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Moody : Property sector remains central to China economy - Moody's

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05/26/2018 | 12:45pm CEST

[ET Net News Agency, 25 May 2018] Moody's Investors Service said that the property

market remains as central to China's economy as it did a year ago, largely through its

impact on downstream industries in the supply chain such as cement and steel production.

At the same time, Moody's sees some signs that Chinese economic growth is less directly

linked to investment in the property and construction sectors.

Moody's conclusions are contained in its just-released report "Property -- China: Growth

underpinned by households, constrained by regulations on credit supply".

"In March 2017, we identified four channels -- the supply chain, financial sector,

household sector and government finance -- that drive the potential impact of the property

market on China's macro economy," said Michael Taylor, a Moody's Managing Director and

Chief Credit Officer for Asia Pacific.

"Of the four, the supply chain remains the most important transmission channel to the

wider economy, with 25%-30% of China's GDP connected to demand from the property and

construction sectors," added Taylor.

"The exposure of the financial system has also increased over the past year, largely due

to the rise in mortgage loans issued by the formal banking sector and the increasing role

played by shadow banking in providing credit to the property sector," said Lillian Li, a

Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

"However, tighter regulations for shadow banking are likely to restrict the supply of

credit to these borrowers, leading to some refinancing risk," added Li.

Household leverage increased faster in 2017 than during 2013-16, leading to a

deterioration in household liquidity. However, default risks remain low because of strong

income growth and still-large deposits. Housing affordability has also strengthened

slightly.

In terms of government finance, regional and local governments still rely to a

significant extent on land sales as a revenue source, even as reliance on tax revenues

from the property and construction sectors has declined slightly.

At the same time, two factors continue to mitigate the macroeconomic effect of

developments in the property market. First, monetary and fiscal policy space continues to

provide a buffer against a possible correction in property prices; second urbanization

fuels continue demand for housing, reducing the risk of a sharp and prolonged correction.

(KL)

(c) 2018 ET Net Limited. All rights reserved. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info)., source Middle East & North African Newspapers

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Financials ($)
Sales 2018 4 690 M
EBIT 2018 2 080 M
Net income 2018 1 427 M
Debt 2018 3 549 M
Yield 2018 1,02%
P/E ratio 2018 23,69
P/E ratio 2019 21,28
EV / Sales 2018 7,88x
EV / Sales 2019 7,28x
Capitalization 33 396 M
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Moody's Corporation Technical Analysis Chart | MCO | US6153691059 | 4-Traders
Technical analysis trends MOODY'S CORPORATION
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Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
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Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 14
Average target price 177 $
Spread / Average Target 2,0%
EPS Revisions
Managers
NameTitle
Raymond W. McDaniel President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Henry K. McKinnell Chairman
Michael S. Crimmins Chief Financial Officer, Senior VP & Controller
Tony Stoupas Chief Information Officer & Senior Vice President
Basil L. Anderson Independent Director
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