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Announcement: Moody's: Default rate for Asian high-yield non-financial corporates to stay low in 2017

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02/27/2017 | 10:19am CET

Release date- 27022017 - Moody's Investors Service says that the default rate for Asian high-yield non-financial corporates will remain low through to the end of 2017.

'We estimate that the default rate for high-yield non-financial corporates in Asia will register a low 3.1% for the year ending 31 December 2017,' says Clara Lau, a Moody's Group Credit Officer.

Moody's explains that the low default rate estimate is partly due to the likely continuation of accommodative monetary policy by major central banks - with the exception of the US Fed - , as well as continued solid growth of the US economy, and growth in China stabilizing at close to the official target.

'These supportive developments will result in sufficient liquidity for Asian corporates and offset the potential negative effects of interest rate increases by the Fed,' adds Lau.

Moody's conclusions are contained in its just-released report titled 'Default Report: Default Rate for Asian Non-Financial Corporates Expected to Remain Low in 2017,' and is authored by Lau.

Moody's report says that the metals & mining industry will continue to come under the most pressure through 2017 because while commodities prices appear to be bottoming, most are still at low levels. Moody's Credit Transition Model forecasts that the default rate for the metals & mining sector will register 7.6% for the 12 months to 31 December 2017.

Moody's report points out that the Asian high-yield non-financial corporate default rate ended at 1.4% for the 12 months to 31 December 2016. This result was notably lower than the 6.4% registered the year before, with two defaults in 2016 compared to nine in 2015. Both defaulters were metals and mining companies.

And, during 2016, there were no defaults by companies that Moody's rates in China. By contrast, there were four such defaults in 2015. Moody's notes that for 2016, while the financial metrics of many Chinese corporates were under stress due to overcapacity in the commodity markets and/or the general slowdown in the domestic economy, funding remained accessible, which helped alleviate default risk.

In contrast to the lower year-on-year default trend in Asia, Moody's global speculative-grade corporate default rate closed at 4.5% for end-2016, up from 3.6% at end-2015. And, the number of defaulting companies globally reached 144 in 2016 - the highest since 2009 - with the commodity sectors contributing to the largest number of defaults.

Subscribers can access the report at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1054356

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, Sao Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Clara Lau

Senior Vice President

Credit Strategy and Standards

Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.

24/F One Pacific Place

88 Queensway

Hong Kong

China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)

JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350

SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Gary Lau

MD - Corporate Finance

Corporate Finance Group

JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350

SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Releasing Office:

Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.

24/F One Pacific Place

88 Queensway

Hong Kong

China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)

JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350

SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

(c) 2017 Electronic News Publishing -, source ENP Newswire

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Number of Analysts 14
Average target price 113 $
Spread / Average Target -0,26%
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