The Paris Bourse (+0.2%) ended the month of January on a high note, with the CAC40 setting a new record, testing the symbolic 7,700 mark (+2.2% year-on-year)... before easing a little towards 7,690.
The Euro-Stoxx50 is at a standstill (+0.1% at 4.665) after gaining 0.3% this morning to set a new all-time high of 4,674.7Pts.

Since last October, the end of the calendar month has given rise to bullish rallies that increasingly resemble those of the '3 Witches' (when the underlying trend was positive), and the Dow Jones (+0.2% to 38.550Pts) looks set to set a 6th consecutive record (and that makes 8 since January 1st, with today's at 35,588).
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is off -1% from the outset, in the wake of AMD (-3.1%) and Alphabet (-6.5%), while the S&P500 is also off -0.7%.

There is still plenty of room for optimism on the rates markets, which are easing significantly (see details below) as the Fed presents the conclusions of its strategy meeting this evening, after the Paris market closes.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also hold a press conference in the evening, a meeting that is traditionally closely followed by the markets, and all the more so at a time of uncertainty as to the evolution of central bank monetary policies...

While the prospect of a 'status quo' is hardly in doubt, market participants will be trying to read between the lines and pick up any clues as to the pace and timing of rate cuts.

"The Federal Reserve is likely to put a clear end to hopes of a rate cut soon (March) and quickly", anticipates Emmanuel Auboyneau, associate manager at Amplegest.

According to him, 'Jerome Powell will try to calm things down, while keeping the door open for future meetings, depending on the economic data'.

In the meantime, investors took note of the 'ADP' barometer of employment in the US private sector: +107.000 new hires in January, well below economists' expectations (of around 150,000 according to Jefferies), but also down sharply on the previous month's 158,000 (revised from 164,000 in the initial estimate).

There were also 'figures' this morning in Europe: a further fall (-1.8%) in French industrial producer prices (PPI) in December over one year, after -0.5% in November.
Insee specifies that PPI are virtually stable (+0.1% after +0.2% in November) excluding energy.

Also according to Insee (provisional estimate), consumer prices in France are set to rise by 3.1% year-on-year in January 2024, down significantly from 3.7% in December 2023.

Finally, the German economy contracted in the fourth quarter, according to a new estimate published by the Federal Statistical Office, with GDP down by 0.3% in the last three months of the year compared with the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, in line with an initial estimate made public on January 15.
There were also 'stats' in China this morning, and the economy remains in contraction territory, with manufacturing activity contracting for the 4th consecutive month in January: the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.2 in January, compared with 49.0 in December.

Chinese indices continued their correction, with -1.4% to -1.5% in Shanghai and Hong-Kong, -5.7% in Shenzhen... which is now down -16% since January 1.

On the bond front, OATs and Bunds once again reversed course and, for the 3rd consecutive session, shifted 5pts in the opposite direction to the previous day: our OATs thus eased to 2.673%, Bunds by -6pts to 2.178% and across the Atlantic, T-Bonds fell into euphoria with -9.5pts to 3.9600% just a few hours before the FED statement.
The Dollar is feeling the pinch, correcting by -0.3%, with the Euro climbing back towards $1.0880.

In French company news, Vivendi has gone back on its demerger project and is considering a division into four entities: Canal+, Havas, a company combining publishing and distribution assets (interests in Lagardère and Prisma Media) and an investment company (financial interests in culture, media and entertainment).

Nexans has informed the markets that the French Competition Authority (Autorité de la Concurrence - AC) carried out searches on three of its sites in France on Tuesday, without specifying which ones. According to the Group, these operations are part of an investigation targeting the energy cable distribution sector in the French overseas departments and territories.

Finally, last night, Groupe Seb announced that it expects to achieve sales of 8006 ME in 2023, with organic growth of 5.3%. This performance is in line with the Group's target of organic sales growth of around 5% in 2023.

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