TOTALENERGIES SE
By Scott DiSavino
Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% to a two-week low on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage
withdrawal and forecasts for demand to drop and output to rise with the weather turning warmer than normal in late January.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 154 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage
during the week ended Jan. 12.
That was smaller than the 164-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a withdrawal of 68 bcf in the
same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 126 bcf.
Also weighing on prices, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants fell this week to a
one-year low as energy firms likely sold some of their gas into the domestic market after extreme cold this week boosted U.S.
power gas prices to multi-year highs in several regions.
The extreme cold also cut gas supplies by freezing wells and increased daily gas demand to a record high on Tuesday.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 13.5 cents, or 4.7%, to $2.735
per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:39 a.m. EST (1539 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since
Jan. 3.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far
in January from a monthly record of 108.0 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, U.S. gas output was on track to jump 7.7 bcfd over the past two days to 98.1 bcfd on Thursday after plunging
by 17.3 bcfd from Jan. 8-16 due primarily to freeze-offs and other cold weather events to a 12-month low of 90.4 bcfd on Tuesday.
That drop was smaller than losses of 19.6 bcfd during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022 and 20.4 bcfd during the February
freeze in 2021.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would switch from colder than normal from Jan. 18-21 to mostly
warmer than normal from Jan. 22-Feb. 2.
With less cold weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 154.1 bcfd
this week to 139.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
On a daily basis, LSEG said total gas demand, including exports, soared to a record 168.2 bcfd on Tuesday. That was higher
than LSEG forecast on Wednesday and topped the prior all-time high of 162.5 bcfd set on Dec. 23, 2022, during Winter Storm
Elliott, according to federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.9 bcfd so far in January from a monthly record of
14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to jump about 4.2 bcfd over the past two days to 13.5 bcfd on Thursday after
dropping by 5.8 bcfd from Jan. 13-16 to a one-year low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to reductions at U.S. energy company
Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas, Freeport LNG's plant in Texas and Cameron LNG's
plant in Louisiana.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jan 12 Jan 5 Jan 12 average
Actual Actual Jan 12
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -154 -140 -68 -126
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,182 3,336 2,832 2,862
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 11.6%
11.2%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub 2.88 2.87 3.42 2.66 3.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 9.06 8.77 19.79 13.04 14.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 9.55 10.03 24.34 14.39 14.31
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 400 410 391 438 443
U.S. GFS CDDs 4 3 3 3 3
U.S. GFS TDDs 404 413 394 441 446
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 106.9 96.9 95.1 101.8 93.8
U.S. Imports from Canada8 9.2 9.4 8.1 9.2 9.3
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
Total U.S. Supply 116.1 106.3 103.2 111.0 103.4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.9 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.7
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.1 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.3
U.S. LNG Exports 14.8 12.5 13.6 12.5 8.9
U.S. Commercial 16.4 22.3 18.6 14.7 16.6
U.S. Residential 27.8 39.3 31.8 24.1 28.6
U.S. Power Plant 34.7 36.4 34.4 29.4 29.5
U.S. Industrial 25.6 27.9 26.3 24.5 25.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.3 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.0 3.6 3.2 3.6 2.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 113.0 134.4 119.1 101.4 108.7
Total U.S. Demand 136.7 154.1 139.9 121.7 125.6
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 81 81 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 80 79 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 81 80 76 103 81
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Jan 19 Jan 12 Jan 5 Dec 29 Dec 22
Wind 11 14 8 11 11
Solar 2 2 2 2 2
Hydro 6 6 6 7 6
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 38 38 42 40 41
Coal 23 19 19 16 18
Nuclear 18 19 20 22 20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 2.86 3.25
Transco Z6 New York 7.30 19.46
PG&E Citygate 3.94 5.33
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.35 2.49
Chicago Citygate 2.96 4.03
Algonquin Citygate 13.19 18.41
SoCal Citygate 3.28 5.79
Waha Hub 2.44 4.14
AECO 1.93 1.64
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 126.50 163.00
PJM West 67.50 132.25
Ercot North 28.25 43.75
Mid C 75.50 300.00
Palo Verde 45.50 53.75
SP-15 46.50 58.00
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
US natgas prices fall 5% on small storage decline, warmer forecasts
January 18, 2024 at 10:40 am EST
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