X5 RETAIL GROUP Investor Presentation
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Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as an advertisement of securities, an offer or invitation to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire or subscribe for securities of X5 Group N.V. or any of its subsidiaries or any depositary receipts representing such securities in any jurisdiction or an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity in relation thereto. In particular, this presentation does not constitute an advertisement or an offer of securities in the Russian Federation.
No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
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This presentation includes statements that are, or may be deemed to be, "forward- looking statements", with respect to the financial condition, results, operations and businesses of X5 Group N.V. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not only relate to historical or current events.
Forward-looking statements often use words such as" anticipate", "target", "expect", "estimate", "intend", "expected", "plan", "goal" believe", or other words of similar meaning. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances, a number of
which are beyond X5 Group N.V's control. As a result,
X5 Group N.V's actual future results may differ materially from the plans, goals and expectations set out in these forward- looking statements. X5 Group N.V. assumes no responsibility to update any of the forward looking statements contained in this presentation.
For Russian law purposes, the securities mentioned in this presentation (the "Securities") represent foreign securities. No prospectus for the issue of the Securities has been or is intended to be registered with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The information provided in this presentation is not intended to advertise or facilitate the offer of the Securities in the territory of the Russian Federation. This presentation does not represent an offer to acquire the Securities or an invitation to make offers to acquire the Securities.
The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information is still in draft form and neither X5 Group N.V. nor any other party is under any duty to update or inform recipients of this presentation of any changes to such information or opinions. In particular, it should be noted that some of the financial information relating to X5 Group N.V. and its subsidiaries contained in this document has not been audited and in some cases is based on management information and estimates.
Neither X5 Group N.V. nor any of its agents, employees or advisors intend or have any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any of the statements contained in this presentation.
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Focus on the fastest-growing market segment
Diverse grocery business with growth potential across convenience, hard discounter and online segments
2023 | 2024E |
2 p.p. | ||
26% | ||
28% | 30% | 31% |
1 p.p.
16% | 1 p.p. 17% | |
17% | 15% |
5% 4% | 6% | 5% | |||||||||
57% | 1 p.p. | 1 p.p. | |||||||||
share of grocery market | |||||||||||
addressable by X5 | |||||||||||
Convenience | Supermarkets | E-grocery | Hard discounters | Specialists | Other (e.g., hypermarkets, traditional trade) | ||||||
х p.p. - y-o-y growth |
2 p.p.
58% 1 p.p.
share of grocery market addressable by X5
Source: Infoline
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Market consolidation is the key source of growth for the top players
Potential for growth in the market shares of top-5 players*
76% | 75% | ||||||
Svaz | Globus | ||||||
1.7% | |||||||
7.0% | |||||||
Tesco | Aldi | ||||||
13.3% | 62% | 61% | |||||
9.5% | |||||||
Auchan | Aldi | 57% | |||||
4.2% | |||||||
Ahold | PPHU | 7.6% | Auchan | ||||
Schwartz | 5.0% | 7.4% | |||||
Delhaize | |||||||
12.2% | 17.4% | Morrison | Système U | 46% | |||
Schwartz | 7.8% | ||||||
Centrale | |||||||
14.0% | Publix 3.7% | ||||||
8.1% | |||||||
Walmart | |||||||
Rewe Group | Ahold Delhaize | ||||||
10.4% | 35% | ||||||
17.1% | E Leclerc | 3.8% | 33% | ||||
Albertsons | Svetofor 1.6% | ||||||
Rewe Group | 12.9% | ||||||
4.8% | |||||||
19.3% | Eurocash | Lenta 2.3% | Carrefour 1.6% | ||||
Sainsbury | Kroger | ||||||
14.1% | Mercury 6.1% | Yildiz 5.7% | |||||
11.5% | 8.1% | ||||||
ITM | Migros 6.0% | ||||||
13.0% | |||||||
Schwartz | Magnit 10.6% | A101 Yeni | |||||
30.5% | Edeka | Jerónimo | Tesco | Walmart | 7.9% | ||
23.2% | 24.4% | 23.5% | Carrefour | 25.2% | X5 Group | ||
BIM | |||||||
16.0% | 14.6% | ||||||
11.8% | |||||||
Czech Rep | Germany | Poland | UK | France | USA | Russia | Turkey |
Continued shift to modern trade and the growing role of nationwide players
24% | 21% | 22% | 20% | 19% |
42% | 42% | 41% | 41% | |
43% | ||||
33% | 36% | 36% | 39% | 40% | |
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Federal chains | Regional modern trade | Traditional trade |
Source: Euromonitor, Infoline (for Russian market only), Company reports, X5 analysis | Source: Infoline |
* 2023 data for Russia, 2021 data for other countries
Macro-trend:
Online
E-grocery share continues to grow, current run-rate estimates twofold growth by 2026.
X5's ambition is to create the most efficient e-grocery business on the market
ONLINE SHARE IN THE FOOD RETAIL MARKET, %
4.0 % 9.8 %
Online market, RUB bln
+33.5%
2,918
918
2023E2027E
Sources: INFOLine
MARKET GROWTH DRIVERS
Regions is a key growth potential
Express delivery - the largest and growing segment
The share of stock up purchases in online is declining
The ultra-fast delivery segment is provided by two players - Samokat and Yandex Lavka
5
TRENDS IN
CONSUMER
PREFERENCES
The option to buy online is becoming a standard, however, the consumer is not always ready to pay for it
The customers order more often but with a lower average ticket, particularly as a result of free and fast delivery
Retailers are forced to invest in free delivery and find new solutions to ensure profitability of the channel
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X5 is a leading Russian food retailer
Q1 2024 Highlights
#1 Russian | 14.6% market share 1 | 24,884 stores | >378 ths | ||
food retailer | |||||
vs 9.5% in 2017 | in 72 Russian regions | employees | |||
by revenue | |||||
+14.4% y-o-y |
Loyal | 79.0 mln | 33.6 mln | ||
customer | ||||
active loyalty card users | MAUs of X5 digital services | |||
base | ||||
>60% of adult population | in Q1 2024 | |||
+54.1% y-o-y |
20 mln
average daily purchases
New and | +81.9% y-o-y | >304 ths | 1,616 | |||||
digital | ||||||||
digital businesses' sales | average number of daily | hard discounters as | ||||||
businesses | ||||||||
growth to RUB 46.6 bln | online orders | of 31 March 2024 | ||||||
Strong | 20.8% 1 | 6.8% 1 | +7.5 p.p. | |||||
financials | revenue growth y-o-y | EBITDA margin (pre-IFRS 16) | adj. ROIC2 growth y-o-y | |||||
- FY 2023 numbers
- ROIC = NOPAT / average (equity + net debt, including short-term financial investment), adjusted for impact from Karusel transformation, tax on investments and tax accrual related to X5's reorganisation in previous periods
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X5 has a leading position in offline
TOP 10 Russian grocery retailers
Company | Market share in 2023 | ||
1 | 14.6% | ||
2 | 10.6% | ||
3 | 6.1% | ||
4 | 2.3% | ||
5 | 1.6% | ||
6 | 1.2% | ||
7 | 1.2% | ||
8 | 1.0% | ||
9 | 1.0% | ||
10 | 0.9% | ||
Top 10 | 40.5% |
TOP 10 Russian e-grocery players
Company | Market share in 2023 | ||
1 | 15.9% | ||
2 | 14.6% | ||
3 | 13.2% | ||
4 | 10.8% | ||
5 | 9.5% | ||
6 | 6.9% | ||
7 | 5.7% | ||
8 | 4.2% | ||
9 | 3.4% | ||
10 | 2.3% | ||
Top 10 | 86.6% | ||
Source: INFOLine
X5 businesses
1,616
Hard discounter stores
Loyalty programme
21,593
Proximity stores
26,103
Pickup points and parcel lockers
Subscription service
73
Dark kitchens (incl. 3 franchisees)
8
Express delivery
8,394
Stores
35
Dark stores
Digital
978 | 612 | |
Supermarkets | Stores |
3
Large dark stores
9
Pyaterochka
Proximity stores
78%
Share of revenue (Q1 2024)
21,593 | >4 THS | 391 SQM | ||
Stores | SKUs | Average selling space | ||
10
Perekrestok
Supermarkets
14%
Share of revenue (Q1 2024)
978 | 11-14THS | 1,112 SQM | |||
Stores | SKUs | Average selling space | |||
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Disclaimer
X5 Retail Group NV published this content on 15 April 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 16 April 2024 07:46:00 UTC.
