Talking Points
- GBPUSD near-term rally at risk ahead of UK CPI
- Near-term outlook constructive while above 1.4175/77
- Updated targets & invalidation levels
GBPUSD 30min
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook: Sterling broke above the upper median-line parallel extending off the May 30th high last night with the rally testing confluence resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the decline and the 50-line of the proposed median-line formation off the lows, at 1.4285. Heading into tomorrow’s inflation print, the near-term focus remains weighted to the topside while above 1.4175/77 where the lower median-line parallel converges on a Fibonacci confluence and we will retain this level as our near-term bullish invalidation.
A topside breach targets subsequent resistance objectives at the 1.4350, the upper median-line parallel of the ascending structure off the lows and the 88.6% retracement at 1.4406. Continue tracking this setup and more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk and take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount!
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- The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) has remained net-long the pound since late November with the ratio standing at +1.45 (57% of traders are long- 12.4% lower than the previous day)
- Short positions are 20.3% higher than yesterday and 13.6% above levels seen last week.
- Open interest is 1.0% lower than yesterday and 1.9% above its monthly average
- The decline in long positioning suggests that the retail long-bias may be waning (bullish near-term)
Why and how do we use the SSI in trading? View our video and download the free indicator here
Relevant Data Releases This Week
Other Setups in Play:
- Webinar: USD in Free Fall- Key Crosses in Focus this Week
- USD/CAD Scalp Targets Ahead of Jobs- Key Support 1.2965
- GBP/USD 1.4175 is Near-Term Bull/Bear Dividing Line
- AUD/JPY Game Plan: Sell the Bounce- Bearish Invalidation 84.82
- CAD/JPY Reversal Approaching Initial Support - Bearish Sub-86.53
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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