The first camp is enthusiastic about the unique positioning of the Dutch group in the very fashionable semiconductor sector. ASML is a true technological monopoly in this field, selling ultraviolet lithography equipment to chip and circuit manufacturers, making the best margins in the sector.

It has put the old adage - in a gold rush, it's better to sell the shovels and picks than to dig the holes - to good use, increasing its sales fourfold in ten years.

The other side of the argument will surely choke on the fact that half of ASML deliveries are to Taiwan, a quarter to South Korea, and 9% directly to China - a country on which Holland has fully aligned itself with the American position. One can easily imagine the consequences if the geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific were to degenerate.

Moreover, ASML is not spared from the cold snap that is affecting the semiconductor sector as a whole. If sales and margins for the quarter remain equal, it is thanks to orders placed. In the first quarter of 2023, orders are down by 40%.

As a result, the order book has stopped growing. But it remains remarkably strong, at $39 billion, or six years of sales - solid life insurance in such a cyclical industry. But there is reason to fear that we have reached a turning point, even if the secular trends remain buoyant.

It is true that the previous two fiscal years were exceptional, and by extension dangerous to extrapolate. As for the opposition between China and the United States, the worst is to be feared and experience proves that the gamble on rationality does not always pay off.

Those who did so in the case of Russia, for example, were disappointed. The history books are full of comparable situations, and they remind anyone who wants to hear that the reasons of the state willingly transcend economic interests when their deepest sensibilities are hurt.

ASML is slowing down very strongly on share buybacks, divided by five compared to last year despite comparable valuation levels. The group is thus sending a very clear message - that of expecting a difficult future.