The Paris stock market (+2.4% to 7,644, an all-time record) offers us a scenario that doesn't materialize even once in 1,000 years (once every 5 years... in reality, it's even rarer): a huge opening gap, a 2% outperformance of the average European index thanks to the rise of a single stock, but not the least, since it's LVMH with +14% (probably the biggest 24-hour rise in history), which in a single session wiped out all the ground lost since August 31, 2023 (at 780E).
It's also thanks to LVMH that the Euro-Stoxx50 (+1.2%, but 0% without LVMH, Hermès and L'Oréal) is heading for a new historic intraday (4,639) and closing (in the same waters) record double.

LVMH's status as the CAC40's No. 1 capitalization is being spectacularly reinforced (representing 15.75% of the index, a record): trading in the stock accounts for almost 40% of the Paris market's activity (780MnsE), while the other 39 share the remaining 1,100MnsE.

Although results came in "better than expected", the rise in profits was not in the "double digits" as has been the case for many years.... but the frenzy of buyers, with orders 'at any price', seems to testify to a monumental 'short squeeze' which is leading to massive buybacks on any terms.

Buybacks of 'shorts' are in turn taking place on Pernod Ricard (+8%), Kering (+7.5%) and Hermès (+5.8%).

Luxury goods accounted for 150% of the CAC40's rise on Friday and over the past week, and 100% of the CAC40's gain since January 1... all in a single session and with 3 stocks 'weighing' 26% of the CAC40's 'capi'.

S&P500 gains +2.6% in 2024 thanks to 3 stocks, Paris turns positive again with just 1 .

Bernard Arnault's group reported last night that it will achieve sales of 86.2 billion euros in 2023, up 13% organically on 2022 (+9% on a reported basis). LVMH's net income, Group share, amounted to 15.2 billion euros, up 8%.

Wall Street (+0.1%) erases its initial losses and the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite are back in contention for a 6th consecutive record... and a 7th remains uncertain for the Nasdaq-100, weighed down by Intel's -11.2% plunge) despite the reassuring publication of the week's most eagerly-awaited figure in the US: the PCE price inflation index stood at +2.6% annualized in December 2023, stable compared with November, according to the Commerce Department.

Excluding food and energy, two usually volatile categories, however, the index fell from +3.2% to +2.9% month-on-month, again in line with expectations, according to the broke

Another very strong figure: consumer spending in the US rose by 0.7% last month compared with November, on income growth of just 0.3% month-on-month, according to the Commerce Department.

Growth in consumer spending was therefore slightly higher than the 0.5% anticipated by Jefferies, while US household income was fully in line with the broker's forecast

In the Eurozone, French household confidence improved again in January, according to the Insee synthetic indicator, which gained two points to 91, but remains well below its long-term average (100 between January 1987 and December 2023).

On the other hand, German household sentiment deteriorated sharply as February approached, according to the monthly survey by the GfK institute, further darkening the picture of the German economy at the start of the year.

The consumer sentiment index, calculated on the basis of a survey of 2,000 people, sank to -29.7 points, compared with -25.4 in January.

Brent crude stabilized at $82.1 a barrel, while the euro gained 0.2% against the greenback, at around 1.0865.

On the bond front, the 10-year T-Bond (+2pts) is hovering around 4.15%, while its German equivalent of the same maturity is also up +2pts: the Bund is hovering around 2.303%, our OATs are down +2.7pts to 2.80%... but this has no impact whatsoever on equities, with LVMH up +14%.

In company news, Stef posted cumulative sales for 2023 of 4.44 billion euros, up 6.8% (+0.7% on a like-for-like basis and excluding sales of goods for out-of-home catering).

Rémy Cointreau (+16% on massive buybacks) announces sales of 956.6 million euros for the first nine months of its 2023-24 financial year, down 26.7% on a reported basis and 22.7% organically (i.e. +16.7% on the first nine months of 2019-20).

Finally, in line with its year-end announcements, Casino reports the completion of the sale of its 34.05% direct stake in Exito, as part of the takeover bids launched in the United States and Colombia by the Calleja group.


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