“The plane is a bit heavy, so give it just a little more power to make a smooth landing,” flight instructor
There was the tiniest of bounces as the plane's nose came down, then a smooth touchdown and taxi in to end Montano's training flight late last year at a
On the ground, Montano was happy with her progress. “You guys were my first real passengers!” she gushed to a reporter and video journalist who had been in the rear seats.
Montano hopes that in a few years she will be flying airline jets and carrying many more passengers. If she does, she'll be helping solve a critical problem facing the industry: not enough pilots.
Airlines have complained about a shortage for several years, but they made it worse during the pandemic by encouraging pilots to take early retirement when air travel collapsed in 2020.
Meanwhile, airlines have been in a hiring frenzy that is likely to continue for several years as the carriers replace pilots who reach the federal mandatory retirement age of 65.
The government estimates that there will be about 18,000 openings per year for airline and commercial pilots this decade, with many of those replacing retirees. However, the
Private forecasts are dire, too. Consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates that despite efforts to close the gap, airlines in
There is cause for hope, however. Last year, the
The key question is whether that pace can be maintained. Some of last year's spurt might have been catch-up from low numbers in 2020 and 2021, which were held down by the pandemic.
“The airlines are doing their best to move things along, but it’s an uphill slog,” Becker said.
“Pilots are and will remain a significant constraint on capacity,” he said during an earnings call last month.
Kirby figures that his airline, American,
The pilot shortage is most severe at smaller carriers that don't pay as well and serve as stepping stones to the big airlines. Many of them operate regional flights under the names of American Eagle,
If a pilot calls in sick, often there is no one immediately available to replace them, and that is leaving tens of thousands of travelers stranded. The lack of pilots contributed to a 52% increase in flight cancellations last year compared with 2021, although it is unclear how much of that was also related to weather and air traffic congestion.
The shortage is giving pilot unions leverage in contract negotiations that were paused by the onset of the pandemic. New contracts are certain to include hefty pay raises that will drive up costs for airlines.
The median annual pay for
The pilot shortage started even before the pandemic. Over the past decade or two, industry officials warned it was coming as travel boomed and thousands of
For decades, airlines enjoyed an ample supply of pilots, most of whom came out of the military fully trained and with extensive experience, but the military has its own shortage.
The
Not everyone agrees, however, that there is a shortage.
The union argues that airlines are hyping a shortage narrative to water down qualification standards and hire inexperienced flyers at lower pay. It says that airlines should increase pay to attract more applicants.
That is beginning to happen at regional airlines — the smaller carriers that handle flights for American Eagle,
Several
“Even though I saw my dad fly planes, saw my brother fly planes, I never saw a woman fly planes,” says
Tuition for flying schools and the cost of flight time are not cheap. Reaching 1,500 hours of required flight time is often estimated to cost between
Aviate charges
Montano, who has two degrees in criminology, left her job analyzing prison-sentencing data and took out a loan to attend Aviate.
“I saw that as a great investment in my future,” she says. “I absolutely think it will pay off.”
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