Exxon Mobil Corporation : Trending upward
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01/20/2012 | 10:13am
Opinion : Bullish above 88.7 USD
Target price : 94.5 USD Potential: 8.58%
Stop loss: 85 USD
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NYSE
Integrated Oil / Gas |
The largest U.S oil company has very good business model, which is able to overperform when the global economy is slowing. Development project pipelines are among the best in the industry, balance sheets situation is healthy which helps it to make strategic acqusitions.
From fundamental viewpoint, the valorization of the company is low as shown by the ratio “entreprise value/revenue” of 0.88x. Besides the price earning ratio is moderate (estimated 10.6x in 2012). Despite a weak economic context, operating margin (estimated 16% in 2012 from 14% in 2011) are strong, profitability should be equal for the next fiscal year.
Since early december, Exxon’s stock has initiated a sharp bullish trend as shown by a rise of 14.5%.
The move could be continued, bolstered by these moving averages and return to its highest level of 2011 at USD 88.60.
Exceeding the technical line at USD 88.60 would point to ambitious upward targets. In this case, market participants could buy this stock with an initial target of USD 94.50. If investors reduce long-side exposure for profit-taking ; below USD 86 bearish trend would happen and so this strategy would be invalidated.
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Alexandre Nutte
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Valuation |
2013e |
2014e |
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PER (Price / EPS)
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11,5x |
11,2x |
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Capitalization / Revenue
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0,95x |
0,93x |
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EV / Revenue
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0,98x |
0,96x |
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EV / EBITDA
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5,23x |
5,18x |
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Yield (DPS / Price)
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2,67% |
2,89% |
| Profitability |
2013e |
2014e |
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Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales)
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14,6% |
14,6% |
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operating laverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales)
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-1,88x |
0,81x |
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Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue)
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8,26% |
7,99% |
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ROA (Net Profit / Asset)
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14,2% |
14,6% |
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ROE (Net Profit / Equities)
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20,5% |
19,5% |
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Rate of Dividend
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30,7% |
32,3% |
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