NuVista Energy : Q1 2024 MD&A

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS

For the three months ended March 31, 2024

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

Management's discussion and analysis ("MD&A") of financial conditions and results of operations should be read in conjunction with NuVista Energy Ltd.'s ("NuVista" or the "Company") condensed consolidated interim financial statements (the "financial statements") for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and audited statements for the years ended December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, together with the notes related thereto, for a full understanding of the financial position and results of operations of the Company. The following MD&A was prepared as at and is dated May 7, 2024. Our December 31, 2023 audited financial statements, Annual Information Form and other disclosure documents are available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.caor can be obtained at www.nuvistaenergy.com.

Throughout this MD&A and in other materials disclosed by the Company, NuVista adheres to generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"), however the Company also uses various specified financial measures (as defined in National Instrument 52-112 - Non-GAAPand Other Financial Measures ("NI 52-112")) including "non-GAAP financial measures", "non-GAAP ratios", "capital management measures" and "supplementary financial measures" to analyze financial performance including, "adjusted funds flow", "annualized current quarter adjusted funds flow", "capital expenditures", "net capital expenditures", "free adjusted funds flow", "netbacks", "cash costs", "net debt", "netbacks per Boe", "cash costs per Boe", "net operating expense", "net operating expense per Boe" and "adjusted funds flow per boe". For further information, refer to the section "Specified Financial Measures".

These specified financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. The specified financial measures should not be considered to be more meaningful than GAAP measures which are determined in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards, such as net earnings, cash provided by operating activities, and cash used in investing activities, as indicators of NuVista's performance.

This MD&A contains forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Such forward-looking information is based upon certain expectations and assumptions and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. For further information regarding the forward-looking information contained herein, including the assumptions underlying such forward-looking information, refer to "Forward-looking Information and Statements" in the advisories section.

All Boe amounts as presented in this MD&A have been calculated using the conversion of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil (6 Mcf = 1 Bbl). Natural gas liquids ("NGLs") are defined by National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101") to include ethane, butane, propane, pentanes plus and condensate. Unless explicitly stated in this MD&A, references to NGLs refers only to ethane, butane and propane and references to condensate refers only to condensate and pentanes plus. NuVista has disclosed condensate and pentanes plus separately from ethane, butane and propane, as NuVista believes it provides a more accurate description of NuVista's operations and results therefrom.

FINANCIAL AND OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS

Three months ended March 31

1. Non-GAAPfinancial measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
2. Non-GAAPratio that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
3. Capital management measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
4. Natural gas liquids ("NGLs") include butane, propane and ethane revenue and sales volumes, and sulphur revenue.
5. Product prices exclude realized gains/losses on financial derivatives.
6. Supplementary financial measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".

ABOUT NUVISTA ENERGY LTD.

NuVista is an exploration and production company actively engaged in the development, delineation and production of condensate, NGLs, and natural gas reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. NuVista's focus is on the scalable and repeatable condensate rich Montney formation in the Pipestone and Wapiti areas of the Alberta Deep Basin ("Montney"). The common shares of NuVista trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") under the symbol NVA.

FIRST QUARTER 2024 HIGHLIGHTS

• Adjusted funds flow - During the first quarter of 2024, NuVista generated adjusted funds flow of $135.4 million, a 35% decrease as compared to the same prior year period of $207.5 million. The decrease in adjusted funds flow was primarily due to lower petroleum and natural gas prices, net of realized losses on financial derivative contracts, partially offset by the impact of higher production volumes. Similarly, adjusted funds flow for the first quarter of 2024, decreased 33% from $202.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower petroleum and natural gas prices, net of realized gains and losses on financial derivative contracts, in addition to the impact of lower production volumes.
• Liquidity - On May 7, 2024, NuVista amended and renewed its existing covenant based credit facility of $450.0 million provided by its syndicate of Canadian financial institutions to a maturity date of May 7, 2027. NuVista exited the first quarter of 2024 with $52.4 million drawn on its $450 million covenant-based credit facility. NuVista's net debt to first quarter adjusted fund flow ratio at March 31, 2024 was 0.5:1. At March 31, 2024, the remaining face value of the 2026 Notes was $165.4 million, with a carrying value of $162.6 million. NuVista's net debt at March 31, 2024 was $261.2 million, a 42% increase from $183.6 million as at December 31, 2023, but well below its net debt soft ceiling of approximately $350 million. This net debt soft ceiling corresponds to a net debt to adjusted funds flow ratio of less than 1.0x even in a stress test commodity price environment ($US 45/Bbl WTI oil and $US 2.00/MMBtu NYMEX natural gas).
• Production - Production in the first quarter of 2024 averaged 80,042 Boe/d, which was at the top-end of the first quarter guidance range of 77,000 - 80,000 Boe/d. This represented a 12% increase compared to 71,209 Boe/d in the same period of 2023, and a 7% decrease compared to 85,924 Boe/d in the fourth quarter of 2023. Production from 9 new wells brought online later in the first quarter was offset by natural declines and the temporary shut-in of existing production for planned completion activities. The production composition for the first quarter of 2024 was 30% condensate, 9% NGLs and 61% natural gas.
• Pricing - Commodity prices experienced a decline throughout the first quarter of 2024, compared to the first and fourth quarters of 2023. The decline in benchmark crude oil prices was influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, growing supply, and concerns about oil demand growth. Similarly, the decrease in natural gas prices was primarily due to lower demand as a result of mild winter weather and higher production in Canada and the United States resulting in higher than seasonal storage levels.
• • Realized condensate pricing for the first quarter of 2024 averaged $95.10/Bbl, a 4% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 at $99.20/Bbl and a 6% decrease compared to the same period of 2023 at $101.31/Bbl.
  • Realized natural gas pricing in the first quarter of 2024 averaged $3.08/Mcf, an 11% decrease as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 at $3.45/Mcf and a 56% decrease as compared to the same period of 2023 at $7.02/Mcf.
  • Realized NGL pricing for the first quarter of 2024 averaged $27.23/Bbl, a 16% decrease as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 at $32.46/Bbl and 31% lower than the same period of 2023 at $39.30/ Bbl.
• Net operating expense - For the first quarter of 2024, NuVista's net operating expense on a per Boe basis was $11.51/Boe, a 2% decrease over the same period of 2023 at $11.71/Boe, largely due to economies of scale associated with increasing facility capacity utilization through production growth. In comparison, net operating expense on a per Boe basis for the first quarter of 2024 was 8% higher than the fourth quarter of 2024, as a result of fixed costs being spread across a lower number of producing barrels of oil equivalent.

• Corporate netback - The corporate netback for the first quarter of 2024 was $18.58/Boe, inclusive of a $0.18/ Boe realized loss on financial derivatives. The corporate netback for the first quarter of 2024 was 43% lower than the first quarter of 2023 and 27% lower than the fourth quarter of 2023, largely due to weaker commodity prices.
• Capital expenditures, net capital expenditures and power generation expenditures - Capital expenditures (and net capital expenditures) were $187.9 million in the first quarter of 2024, of which 69% was allocated to drilling and completion related activities, resulting in 9 (9.0 net) wells drilled and 18 (18.0 net) wells completed. Additionally, during the three months ended March 31, 2024, power generation expenditures were $1.7 million. These funds were invested in the cogeneration unit at our Wembley Gas Plant in the Pipestone North area, which was commissioned in December 2023.
• Return of capital to shareholders - In the first quarter of 2024, NuVista repurchased and subsequently cancelled 1,345,000 common shares under its normal course issuer bid ("NCIB") at a weighted average price of $11.25/share for a total cost of $15.1 million. Since the inception of its NCIB programs, NuVista has repurchased and subsequently cancelled 30,127,161 common shares at a weighted average price of $11.83/ share for a total cost of $356.3 million.

ENVIRONMENT, SOCIAL & GOVERNANCE ("ESG")

In September 2023, NuVista proudly released its 2022 ESG Report, highlighting the achievement of specific targets and the ongoing advancement of projects that support its commitment to ongoing ESG objectives. The 2022 ESG Report is available and can be accessed on NuVista's website at www.nuvistaenergy.com.The preparation of our 2023 ESG Report is currently in progress and will be released later this year.

Environment

Late in 2023, the construction of the Wembley Gas Plant cogeneration unit was completed, and the facility is now fully operational with the gas plant utilizing recovered heat. This project aligns with NuVista's environmental goals, as the cogeneration unit is expected to contribute to a reduction in the Company's carbon emissions. NuVista is also actively exploring other initiatives aimed at improving emission performance and enhancing energy efficiency, while actively monitoring regulatory developments. More details on NuVista's emissions reduction efforts can be found within the 2022 ESG Report, in addition to the annual submissions to the Carbon Disclosure Project, from which a B score was achieved for the 2022 reporting year.

In its commitment to responsible water management, NuVista consistently pursues solutions that shift water consumption towards lower-quality sources. Over the past two years, the Company has made significant progress by reducing non-saline (fresh) water consumption through the utilization of alternative (lower quality) sources, such as municipal wastewater and deep aquifers.

NuVista continues to make significant progress on the responsible abandonment and reclamation of inactive wells and facilities in legacy areas. In the first quarter of 2024, the Company spent $6.5 million on abandonment and reclamation work. This asset retirement spending resulted in the final abandonment of 8 inactive wells. Numerous environmental remediation and reclamation projects were also undertaken and will continue throughout the year.

Social

Safety

NuVista is committed to safeguarding the health and safety of its workers and the public while minimizing its impact on the environment. The Company consistently strives toward a goal of zero injuries for both its employees and third-party contractors working on its sites. A primary focus for NuVista is the management of Lost Time Injuries ("LTI") and high-potentialnear-miss incidents. These near-miss incidents, though not resulting in serious harm, are events that could have led to adverse outcomes under slightly different conditions.

NuVista integrates Energy Safety Canada's 10 Life Saving Rules into its operations, considering them essential tools in preventing the most common causes of fatalities and serious injuries within the industry. NuVista is also

proactive in engaging with its contractors in the implementation of their safety policies and procedures, with a specific emphasis on the effective management of short-service workers.

Community

NuVista, driven by its commitment to investing in its people and the communities it operates in, maintains a core emphasis on giving back. Actively seeking opportunities to make a positive impact locally, NuVista places special importance on cultivating robust relationships with Indigenous communities, guided by the four pillars of its Indigenous Inclusion Guiding Principles. Cultural awareness is a significant aspect of NuVista's approach to Indigenous engagement, with multiple events held annually and formal training provided to most employees. Additionally, the team participates in training programs offered by the communities they consult with, fostering a better understanding of the history, experiences, and diverse cultures of Indigenous Peoples in Canada.

Governance

Governance plays a key role in providing leadership at NuVista. The Corporate Governance & Compensation and ESG Committees are instrumental in overseeing the Company's policies and programs, ensuring that Management remains committed to upholding these fundamental principles. These principles establish a robust framework for both field and head office staff, guiding their operations with a strong focus on safety and environmental consciousness.

We look forward to providing a full update on our 2023 ESG performance and progress when we release our 2023 ESG report later this year.

2024 GUIDANCE UPDATE

NuVista continues to execute according to its plans, with well and facility outperformance in several areas. Weekly production has reached a new record of 88,000 Boe/d, completion activities as well as planned third party and Company operated infrastructure expansion projects will cause production outages through the second quarter. The production impact to the second quarter is expected to be approximately 6,500 Boe/d. Second quarter production guidance has therefore been set at 80,000 - 83,000 Boe/d. We continue to expect monthly volumes to reach over 90,000 Boe/d at some point in the second half of 2024.

Our outlook for the full year of 2024 still anticipates excellent well economics with sub one-year payouts, and significant free adjusted funds flow despite the temporary reduction in natural gas prices. As our adjusted funds flow is primarily driven by condensate pricing, we are making no changes to our capital plans at this time, which allow us to maintain the efficiencies of steady 2-drill-rig execution. We re-affirm our 2024 full year production and capital expenditure guidance ranges of 83,000 - 87,000 Boe/d and $500 million, respectively.

We intend to continue our track record of carefully directing free adjusted funds flow towards a prudent balance of capital return to shareholders and debt reduction, while investing in high return growth projects. NuVista's top quality asset base, deep inventory, and management's relentless focus on value maximization has surfaced the opportunity to grow beyond existing midstream commitments, so advanced planning towards 115,000 Boe/d is currently underway. We will continue to closely monitor and adjust to the environment in order to maximize the value of our asset base and ensure the long-term sustainability of our business.

CONSOLIDATED RESULTS

Net earnings

Three months ended March 31

For the three months ended March 31, 2024, net earnings decreased $44.9 million to $35.8 million ($0.17/share) from first quarter 2023 earnings of $80.7 million ($0.37/share), due primarily to a $72.1 million decrease in adjusted funds flow, a $13.6 million decrease in gains on dispositions, and an $8.0 million increase in depletion, depreciation and amortization expense, partially offset by a $31.8 million decrease in unrealized losses on financial derivative contracts, and a $14.7 million decrease in the total tax expense.

Before taxes and unrealized gains (losses) on financial derivatives, net earnings was $70.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to net earnings of $161.6 million for the prior year comparative period. The unrealized mark-to-market values are a function of commodity prices and as a result, fluctuate from period to period. The financial derivatives contracts are in place to provide greater adjusted funds flow stability and certainty in a volatile commodity price environment.

Cash provided by operating activities and adjusted funds flow

The following table is NuVista's cash provided by operating activities and adjusted funds flow for the three months ended March 31:

Three months ended March 31

1. Capital management measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
2. Supplementary financial measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".

For the three months ended March 31, 2024, cash provided by operating activities decreased 31% to $147.9 million ($0.71/share, basic) from $215.2 million ($0.98/share, basic) for the comparable period of 2023, primarily due to a decrease in the average realized selling price and changes in non-cash working capital, partially offset by increased production volumes and lower royalties.

Adjusted funds flow for the three months ended March 31, 2024 decreased 35% to $135.4 million ($0.65/share, basic) from $207.5 million ($0.95/share, basic) for the comparable period of 2023, for similar reasons as noted above.

Free adjusted funds flow

NuVista uses free adjusted funds flow, defined as adjusted funds flow less net capital expenditures, power generation expenditures and asset retirement expenditures, as an indicator of the funds available for additional capital allocation such as the repurchase of common shares or the retirement of debt. For the three months ended March 31, 2024, free adjusted funds flow was negative at $60.6 million, compared to positive $27.9 million in the prior year comparative period. The temporary decrease in free adjusted funds flow was largely due the decrease

in the commodity price environment, the phasing of NuVista's heavier winter capital development program and the timing of new well production.

Three months ended March 31

1. Capital management measure. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
2. Non-GAAPfinancial measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".

Operating netback, corporate netback and cash costs

The table below summarizes operating netback and corporate netback on a per Boe basis for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023:

Three months ended March 31

1. For the three months ended March 31, 2024, includes a price risk management gain of $0.91/Boe (2023 - loss of $0.72/Boe) on physical delivery sales contracts.
2. Non-GAAPratio that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
3. Excludes accretion expense.

Quarterly corporate netback

The table below summarizes cash costs on a per Boe basis for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023:

Three months ended March 31

1. Non-GAAPratio that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section entitled "Specified Financial Measures".
2. Excludes accretion expense.

OPERATING RESULTS

Operations activity

Three months ended March 31

1. Based on rig release date.
2. Based on frac end date.
3. Based on first production date of in-line test or on production and tied-in to permanent facilities.

For the three months ended March 31, 2024, NuVista drilled 9 (9.0 net) wells compared to 12 (11.7 net) wells in the comparable period of 2023. In addition, 18 (18.0 net) wells were completed with 9 (9.0 net) wells brought online throughout the first quarter.

Production

Three months ended March 31

1. Production represents the average daily production for the applicable period.
2. Product weighting is based on total production.

Production volumes for the first quarter of 2024 averaged 80,042 Boe/d, a 7% decrease compared to an average of 85,924 Boe/d for the fourth quarter of 2023. Production from 9 new wells brought online late in the first quarter was offset by natural declines and the temporary shut-in of existing production for planned completion activities.

Production for the first quarter of 2024 averaged 80,042 Boe/d, a 12% increase compared to an average of 71,209 Boe/d for the same period of 2023. This increase was primarily due to new well production and optimization of existing production offsetting natural production declines.

Condensate volume weighting for the first three months of 2024 was 30% compared to 32% in same prior year period.

Average Daily Production

Pricing

Three months ended March 31

1. Prices exclude price risk management realized and unrealized gains and losses on financial derivative commodity contracts but includes gains and losses on physical sale contracts and natural gas price diversification.
2. Condensate and NGLs selling price is net of fractionation fees and excludes pipeline tariffs which is within transportation expense.
3. NGLs include butane, propane and ethane revenue and sales volumes, and sulphur revenue.
4. Sulphur revenue (expense) for the three months ended March 31, 2024 was $(1.0) million (2023 - $2.1 million).

WTI benchmark averaged US$76.96/Bbl in the first quarter of 2024, a slight increase from the first quarter of 2023 and 2% lower than the fourth quarter of 2023, which averaged US$78.32/Bbl. The OPEC oil cuts made in 2023 have been extended on a monthly basis and are expected to continue until the summer. Total U.S. production has continued to grow at a moderate pace as shale producers show discipline in their capital programs. Consumption in China has largely recovered to 2019 levels, but growth has been moderate, with some economic uncertainty. Concerns about a potential recession, at least in the U.S., seems to be dissipating and European demand has stabilized. The U.S. has begun to refill the strategic petroleum reserves but at a very slow pace. The continued Russia Ukraine war coupled with conflicts in the Middle East have created more uncertainty in the oil markets with potential disruptions to supply.