DOLLAR TREE, INC. |
Market Closed -
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 121.7 USD | +0.04% |
|
-0.24% | -14.30% |
| Apr. 16 | Evercore ISI Cuts Dollar Tree's Price Target to $142 From $144, Maintains In Line Rating | MT |
| Apr. 15 | JPMorgan Adjusts Dollar Tree's Price Target to $152 From $144, Keeps Overweight Rating | MT |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: February | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 20,710 | 24,681 | 29,658 | 33,158 | 30,221 | 26,526 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 23,943 | 26,491 | 32,090 | 35,937 | 32,962 | 29,468 | 29,155 | 28,217 |
| P/E ratio | 25.2 x | 18.6 x | 22.7 x | 20.8 x | -30.5 x | 17.5 x | 15 x | 13 x |
| Yield | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 0.88 x | 0.97 x | 1.13 x | 1.17 x | 0.99 x | 0.84 x | 0.8 x | 0.76 x |
| EV / Revenue | 1.01 x | 1.04 x | 1.22 x | 1.27 x | 1.08 x | 0.94 x | 0.88 x | 0.8 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 10.7 x | 10.3 x | 12.7 x | 12 x | 12.5 x | 9.64 x | 8.53 x | 7.34 x |
| EV / FCF | 28.7 x | 14.6 x | 78.2 x | 98.2 x | 56.5 x | 222 x | 38.1 x | 22.8 x |
| FCF Yield | 3.49% | 6.86% | 1.28% | 1.02% | 1.77% | 0.45% | 2.62% | 4.38% |
| Price to Book | 3.33 x | 3.42 x | 3.91 x | - | - | 2.82 x | 2.51 x | 1.77 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 236,662 | 235,192 | 224,956 | 221,184 | 217,872 | 217,983 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 87.51 | 104.9 | 131.8 | 149.9 | 138.7 | 121.7 | 121.7 | 121.7 |
| Announcement Date | 3/4/20 | 3/3/21 | 3/2/22 | 3/1/23 | 3/13/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: February | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 23,611 | 25,509 | 26,310 | 28,332 | 30,604 | 31,430 | 33,111 | 35,054 |
| EBITDA 1 | 2,245 | 2,574 | 2,527 | 3,004 | 2,629 | 3,057 | 3,417 | 3,845 |
| EBIT 1 | 1,600 | 1,888 | 1,811 | 2,236 | 1,788 | 2,068 | 2,395 | 2,751 |
| Operating Margin | 6.78% | 7.4% | 6.88% | 7.89% | 5.84% | 6.58% | 7.23% | 7.85% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 1,099 | 1,740 | 1,632 | 2,111 | -988.7 | 1,986 | 2,299 | 2,638 |
| Net income 1 | 827 | 1,342 | 1,328 | 1,615 | -998.4 | 1,508 | 1,746 | 1,999 |
| Net margin | 3.5% | 5.26% | 5.05% | 5.7% | -3.26% | 4.8% | 5.27% | 5.7% |
| EPS 2 | 3.470 | 5.650 | 5.800 | 7.210 | -4.550 | 6.966 | 8.090 | 9.341 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 835 | 1,818 | 410.3 | 366 | 583.2 | 132.8 | 765.3 | 1,236 |
| FCF margin | 3.54% | 7.12% | 1.56% | 1.29% | 1.91% | 0.42% | 2.31% | 3.52% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 37.19% | 70.6% | 16.23% | 12.18% | 22.18% | 4.35% | 22.4% | 32.13% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 100.97% | 135.44% | 30.9% | 22.66% | - | 8.81% | 43.83% | 61.8% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 3/4/20 | 3/3/21 | 3/2/22 | 3/1/23 | 3/13/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: February | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 6,418 | 7,077 | 6,903 | 6,768 | 6,940 | 7,721 | 7,324 | 7,325 | 7,315 | 8,640 | 7,653 | 7,590 | 7,618 | 8,490 | 8,049 |
| EBITDA 1 | 489 | 767.5 | 920.4 | 698.9 | 570.3 | 814.6 | 616.1 | 490.8 | 517.5 | 975.3 | 676.6 | 612.8 | 689.7 | 1,107 | 756 |
| EBIT 1 | 310.5 | 578.8 | 731.5 | 505.4 | 381.3 | 618.1 | 419.7 | 287.8 | 301.7 | 749.1 | 435.1 | 370 | 438.6 | 825.9 | 503.5 |
| Operating Margin | 4.84% | 8.18% | 10.6% | 7.47% | 5.49% | 8.01% | 5.73% | 3.93% | 4.12% | 8.67% | 5.69% | 4.87% | 5.76% | 9.73% | 6.26% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 276.9 | 499.2 | 697.5 | 474.7 | 348.4 | 590 | 393.7 | 263.7 | 271.1 | -1,917 | 408.9 | 341.7 | 420.1 | 816.1 | 475.8 |
| Net income 1 | 216.8 | 454.2 | 536.4 | 359.9 | 266.9 | 452.2 | 299 | 200.4 | 212 | -1,710 | 311.7 | 261.8 | 318.7 | 615.9 | 362.9 |
| Net margin | 3.38% | 6.42% | 7.77% | 5.32% | 3.85% | 5.86% | 4.08% | 2.74% | 2.9% | -19.79% | 4.07% | 3.45% | 4.18% | 7.25% | 4.51% |
| EPS 2 | 0.9600 | 2.010 | 2.370 | 1.600 | 1.200 | 2.040 | 1.350 | 0.9100 | 0.9700 | -7.850 | 1.437 | 1.202 | 1.464 | 2.862 | 1.685 |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 11/23/21 | 3/2/22 | 5/26/22 | 8/25/22 | 11/22/22 | 3/1/23 | 5/25/23 | 8/24/23 | 11/29/23 | 3/13/24 | - | - | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: February | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 3,233 | 1,810 | 2,432 | 2,779 | 2,741 | 2,942 | 2,629 | 1,691 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 1.44 x | 0.7029 x | 0.9623 x | 0.925 x | 1.043 x | 0.9623 x | 0.7693 x | 0.4398 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 835 | 1,818 | 410 | 366 | 583 | 133 | 765 | 1,236 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 19.1% | 19.8% | 17.7% | 19.6% | 16.1% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 5% | 6.66% | 6.3% | 7.22% | 5.74% | 6.88% | 7.41% | 7.44% |
| Assets 1 | 16,538 | 20,135 | 21,078 | 22,372 | -17,387 | 21,921 | 23,548 | 26,865 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 26.20 | 30.70 | 33.70 | - | - | 43.10 | 48.60 | 68.90 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 7.850 | 11.40 | 6.250 | 7.210 | 12.20 | 12.00 | 14.40 | 15.70 |
| Capex 1 | 1,035 | 899 | 1,021 | 1,249 | 2,101 | 2,224 | 2,181 | 1,958 |
| Capex / Sales | 4.38% | 3.52% | 3.88% | 4.41% | 6.87% | 7.08% | 6.59% | 5.58% |
| Announcement Date | 3/4/20 | 3/3/21 | 3/2/22 | 3/1/23 | 3/13/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
C+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
29
Last Close Price
121.7
USD
Average target price
149.4
USD
Spread / Average Target
+22.81%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.30% | 26.53B | |
| +7.53% | 2.43B |
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- Financials Dollar Tree, Inc.
