Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates
NatWest Group Investor Relations
20 March 2024
NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates (Average)
Models as at 20 March 2024
Quarter | Full year | |||||
Q4'23 | Q1'24E | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
Quarter | Full year |
Q4'23 Q1'24E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Analysts included in consensus | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | |||
NatWest Group | |||||||
Group income statement, £m | |||||||
Net interest income | 2,638 | 2,541 | 11,049 | 10,232 | 10,712 | 11,248 | |
Non-interest income | 899 | 860 | 3,703 | 3,314 | 3,387 | 3,478 | |
Total income | 3,537 | 3,400 | 14,752 | 13,546 | 14,099 | 14,726 | |
Other operating expenses | (2,041) | (1,894) | (7,641) | (7,677) | (7,827) | (7,993) | |
Litigaton and conduct | (113) | (67) | (355) | (279) | (260) | (250) | |
Operating expenses | (2,154) | (1,961) | (7,996) | (7,956) | (8,086) | (8,242) | |
Operating profit before impairment losses | 1,383 | 1,439 | 6,756 | 5,590 | 6,012 | 6,484 | |
Impairment losses | (126) | (191) | (578) | (777) | (994) | (1,071) | |
Operating profit/(loss) before tax | 1,257 | 1,248 | 6,178 | 4,813 | 5,018 | 5,413 | |
Tax (charge)/credit | 5 | (355) | (1,434) | (1,355) | (1,403) | (1,520) | |
Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations | 1,262 | 894 | 4,744 | 3,458 | 3,615 | 3,893 | |
Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax | 26 | (2) | (112) | (11) | (0) | (0) | |
Profit/(loss) for the period | 1,288 | 892 | 4,632 | 3,447 | 3,615 | 3,893 | |
Attributable to: | |||||||
Ordinary shareholders | 1,229 | 830 | 4,394 | 3,201 | 3,367 | 3,644 | |
Other owners | 60 | 61 | 242 | 248 | 249 | 250 | |
Non-controlling interests | (1) | 0 | (4) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
Notable items | |||||||
Notable items in income | 95 | (4) | 413 | 22 | (11) | (8) | |
Net interest income notable items | (32) | 0 | (32) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Non-interest income notable items | 127 | (4) | 445 | 22 | (11) | (8) | |
Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items | 2,670 | 2,541 | 11,081 | 10,232 | 10,712 | 11,248 | |
Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items | 772 | 863 | 3,258 | 3,292 | 3,398 | 3,486 | |
Memo: Total income excluding all notable items | 3,442 | 3,404 | 14,339 | 13,524 | 14,110 | 14,734 | |
Notable items in expenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Memo: Ulster direct costs | (69) | (25) | (275) | (94) | (38) | 0 |
Analysts included in consensus | 9 | |
Group balance sheet and capital, £bn | ||
Net loans to customers (amortised cost) | 381.4 | 382.1 |
Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs) | 524.7 | 523.6 |
Total assets | 692.7 | 697.4 |
Customer deposits | 431.4 | 422.2 |
Customer deposits across the 3 business segments* | 419.1 | 410.9 |
Risk-weighted assets | 183.0 | 184.5 |
Tangible equity | 25.7 | 25.4 |
Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE) | 24.4 | 25.6 |
Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end | 8,792 | 8,720 |
Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average | 8,816 | 8,786 |
Key metrics and ratios | ||
Group net interest margin | 1.99% | 1.97% |
Cost:income ratio | 57.7% | 55.7% |
Loan impairment rate | 0.13% | 0.20% |
Return on tangible equity | 20.1% | 12.9% |
Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p) | 20.5p | 9.4p |
Ordinary DPS (p) | 11.5p | -- |
On-market buybacks (£m) | 300 | - |
Directed buy-backs (£m) | - | - |
Total buy-backs (£m) | 300 | - |
Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p) | 292p | 292p |
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio - transitional basis | 13.4% | 13.5% |
Interest rate expectations | ||
UK base rate (end of period) | 5.25% | 5.25% |
UK base rate (average for the period) | 5.25% | 5.25% |
12 | 12 | 12 | |
381.4 | 388.5 | 398.4 | 408.4 |
520.6 | 526.6 | 533.4 | 541.9 |
692.7 | 702.3 | 713.4 | 723.4 |
431.4 | 433.3 | 438.6 | 445.4 |
419.1 | 418.7 | 424.4 | 432.4 |
183.0 | 189.5 | 199.3 | 204.5 |
25.7 | 26.4 | 27.8 | 29.4 |
24.7 | 25.8 | 27.1 | 28.6 |
8,792 | 8,249 | 7,854 | 7,493 |
9,164 | 8,507 | 8,045 | 7,667 |
2.12% | 1.94% | 2.01% | 2.08% |
51.8% | 56.7% | 55.5% | 54.3% |
0.15% | 0.20% | 0.25% | 0.26% |
17.8% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 12.7% |
47.9p | 37.6p | 41.8p | 47.5p |
17.0p | 15.9p | 17.2p | 19.0p |
800 | 266 | 309 | 477 |
1,259 | 969 | 788 | 659 |
2,059 | 1,235 | 1,006 | 1,041 |
292p | 320p | 354p | 393p |
13.4% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 13.3% |
5.25% | 4.40% | 3.45% | 3.29% |
4.69% | 4.92% | 3.87% | 3.32% |
*Customer deposits across the 3 businesses reflect Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional deposits. Group customer deposits also include Ulster Bank RoI and Treasury. | 2 |
NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low)
Models as at 20 March 2024
Quarter | |||
Q1'24 | |||
Analysts included in consensus | 9 | ||
NatWest Group | Low | Average | High |
Group income statement, £m | |||
Net interest income | 2,438 | 2,541 | 2,600 |
Non-interest income | 773 | 860 | 938 |
Total income | 3,335 | 3,400 | 3,493 |
Other operating expenses | (1,927) | (1,894) | (1,820) |
Litigaton and conduct | (93) | (67) | (50) |
Operating expenses | (1,999) | (1,961) | (1,882) |
Operating profit before impairment losses | 1,362 | 1,439 | 1,521 |
Impairment losses | (253) | (191) | (152) |
Operating profit/(loss) before tax | 1,160 | 1,248 | 1,339 |
Tax (charge)/credit | (390) | (355) | (319) |
Profit/(loss) for the period for continuing operations | 841 | 894 | 950 |
Profit/(loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax | (13) | (2) | 0 |
Profit/(loss) for the period | 841 | 892 | 950 |
Attributable to: | |||
Ordinary shareholders | 776 | 830 | 888 |
Other owners | 60 | 61 | 64 |
Non-controlling interests | (1) | 0 | 3 |
Notable items |
Full year | Full year | Full year | ||||||||
2024E | 2025E | 2026E | ||||||||
12 | 12 | 12 | ||||||||
Low | Average | High | Low | Average | High | Low | Average | High | ||
9,870 | 10,232 | 10,581 | 9,750 | 10,712 | 11,382 | 10,047 | 11,248 | 12,097 | ||
3,100 | 3,314 | 3,566 | 3,145 | 3,387 | 3,632 | 3,191 | 3,478 | 3,747 | ||
13,266 | 13,546 | 13,700 | 13,382 | 14,099 | 14,699 | 13,794 | 14,726 | 15,432 | ||
(7,766) | (7,677) | (7,621) | (7,976) | (7,827) | (7,654) | (8,182) | (7,993) | (7,688) | ||
(370) | (279) | (208) | (350) | (260) | (200) | (350) | (250) | (200) | ||
(8,136) | (7,956) | (7,846) | (8,276) | (8,086) | (7,870) | (8,462) | (8,242) | (7,896) | ||
5,294 | 5,590 | 5,790 | 5,369 | 6,012 | 6,448 | 5,756 | 6,484 | 7,113 | ||
(1,025) | (777) | (697) | (1,328) | (994) | (850) | (1,368) | (1,071) | (914) | ||
4,467 | 4,813 | 5,053 | 4,519 | 5,018 | 5,511 | 4,819 | 5,413 | 5,999 | ||
(1,497) | (1,355) | (1,214) | (1,603) | (1,403) | (1,130) | (1,756) | (1,520) | (1,205) | ||
3,238 | 3,458 | 3,782 | 3,285 | 3,615 | 4,163 | 3,485 | 3,893 | 4,404 | ||
(75) | (11) | 0 | (5) | (0) | 0 | (5) | (0) | 0 | ||
3,163 | 3,447 | 3,732 | 3,285 | 3,615 | 4,163 | 3,485 | 3,893 | 4,404 | ||
2,913 | 3,201 | 3,467 | 3,047 | 3,367 | 3,873 | 3,247 | 3,644 | 4,107 | ||
240 | 248 | 266 | 240 | 249 | 290 | 240 | 250 | 297 | ||
(4) | (1) | 12 | (4) | (1) | 12 | (4) | (1) | 12 | ||
Notable items in income | (23) | (4) | 0 |
Net interest income notable items | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Non-interest income notable items | (23) | (4) | 0 |
Memo: Net interest income excluding notable items | 2,438 | 2,541 | 2,600 |
Memo: Non-interest income excluding notable items | 773 | 863 | 938 |
Memo: Total income excluding all notable items | 3,335 | 3,404 | 3,493 |
Notable items in expenses | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Memo: Ulster direct costs | (25) | (25) | (25) |
(91) | 22 | 288 |
0 | 0 | 0 |
(91) | 22 | 288 |
9,870 | 10,232 | 10,581 |
3,100 | 3,292 | 3,474 |
13,226 | 13,524 | 13,700 |
0 | 0 | 0 |
(100) | (94) | (75) |
(90) | (11) | 0 | (65) | (8) | 0 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(90) | (11) | 0 | (65) | (8) | 0 | |
9,750 | 10,712 | 11,382 | 10,047 | 11,248 | 12,097 | |
3,145 | 3,398 | 3,632 | 3,191 | 3,486 | 3,747 | |
13,382 | 14,110 | 14,699 | 13,794 | 14,734 | 15,432 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(100) | (38) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates (High & Low)
Models as at 20 March 2024
Quarter | |||
Q1'24 | |||
Analysts included in consensus | 9 | ||
Group balance sheet and capital, £bn | Low | Average | High |
Net loans to customers (amortised cost) | 379.0 | 382.1 | 384.1 |
Group average interest-earning assets (AIEAs) | 509.4 | 523.6 | 528.6 |
Total assets | 686.6 | 697.4 | 714.8 |
Customer deposits | 410.5 | 422.2 | 435.3 |
Customer deposits across the 3 business segments* | 398.5 | 410.9 | 423.0 |
Risk-weighted assets | 183.1 | 184.5 | 186.3 |
Tangible equity | 24.7 | 25.4 | 26.4 |
Average tangible equity (denominator for RoTE) | 25.2 | 25.6 | 26.0 |
Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - period end | 8,668 | 8,720 | 8,792 |
Number of ordinary shares in issue (m) - average | 8,727 | 8,786 | 9,039 |
Key metrics and ratios | |||
Group net interest margin | 1.92% | 1.97% | 2.02% |
Cost:income ratio | 54.2% | 55.7% | 57.2% |
Loan impairment rate | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.26% |
Return on tangible equity | 11.8% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
Earnings/(loss) per ordinary share (p) | 8.9p | 9.4p | 10.1p |
Ordinary DPS (p) | -- | -- | -- |
On-market buybacks (£m) | - | - | - |
Directed buy-backs (£m) | - | - | - |
Total buy-backs (£m) | - | - | - |
Tangible net asset value (TNAV) per ordinary share (p) | 283p | 292p | 304p |
Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio - transitional basis | 13.3% | 13.5% | 13.7% |
Interest rate expectations | |||
UK base rate (end of period) | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
UK base rate (average for the period) | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% |
Full year
2024E
12
Low Average High
386.5 388.5 391.3
510.1 526.6 533.4
689.3 702.3 734.3
- 433.3 440.5
409.4 418.7 427.9
- 189.5 192.8
25.1 | 26.4 | 27.7 |
25.1 | 25.8 | 26.5 |
8,152 | 8,249 | 8,337 |
8,365 | 8,507 | 8,688 |
1.86% | 1.94% | 2.00% |
55.6% | 56.7% | 58.1% |
0.18% | 0.20% | 0.27% |
11.2% | 12.3% | 13.4% |
34.2p | 37.6p | 41.4p |
14.0p | 15.9p | 18.0p |
- | 266 | 750 |
- 969 1,099
-
1,235 1,650
306p 320p 337p
13.0% | 13.3% | 13.8% |
3.75% | 4.40% | 4.75% |
4.60% | 4.92% | 5.13% |
Full year
2025E
12
Low Average High
393.5 398.4 404.4
510.6 533.4 545.3
687.4 713.4 756.1
- 438.6 448.8
411.3 424.4 434.9
- 199.3 201.9
26.1 | 27.8 | 28.9 |
25.6 | 27.1 | 28.3 |
7,640 | 7,854 | 8,251 |
7,815 | 8,045 | 8,280 |
1.79% | 2.01% | 2.14% |
53.9% | 55.5% | 58.0% |
0.21% | 0.25% | 0.34% |
11.3% | 12.4% | 14.3% |
37.1p | 41.8p | 49.6p |
15.8p | 17.2p | 19.0p |
- | 309 | 1,400 |
- 788 1,000
500 1,006 1,400
335p 354p 377p
12.8% | 13.1% | 13.3% |
2.50% | 3.45% | 4.03% |
3.32% | 3.87% | 4.38% |
Full year
2026E
12
Low Average High
400.5 408.4 418.1
516.9 541.9 559.3
684.8 723.4 778.7
- 445.4 457.8
413.0 432.4 444.7
- 204.5 207.5
27.1 | 29.4 | 30.3 |
26.6 | 28.6 | 29.8 |
7,033 | 7,493 | 8,007 |
7,232 | 7,667 | 8,129 |
1.81% | 2.08% | 2.29% |
52.0% | 54.3% | 57.1% |
0.23% | 0.26% | 0.34% |
11.3% | 12.7% | 14.3% |
40.5p | 47.5p | 56.8p |
16.5p | 19.0p | 21.1p |
- | 477 | 1,300 |
- 659 1,000
500 1,041 1,500
367p 393p 419p
12.9% | 13.3% | 13.7% |
2.50% | 3.29% | 4.00% |
2.50% | 3.32% | 4.00% |
*Customer deposits across the 3 businesses reflect Retail Banking, Private Banking and Commercial and Institutional deposits. Group customer deposits also include Ulster Bank RoI and Treasury. | 4 |
NatWest Group - Q1 2024 Consensus Financial Estimates
Models as at 20 March 2024
Disclaimer
The consensus information has been calculated using average estimates received from research analysts.
The opinions, estimates, forecasts and recommendations, and the consensus information derived there from, are those of the analysts alone and do not represent opinions, estimates or forecasts of NatWest or its management.
By presenting the consensus information, NatWest does not endorse or concur with any of such analysts' opinions, estimates, forecasts or recommendations. NatWest has not verified any of the information it has received and none of NatWest, its affiliates or their respective directors, officers and employees make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to, or accept any responsibility for, the accuracy or completeness of the consensus information or otherwise endorse or concur with any of the consensus information.
NatWest does not assume any responsibility to update, revise or supplement any information. This consensus summary is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to, nor does it, constitute investment advice or any solicitation to buy, hold or sell securities or other financial instruments.
The NatWest Group Investor Relations Team
Claire Kane | Director of Investor Relations | +44 (0) 7929 803 009 | Claire.Kane@natwest.com |
Nick Gough | Head of Equity Investor Relations | +44 (0) 7929 383 731 | Nick.Gough@natwest.com |
Paul Pybus | Head of Debt Investor Relations | +44 (0) 7769 161 183 | Paul.Pybus@natwest.com |
Oliver Sherman | Equity Investor Relations | +44 (0) 7825 921 601 | Oliver.Sherman@natwest.com |
Andrew MacLean | Equity Investor Relations | +44 (0) 7595 248 887 | Andrew.MacLean@natwest.com |
Farida Abbasova | Equity Investor Relations | +44 (0) 7542 313 896 | Farida.Abbasova@natwest.com |
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Natwest Group plc published this content on 20 March 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 20 March 2024 14:42:01 UTC.