BANCOLOMBIA S.A. Earnings Results 1Q23
1Q23 Overview
Financial Highlights
Credit Risk
Macroeconomic
Trends
- Loan book down -1.0% QoQ and up 20.1% YoY
- Deposits up 0.01% QoQ and 20.4% YoY
- NIM 7.2%
- Net income COP 1.7 trillion and ROE 17.7%
- Basel III CET1 Capital Ratio of 9.8% and Total Capital Ratio of 12.0 %
- Net provision charges amounted to COP 2.0 trillion up 17.5% QoQ equivalent to a CoR of 3.1%
- Coverage ratio of 218%
- Allowances represent 5.9% of total loans
- Colombia's post-pandemic economic rebound came to a halt in late 2022, a trend that has continued well into 2023. High inflation, rising interest rates and lagging consumer demand has resulted in an inevitable slowdown.
- Nonetheless, monetary tightening may soon reach the end of its cycle as inflation recedes and economic activity decelerates.
Colombia's Economic Outlook
Economic indicators for Colombia
Macroeconomic Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023p | 2024p |
Real GDP growth (% change, end of year) | 3.2% | -7.3% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% |
Unemployment (% change, end of year) | 11.5% | 19.1% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.2% |
Consumer prices (% change, end of year) | 3.8% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
Central Bank reference rate (%, end of year) | 4.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 7.5% |
Current account balance (% GDP) | -4.6% | -3.4% | -5.6% | -6.2% | -4.1% | -3.5% |
Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -2.5% | -7.8% | -7.0% | -5.3% | -4.4% | -4.2% |
Exchange rate (USDCOP, year average) | $ 3,281 | $ 3,693 | $ 3,744 | $ 4,256 | $ 4,716 | $ 4,625 |
Depreciation (% change, year average) | 11.0% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 13.7% | 10.8% | -1.9% |
Source: Grupo Bancolombia, DANE, Banco de la República, Ministerio de Hacienda.
Economic Growth
- Colombia experienced an impressive economic rebound in 2021-22, mostly led by consumer demand, services and manufacturing.
- 2023 will prove far more challenging, given inflationary pressures on households, rising interest rates and lagging demand.
- Unemployment has declined slightly in 2023, hovering above 10%, but formal employment lacks behind.
Inflation and Interest Rates
- Inflation probably peaked at 13.3% during March and has begun to gradually fall in response to decreasing monetary stimulus and economic slowdown.
- Overall, inflation has been led by stubbornly-high food and energy prices, but core inflation has decreased substantially, favoring a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Central Bank.
- The Central Bank´s reference rate saw, what could be, its last increase reaching 13.25%. Nonetheless, the anticipated economic downturn could motivate interest rate cuts before year end.
Public Finances
- The fiscal deficit reached its worst level in 2020 but has managed to steer its course in recent years, driven by high oil prices and increasing tax revenues.
- The Government has stated its commitment to complying with fiscal rule targets.
Competitive advantage to adjust to credit cycles and preserve long term profitability
Attracts sticky low- cost deposits and fee income
Exponential growth in clients
+
Digital evolution
=
Feeds risk model with | Growth in transactions | Supports a balance sheet |
information to anticipate to | structure that enhances NIM | |
credit cycles | performance |
Transactions as a driver for sticky, low-cost deposits…
Clients & Transactions - Colombia
CAGR: 10%
19.9 | 19.0 | 1,450.0 | |||
17.5 | |||||
17.9 | |||||
15.7 | 1,213 | 1,250.0 | |||
15.9 | 983.9 | ||||
CAGR: 21% | |||||
1,050.0 | |||||
13.9 | 792.9 | ||||
13.2 | |||||
850.0 | |||||
11.9 | |||||
650.0 | |||||
9.9 | |||||
531.1 | |||||
7.9 | 450.0 | ||||
1Q20 | 1Q21 | 1Q22 | 1Q23 |
Clients Transactions
Figures in Million
Deposits- Colombia
153.9
132.1
116.4118.6
1Q20 | 1Q21 | 1Q22 | 1Q23 |
Market Share Transactions- Colombia
73.6%
71.0% | |||||||
66.8% | |||||||
62.0% | |||||||
57.0% | 55.6% | ||||||
52.4% | 46.0% | 47.0% | 44.9% | ||||
42.0% | 43.0% | ||||||
1H20 | 2H20 | 1H21 | 2H21 | 1H22 | 2H22 | ||
Online | Mobile | ||||||
Savings Accounts- Colombia | |||
16.0 | 15.6 | 17.0 | |
15.0 | |||
12.5 | 15.0 | ||
14.0 | |||
13.0 | 13.6 | ||
13.0 |
12.011.5
11.0
11.0
10.0 | 11.5 | |||
9.0 | 9.0 | |||
8.0 | 6.0 | 6.6 | ||
7.0 | 7.0 | |||
5.8 |
6.0
5.0
5.04.8
4.0 | 3.0 | |||||||
1Q21 | 1Q22 | 1Q23 | ||||||
Bancolombia | A la mano | Nequi | ||||||
COP Trillion | Million of Accounts |
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Disclaimer
Bancolombia SA published this content on 11 May 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 11 May 2023 00:43:02 UTC.
