

56.8p

16.5p

19.0p

21.1p

-

477

1,300

  • 659 1,000
    500 1,041 1,500
    367p 393p 419p

12.9%

13.3%

13.7%

2.50%

3.29%

4.00%

2.50%

3.32%

4.00%

*Customer deposits across the 3 businesses reflect Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional deposits. Group customer deposits also include Ulster Bank RoI and Treasury.

4

NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates

Models as at 20 March 2024

Disclaimer

The consensus information has been calculated using average estimates received from research analysts.

The opinions, estimates, forecasts and recommendations, and the consensus information derived there from, are those of the analysts alone and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of NatWest or its management.

By presenting the consensus information, NatWest does not endorse or concur with any of such analysts' opinions, estimates, forecasts or recommendations. NatWest has not verified any of the information it has received and none of NatWest, its affiliates or their respective directors, officers and employees make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to, or accept any responsibility for, the accuracy or completeness of the consensus information or otherwise endorse or concur with any of the consensus information.

NatWest does not assume any responsibility to update, revise or supplement any information. This consensus summary is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to, nor does it, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments.

The NatWest Group Investor Relations Team

Claire Kane

Director of Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7929 803 009

Claire.Kane@natwest.com

Nick Gough

Head of Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7929 383 731

Nick.Gough@natwest.com

Paul Pybus

Head of Debt Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7769 161 183

Paul.Pybus@natwest.com

Oliver Sherman

Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7825 921 601

Oliver.Sherman@natwest.com

Andrew MacLean

Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7595 248 887

Andrew.MacLean@natwest.com

Farida Abbasova

Equity Investor Relations

+44 (0) 7542 313 896

Farida.Abbasova@natwest.com

5

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Natwest Group plc published this content on 20 March 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 20 March 2024 14:42:01 UTC.