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GROUPON INC

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Groupon Inc : Fall again and again

05/22/2012 | 12:07pm
Opinion : Bearish under 13.5 USD
Target price : 9.8 USD
Stop loss: 9.8 USD
NASDAQ
Retail – Discount Stores
Groupon seems to disappoint its investors a little bit more at each session. With a 50% decrease since February, Groupon security is one of the poorest performances of Nasdaq Index.

The fourth quarter earnings publications in february were disappointing for investors. The group published a loss of $9.8 million. The company is investing massively in Russia and China to integrate emerging markets but Groupon is an young company without basis and experience. Competitors are numerous and benefits from historical customer base. Google, Facebook and more others are trying to develop this kind of business.

The stock made a rebound on its USD 9.87 support but moving averages are bearish and Groupon' security is consolidating in the USD 11.50/12.50 area. A new bearish movement could take place on the way to the last historical lowest at USD 9.8.

Investors could sell Groupon' stocks and target a 20% gain with an objective at USD 9.8. A stop loss will be engaged at USD 13.56 to avoid disappointment.
Groupon Inc : Groupon Inc : Fall again and again
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Financial Ratios

Size 2013e 2014e
Capitalization 4 803 M$ -
Company Value 3 438 M$ 3 174 M$
Valuation 2013e 2014e
PER (Price / EPS) 1 296x 71,8x
Capitalization / Revenue 1,89x 1,71x
EV / Revenue 1,35x 1,13x
EV / EBITDA 11,7x 8,91x
Yield (DPS / Price) - -
Profitability 2013e 2014e
Operating Margin (EBIT / Sales) 7,91% 9,07%
operating laverage (Delta EBIT / Delta Sales) - 2,59x
Net Margin (Net Profit / Revenue) 0,32% 2,46%
ROA (Net Profit / Asset) 4,46% 7,86%
ROE (Net Profit / Equities) 12,5% 21,9%
Rate of Dividend - -
Balance Sheet Analysis 2013e 2014e
CAPEX / Sales   2,86% 2,76%
Cash Flow / Sales (Taux d'autofinancement) 7,35% 10,1%
Capital Intensity (Assets / Sales) 0,07x 0,31x
Financial Leverage (Net Debt / EBITDA) -4,66x -4,57x
Income Statement Evolution
Groupon Inc : Income Statement Evolution
More Financials
EPS Revisions
Groupon Inc : EPS Revisions
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